What’s With All the Jake Arrieta Home Runs, Man? And Other Bullets

May 27, 2017

It kills me when I can’t stay up for a game. Last year, I stayed up for all West Coast and extra-inning games. Didn’t miss a single one. But this year, we’ve now got The Littlest Girl (an infant) in addition to The Little Girl and The Little Boy. My (Eastern Time Zone) inability to stay up for last night’s game, then, is for two reasons: (1) I’m just extra tired all the time because kids of this age are great, but tiring; and (2) I can’t afford to be a wreck the next day when I’m trying to be a good dad.

So, that is to say: sorry not sorry that I didn’t make it to the end of last night’s game.

All pitchers make mistakes. It happens in every start: you’re trying to stay down and away, and you catch too much of the plate, and get it a little elevated. But the batter fouls it off. He shakes his head, frustrated that he missed his pitch. Can’t hit them all. When you’re following the pitcher’s team in that situation, you don’t always notice those pitches. You see a foul ball, and you start thinking about the implications of that strike. When the batter doesn’t miss the mistake, though, you notice. You lament. You wonder why the pitcher keeps screwing up.

Embedded in there is a luck element we don’t talk about too much, because it’s almost impossible to quantify and because there’s obviously skill and performance intermingled in there. Some pitchers, over the course of a season, get more lucky than others when it comes to batters missing their mistakes. The skill aspects involve velocity and movement (more margin for error when you do make a mistake), but, again, we’re talking about the universe of pitches that are already mistakes. And, through no fault or skill of their own, some pitchers are going to give up more damage on mistakes than others in a given season. I wish we knew how to account for the skill part of that and the luck part of that.

The problem, of course, is on a given pitch, you can’t really know how much “luck” or “blame” to assign for a negative outcome. All we can really do is say “well, that was a bad pitch, and when you make a bad pitch, you put yourself at serious risk for the very thing that happened.” And the more times it happens, the more you start to think there has to be some reason, beyond mere luck, that a certain pitcher’s mistakes are being punished more often than others.

That is all background, of course, to Jake Arrieta’s season so far. He’s striking guys out, and he’s not walking them. He looks like he has good command more often than not. I like what I see. It’s just that he’s making some mistakes up in the zone, and it seems like they’re always getting punished. The two homers and run-scoring double he gave up last night were all on pitches belt high, which is not where you want to live (even if, again, you’ll often get away with it). It’s frustrating, because when a dude strikes out nine and walks one, and gives up only five hits, you expect that was a really good start … unless those hits were for extra bases. So it was last night, and it’s been for Arrieta all year – he’s up to 10 homers in just 56.2 innings. In general, he’s giving up too much air contact (his 41.1% groundball rate is WAY down from the last couple years when he was above 50%), and much more of that air contact is leaving the park (16.1% HR/FB ratio). A ratio that high is almost always *some* bad luck, but it’s also sometimes just a reflection of simply giving up too much hard contact.

Joe Maddon’s perspective on this particular issue sounds a lot like I think mine would (Cubs.com): “My analysis would be the homers [he’s giving up are because] he’s getting in some counts and making mistakes and they’re not missing them. Maybe because the velocity is not 95, 93 [mph] might bleed into that a little bit, but I thought he had good movement today, a good breaking ball. There’s nothing to criticize. They just hit homers.” In other words, Arrieta is making mistakes in situations where you especially don’t want to make mistakes … but you don’t always expect those to wind up as dingers.

The Adrian Gonzalez homer, by the way, was his first of the season. Naturally.

The Cubs and Dodgers, and their front offices, have developed a friendly rivalry (CSN), which is what it should be between two franchises that are well-positioned for near-term success, have young talent, and have resources. It will be interesting to see, in the coming years, how the Dodgers use their extreme resource advantage, though, with the new CBA adding significant baseball-related penalties for overspending the luxury tax limit.

As a pace-of-play truther, I greeted this FiveThirtyEight study with sheer dread: the longer a pitcher takes between pitches, the more incremental velocity he’s able to add. Fffffffuuuuuuu … It’s not a huge amount of velocity, but, according to the data, and speaking very broadly, if you increase your wait time from 10 seconds to 25 seconds, you can add about 0.3 mph. For some pitchers who prefer a certain rhythm, it might not be worth the wait, but for others who really want to max out velocity? I kind hope this study doesn’t get out. It is a further confirmation, by the way, of a theory I’ve had: if you want to improve pace of play while simultaneously reducing the soaring strikeout totals that have accompanied rising pitcher velocity, a pitch clock is a two-birds-one-stone situation. And it could be three birds, because fewer strikeouts means more balls in play, which in turn means an even further improvement in pace of play/actual game action.

And sure enough, by the way, pace of play (and length of game) is slowing down this year, often in egregious ways. Hardcore fans like us, we don’t necessarily mind. But more casual fans? New fans? Younger fans? I am convinced that, at the margins, they do care about how much action there is in a game, and how long the game overall lasts. Given that the median age of a baseball fan is in the 50s and increases by one every year, this remains a serious issue for the sport as a whole.

Scott Boras says the only time he’s seen Kris Bryant show anxiety: when he’s anticipating donuts (Tribune).

Good job, good try, good effort:

Alllllllllllllmost had it.

(via @MattJ_Sports) pic.twitter.com/G61ZhaINBv

— Baseball is Fun (@flippingbats) May 27, 2017

Amazon is having a Memorial Day sale on magazine subscriptions, with a ton of them just $5 to $10.

Ah, the time Jose Canseco’s head caused a home run – yesterday was the 24th anniversary of that iconic, ridiculous play.

If you’re looking ahead to Father’s Day, Fanatics has a Cubs #1 Dad shirt for your Cubs fan pop.

written by

Brett Taylor

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs Org Homer Party: 13 Homers for the Organization

The big league Cubs last night beat the Astros largely on the strength of the long ball, scoring six of their seven runs that way. Cody Bellinger kicked things off with a monster two-run shot, and Mike Tauchman followed with...

Brett Taylor

Apr 24, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Oh, Come On: Cody Bellinger Lifted Mid-Game with an Apparent Injury (UPDATE: X-Rays Negative)

The Cubs cannot catch a break this year, man. They've already dealt with injuries to Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, Julian Merryweather, Seiya Suzuki, and Ian Happ (did I forget anyone?). And tonight, it seems maybe something...

Michael Cerami

Apr 23, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Enhanced Box Score: Cubs 7, Astros 2 – April 23, 2024

Well there was one big thing not to like about tonight's game - Cody Bellinger was lifted with a right rib contusion after colliding with the outfield wall - and about a million things that were great. And since we...

Michael Cerami

Apr 23, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Mike Tauchman Did it AGAIN – Second Oppo Homer of the Game!

Nothing like a little insurance late. Mike Tauchman, who already hit his first home run of the season earlier in this game, just hit his second home run in the 8th! Another opposite field blast for Tauchman, who's been hitting...

Michael Cerami

Apr 23, 2024

Chicago Cubs

James Triantos Homers TWICE for the Smokies

It really is a Cubs homer party up and down the system. In Chicago, Cody Bellinger and Mike Tauchman have gone deep. At Myrtle Beach, Christian Hernandez and Jefferson Encarnacion each homered. At South Bend, Yohendrick Pinango homered. And at...

Michael Cerami

Apr 23, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Kevin Alcantara Led Off Tonight’s Game with a Bomb (UPDATE: And Then Did It Again!)

Kevin Alcantara wasted no time giving the Tennessee Smokies the lead on Tuesday night (or maybe he just wanted to be a spiritual part of the homer party going on at Wrigley Field). Facing off against the Rocket City Trash...

Elias Schuster

Apr 23, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Mike Tauchman’s First Homer of the Year Caps Off a 5-Run Cubs Ambush!

I don't like to use "ambush" lightly. But what would you call it when the Cubs put five balls in play over 100 MPH, including a single, a double, and two home runs en route to putting five runs on...

Michael Cerami

Apr 23, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Ian Happ Hit Missed a Homer by a Foot, So Cody Bellinger Launched One into Space to Pick Him UP

Ian Happ was back in the Cubs lineup tonight after missing a few games with a sore hamstring. And in his first at-bat back, he sent one 412 feet to dead-center field for a VERY long double (Statcast says it...

Michael Cerami

Apr 23, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Pre-Gamin’: Astros at Cubs (6:40 CT) – Lineups, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

CUBS LINEUP — The Chicago Cubs are back in action tonight for the first of three games against the Houston Astros at Wrigley Field. Here's a look at the Cubs lineup for Game 1. Chicago Cubs Lineup: Nico Hoerner, 2B...

Michael Cerami

Apr 23, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Jefferson Rojas Has the Longest Active Hitting Streak in High-A

I know what you're thinking – what the heck is this basketball junkie doing over here on our turf!? He normally only shows up when he accidentally puts his Bulls articles in the wrong category! I need a little palate cleanser...

Elias Schuster

Apr 23, 2024

Picks

Today’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets – Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Today's NBA playoff schedule has two exciting matchups in store. Among those games is the Miami Heat taking on the Boston Celtics.One of the most fun ways to wager on the NBA is via NBA player prop bets. There are...

Data Skrive

Apr 24, 2024

Picks

Guardians vs. Red Sox Probable Starting Pitchers – April 24

After winning their past five games, the Cleveland Guardians (17-6) host the Boston Red Sox (13-11) at Progressive Field on Wednesday at 6:10 PM ET.This contest's pitching matchup is set, as the Guardians will send Carlos Carrasco (1-1) to the...

Data Skrive

Apr 24, 2024

NFL

Seattle Seahawks 3-Round Mock Draft: Exploring Potential Picks and Trade Back Options

Seattle Seahawks 3-Round Mock Draft - With the 16th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, General Manager John Schneider has a crucial decision to make – continue the rebuild by focusing on defense for new head coach Mike Macdonald, or invest in...

Ryan Noonan

Apr 24, 2024

Chicago Cubs

The MLB schedule today, which includes the Boston Red Sox squaring off against the Cleveland Guardians as one of 15 games, should provide some fireworks.One of the most fun ways to wager on baseball is via MLB player prop bets....

Data Skrive

Apr 24, 2024

What’s With All the Jake Arrieta Home Runs, Man? And Other Bullets

Read More

more cubs news

Latest News

more cubs news

Most Popular

Most Popular

Latest News

Most Popular

Most Popular