Sure, Dynasties Are Hard, But the Cubs Are *Not* Already an Example of a Failed One

As soon as the Chicago Cubs won the 2016 World Series, the dynasty talk began.

You remember it, don’t you? Every magazine, newspaper, blog, etc. suggested that this Cubs team was the beginning of something special, something consistent, something dynastic (wow – can’t believe that’s a real word, but cool).

And, yet, here we are, just one year later, and the Cubs are without a second-consecutive World Series crown. So … uh, was the Cubs dynasty just really short-lived? Or did it never happen at all? I don’t think either of those questions are fair, but maybe I’m in the minority.

For one example of this discussion, at ESPN, Buster Olney asks if the Houston Astros are doomed to follow the same path of the Cubs:

It’s worth remembering that a year ago the same conversation hovered over the Chicago Cubs in the afterglow of their championship. The Cubs were and still are young, talented and loaded with high-end athletes like Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras and Javier Baez. But now the Cubs are in the midst of enormous change, with signs that the team’s front office was deeply dissatisfied with the progress of this group.

Now, before I respond or go further, I first want to say that the definition of a dynasty is CLEARLY subjective. There are no checkboxes, thresholds, or specific, objective accomplishments qualifying a team as a dynasty, so there’s no reason to take this too seriously or get too upset. I simply think this could be an interesting (albeit nuanced) conversation and I’d like to hear your thoughts. First, let me share mine.

NOW – here’s my question: If this is not what the beginning of a dynasty looks like, then what is?

One of the biggest problems I have as a guy who writes and talks about the Cubs for a living is bridging the narrative gap between statistical results and expectations. That problem is evident throughout the game (most notably in the traditional v. advanced stats debate (is it even still a debate?)). And while I almost always lean heavily towards the advanced stats, I can of course sometimes see the benefit in the alternative.

For example: if I’m trying to predict which player is likely to perform better over the next few weeks, I’m going to use the MUCH more predictive advanced and peripheral statistics – they simply do that job much better. If I’m going to vote on a World Series MVP, however, I might be partially swayed by the guy with a ton of homers and RBI (or clutch rating, or whatever), because that’s sorta the point.

In other words, sometimes examining what actually did happen is a useful part of the equation. And in the case of the Cubs … how could things have realistically gone any better?

Ignore the regular season for a moment and let’s just hit the headlines of 2017. We (the internet/world) came into the season shouting that the Cubs looked like the beginning of a dynasty – after having gone to the NLCS in 2015, and then won a World Series in 2016 – and then the team came within just three wins of returning to another World Series. Three wins.

An NLCS appearance, a World Series win, and another NLCS appearance. That’s the end of a dynasty?

By this logic (and the results-focused approach), the ONLY way your favorite team can be considered a dynasty is if they go to the World Series every single year. Three straight NLCS appearances and a World Series win? Nope. Good team, not a dynasty. Win three more games in the NLCS, though? Boom. Dynasty. That’s pretty silly, right?

And it’s especially silly, because baseball isn’t football, and it isn’t basketball. The best teams don’t just coast through the playoffs and into the championship year after year. But the Cubs, for all their warts, became one of the final four teams playing for the third consecutive season and won a ton of playoff games against REALLY good teams during that stretch:

So, again: if this were to be the beginning of a dynasty and we were just measuring accomplishments, I think the Cubs check all of the right boxes.

But that’s obviously not the only way to think about it.

After all, there’s more to consider: at 92-70, the Cubs had just the seventh best record in baseball this season, had the lowest win total of any divisional leader, and fought an unexpectedly tough NL Central race against teams that should not have come nearly as close as they did.

Heck, the Cubs were below .500 in the first half of the season, and entered the All-Star break 5.5 games out of first place. That sure doesn’t look like a team in the midst of a dynasty.

(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Then, again, we know they were coming off back-to-back deep postseason runs and a long, drawn-out World Series celebration. And on top of that, manager Joe Maddon mentioned on many occasions that was purposefully keeping his foot off the gas in the first half.

And then, in the second half of the season … the Cubs (49-25) were the single best team in the National League and were second in MLB only to the Cleveland Indians (55-20), who happened to win a historic 22 games in a row. Suddenly, the second-half Cubs look a whole lot like a “dynasty-type-team” don’t they? After all, they were playing like a team that could go all the way (predictive perspective), and then got really damn close.

