NEWSLETTER
Manny Machado is one of the biggest young stars in the game, and, thus, his name being on the trade market in the past week has sent nearly every fan base into a tizzy trying to figure out a way to finagle his way into town. Front offices are probably only slightly less tizzied.
But what about the Cubs? Outside of Luis making an argument for going after Machado on Twitter, I haven’t really given the notion much serious thought, and the reasoning – for me – is pretty simple and straightforward. The Cubs don’t have the pitching prospects to land him, per the rumored Orioles preferences. The Cubs would have to oust an infield regular to make room for Machado. And the only way to solve those first two issues is by sending the Orioles a controlled infield like Addison Russell or Javy Baez for Machado, and I ain’t into doing that.
On that last part, I’m not saying Machado isn’t an upgrade over what the Cubs have. I’m saying only that, if you’re asking me to trade four arbitration years of a 23-year-old Addison Russell for one $17 million season of Manny Machado, I’m saying the most aggressive “no” I can without dotting your face with spittle.
Much of that is prelude to an article Jesse Rogers wrote this morning at ESPN, arguing for precisely that trade, and then a hoped-for extension of Machado. You should read his piece for the full rationale. It’s not without some logical points – like Luis’s Twitter argument – but suffice it to say, I strongly disagree that this is a swap the Cubs should make.
I am not categorically opposed to trading for Machado, I guess, but I don’t see the right value lining up in a trade for Russell unless the Orioles were including more – and when they’ve got upwards of 10 suitors for Machado, I don’t see that happening. Moreover, even if I think about wanting the Cubs to step up and land Machado, I then question myself about whether that’s the best spot for the Cubs to upgrade on the roster. Imagine the controllable starting pitcher the Cubs could get for their positional talent. If you’re going to make a trade, isn’t that the route that best improves the Cubs for 2018 and beyond?
Consider that Machado is projected to be worth 6.2 WAR in 2018, according to Steamer (we don’t have ZiPS or PECOTA yet). Addison Russell projects to be worth just 2.8 WAR. Let’s assume Steamer nails it (ignoring Russell’s upside), and the swap would thus net the Cubs a 3.4 WAR bump in 2018. That’s a *HUGE* single-position bump, and could easily be the difference between a playoff appearance and no playoff appearance.
But that’s not the end of the story, because not only would the Cubs have Russell for three more years after 2018, they’d also have an extra $15 million to play with in 2018 – the difference in projected salaries for the two players. If the Cubs can add Alex Cobb with that $15 million, and if he’s a, say, 2.0-WAR bump over whatever other pitcher the Cubs would start, then the gap between Machado and Russell suddenly shrinks considerably.
This trade does not make sense for the Cubs. As alluring as the idea of having Machado in there hitting next to Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, and Kyle Schwarber, I do not see this approach being the best for the Cubs.
I do want to offer some “this is not a totally insane suggestion” points, for the purposes of discussion:
