Never Tell Me the Odds? Bah, I’m Telling You the Cubs’ NLDS and World Series Odds Anyway

Tonight, the Chicago Cubs are heading to the nation’s capital to take on the Washington Nationals in the first of a best-of-five National League Divisional Series.

And although we’ve sometimes joked about the Cubs underdog status in this one, it’s really quite true. According to at least three measures, which we’ll cover below, the Washington Nationals are the odds on favorites to win and continue their march to the World Series. Of course, if I may speak for all of us … We’ll see about that.

Never tell me the odds …

At ESPN David Schoenfield and Bradford Doolittle have the most entertaining interactive odds graphic ever. Seriously, if you are bored and have some time check this out, because it’s a ton of fun to peruse each individual team’s odds from far away.

In any case, according to Schoenfield and Doolittle, the Indians (26%), Dodgers (17%), and Astros (16%) have the best odds of winning the World Series, while the Cubs (10%) rank fifth. That’s notable, of course, because our beloved Cubs fall in just barely behind the Nationals (11%), who appear to be the fourth most likely team to win the last game of the season.

As for the NLDS, itself, the Cubs odds are pretty significantly below 50/50 (in a relative way – keep in mind, in a short series, deviating much from a coin flip is really significant). According to ESPN, the Cubs have just a 45.9% chance of making it through the first round of the postseason. This feels a bit low to me, but, frankly, I do believe the Nationals are arguably one of the toughest draws in a short series, given their starting pitching. Of course, Max Scherzer’s health remains up in the air, so I return you to an oldie, but a goodie: we’ll see.

Moving on … although the FanGraphs odds page is a little less exciting to look at, the numbers are a tiny bit more encouraging. According to their numbers, the Indians (19.7%) are still the favorites to win the World Series, but their odds of doing so are far lower. Like at ESPN, FanGraphs follows the Indians up with the Dodgers (16.1%), Astros (15.3%), and, ultimately, the Nationals (12.8%). But unlike ESPN, the Cubs aren’t their fifth choice for the championship. Instead, they fall dead last among divisional leaders (10.8%) and ahead of only the two Wild Card teams.

As for the NLDS, however, their odds are better here (47.8% FanGraphs has updated these odds to 49.8% since this post was written) than they were at ESPN. They’re still underdogs, mind you, but just barely and that’s likely to be the case the whole way. Even still, something in the 47-50% range is fine and a first-game victory would swing those odds wildly in such a short series.

And finally, at FiveThirtyEight, the World Series odds, in order, are quite familiar: Indians (26%), Dodgers (17%), Astros (16%), Nationals (11%), Cubs (10%). In this instance, the Cubs are more heavily favored than the Yankees, Red Sox, and Diamondbacks, but still fall short of their NLDS matchup in the Nationals.

HOWEVA, with a 48% chance of winning the NLDS, FiveThirtyEight does give the Cubs the best chances of moving past round one (well, they did before FanGraphs upped their’s). Decided underdogs? Yes, but will you take those odds? Well, yeah, you will, because you have no choice and they’re the best ones on the table. 🙂

So, let’s recap:

According to these three measures, the Cubs have just under a 1 in 2 chance of moving past the first round and about a 1 in 10 chance of repeating as World Series champions. All things considered, it’s not half-bad.

And, hey, maybe going back to being the underdogs will be a good thing.

written by

Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

more cubs news

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

Latest News

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

In their season opener on Friday, Corbin Carroll and the Arizona Diamondbacks take on Nolan Jones and the Colorado Rockies, with first pitch scheduled for 9:40 PM ET at Chase Field.Keep reading to find out how to watch the Arizona-Colorado...

Guardians vs. Athletics: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

Logan Allen will take the mound for the Cleveland Guardians when they square off against starter Ross Stripling and the Oakland Athletics in their season opener on Friday, with first pitch at 9:40 PM ET.Find out how to watch the...

How to Watch Mariners vs. Red Sox: Live Stream or on TV

In their season opener on Friday, Julio Rodriguez and the Seattle Mariners play Rafael Devers and the Boston Red Sox, with first pitch scheduled for 9:40 PM ET at T-Mobile Park.Keep reading to see how to watch the Seattle-Boston matchup...

Padres vs. Giants: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

The San Francisco Giants (0-1), led by Jorge Soler, visit Fernando Tatis Jr. and the San Diego Padres (2-1) at 9:40 PM ET on Friday.If you're intending to watch this game, keep reading for streaming and TV options for the...

How to Watch Dodgers vs. Cardinals: Live Stream or on TV

The St. Louis Cardinals (0-1), led by Paul Goldschmidt, visit Mookie Betts and the Los Angeles Dodgers (2-1) at 10:10 PM ET on Friday.The article below will give you everything you need to watch Los Angeles take on St. Louis.When...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Astros vs. Yankees: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

On Friday, the New York Yankees (1-0) play Kyle Tucker and the Houston Astros (0-1), with first pitch scheduled for 8:10 PM ET at Minute Maid Park.The article below will provide you with everything you need to know to watch...

Rays vs. Blue Jays: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

At Tropicana Field on Friday, Aaron Civale versus Chris Bassitt will be the pitching matchup when the Tampa Bay Rays (0-1) play the Toronto Blue Jays (1-0), starting at 6:50 PM ET.If you're intending to watch this game, keep reading...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

more cubs news