NOW, did this season expose some holes? Yes, of course. And do the Cubs clearly have some work to do over the winter to be great AGAIN in 2018? Definitely. But you could argue that their abundance of young position players, solid front three of the rotation, quality manager, fantastic front office, and abundant resources put them in as good of a position as almost any team in baseball heading into next season.

In all likelihood, they’ll make the necessary improvements and continue to succeed. And, for the official record, a team that returns to the playoffs consistently and lasts deeper than the first round is a dynasty in my book.

The Cubs may have not done it enough times YET, but that doesn’t mean this isn’t exactly what the early stages would look like, right?*


*What I’m otherwise completely open to is that a dynasty is really only something you can look back on and pick out, not something you can really identify in the moment. If the Cubs stop being good next season, well, then, yeah, they were definitely not a dynasty. HOWEVER, as of this precise moment, they’re looking like they’re on their way.

written by

Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

more cubs news

The Morel Foul Ball, Madrigal’s D, Busch Heads Up, Langford Respect, and Other Cubs Bullets

Ah, now the obligatory off-day after Opening Day. And an Opening Day loss no less, which always makes today that much better, right ... You could hang on so many things from the opening loss - one-run losses in heavily-scrutinized...

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

Latest News

Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Miami Marlins (0-1) are favorites (-132) on the moneyline when they square off against the Pittsburgh Pirates (1-0) Friday at 7:10 PM ET, live on BSFL.Miami's Andrew Jacob Puk and Pittsburgh's Martin Perez have been named the starters for...

Rays vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Tampa Bay Rays (0-1) and Toronto Blue Jays (1-0) meet Friday at Tropicana Field, starting at 6:50 PM ET on SNET. The Rays are -122 moneyline favorites for the contest, however, the Blue Jays are favored against the spread...

Astros vs. Yankees Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The New York Yankees (1-0) visit the Houston Astros (0-1) for a road game on Friday at 8:10 PM ET.The Astros will look to Cristian Javier versus the Yankees and Carlos Rodon.Astros vs. Yankees Pitcher Matchup and Game InfoWhen: Friday,...

Bet $5 with FanDuel Promo Code, Win $200 Bonus Including NCAA Tournament

This weekend is packed with great sports action including the NCAA Tournament, MLB, and NBA for bettors. Check out the FanDuel promo code to score a $200 bonus if your first $5 bet wins! If you live in NC, you...

DraftKings Promo Code: Get $150 for $5 Bet on College Basketball and More Sports

This time of the year on the sports calendar is truly special with the MLB season starting, college basketball in full swing, and much more! Don't miss out on the chance to grab a bonus by using the latest DraftKings...

Rays vs. Blue Jays Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The Toronto Blue Jays (1-0) play on the road against the Tampa Bay Rays (0-1) at Tropicana Field. The game is set to start at 6:50 PM ET on Friday.The Rays will call on Aaron Civale versus the Blue Jays...

Marlins vs. Pirates Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The Pittsburgh Pirates (1-0) play on Friday in Miami against the Miami Marlins (0-1). First pitch is at 7:10 PM ET.The Marlins will call on Andrew Jacob Puk against the Pirates and Martin Perez.Marlins vs. Pirates Pitcher Matchup and Game...

Duke vs Houston Predictions and Odds: March Madness Best Bets

We have a couple of number-one seeds in March Madness action tonight including Houston (32-4) as the Cougars take on Duke (26-8). Check out the odds and more for Duke vs Houston which tips off tonight at 9:39 pm ET...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offseason Preview: 2024 Free Agents and Team Needs

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enjoyed a successful 2023 season, capturing their third straight NFC South title and pushing the Detroit Lions in a thrilling Divisional Round matchup. This strong showing translates to a relatively stable roster with few glaring weaknesses...

NC State vs Marquette Predictions and Odds: March Madness Best Bets

March Madness matchups bring us a great battle tonight as 11-seed NC State battles 2-seed Marquette. Check out the odds, stats, and more for NC State vs Marquette which tips off at 7:09 pm ET tonight. NC State vs Marquette...

more cubs news