NEWSLETTER
That’s a the real Ken Rosenthal with the bomb of the offseason!!! It’s the news you’ve been waiting for for literal months.
BREAKING: Yu Darvish to #Cubs, six year-deal in $150M range, sources tell The Athletic. Pending physical.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 10, 2018
OK, so the deal is actually worth UP to $150 million, presumably if a number of incentives are hit (in which case, you’re more than happy to pay the $25 million AAV over six years):
Clarification: Darvish six-year guarantee with #Cubs is $126M with ability to get to $150M, according to sources.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 10, 2018
As it stands, that’s a $21 million AAV for Yu freaking Darvish, which not only keeps the Cubs under the luxury tax threshold this year, but also will not be overwhelmingly onerous in years to come. (If he hits the incentives (we still have to see exactly how it’s structured), then the AAV will change, but that may not be of significant consequence after this season, because the Cubs may well be headed over the luxury tax cap after 2018 anyway.)
From the early looks at that contract, you’ve gotta believe those other offers – presumably from the Twins and Brewers – were in that five-year, $100 million range, and perhaps Darvish’s camp said, “OK, if you add that sixth year, we’ll do the deal today.”
From a non-monetary perspective, signing Darvish improves the Cubs rotation, starting depth, and bullpen. It’s a win-win-win.
UPDATE: An extremely interesting update from Jon Heyman, which suggests maybe Darvish wasn’t just waiting around on the Dodgers all along:
dodgers were said to have offered in the same ballpark as cubs, but he picked chicago #darvish
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) February 10, 2018
If I had to guess, the Dodgers’ offer was in the same ballpark *BUT* they could actually complete the deal until they moved other money (a $21 million AAV hit this year would have pushed them over their self-avowed goal of staying under the luxury tax cap). Maybe the offer was slightly under the Cubs, maybe it was already a close call for Darvish anyway, and maybe he just decided to stop waiting around on the Dodgers. But, hey, it they had a legit offer on the table that was close to the Cubs, and he chose the Cubs anyway? That’ll make for a heckuva great introduction to the Cubs.
UPDATE 2: A little bit on the incentives, which, again, I sure hope he hits:
Sources: Chances of Darvish getting to $150M with #Cubs quite slim; would need to win multiple Cy Young awards. His guarantee is $126M over six years, making contract the longest and richest free-agent deal of off-season.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 10, 2018
UPDATE 3: While the Dodgers were lurking, they weren’t willing to tack on that extra year and “weren’t all that close” to the Cubs’ final bid:
source suggests that while dodgers were willing to go to six years, they weren't all that close to to the $126M winning bid
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) February 10, 2018
UPDATE 4: It’ll be very interesting to see the particulars on these:
Yu Darvish’s deal with the #Cubs includes an opt out clause and no trade protection, according to a source. There are escalators that can take it from $126M to $150M, as @Ken_Rosenthal reported.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) February 10, 2018
UPDATE 5: Early opt-outs are “in” and Darvish might have received one that comes before the three-year mark of his contract. Johnny Cueto and Masahiro Tanaka’s opt-in after the 2017 season is an example of what the other side looks like:
A source says that Yu Darvish's opt out with the #Cubs is "earlier'' than three years into his contract. (That would lead me to believe it's 2 years, but I don't take anything for granted at this point).
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) February 10, 2018
The Jason Heyward deal also had a couple opt outs (the second of which includes a playing time requirement to kick in) and some no-trade protection. This front office had previously been loath to include those kinds of things, but ultimately you get the deal done and deal with the fallout later. Eh hem.
UPDATE 6: There’s the opt out detail:
Go to bed in Korea. Wake up and Yu Darvish is a Cub. I can add this bit of news: Darvish’s opt-out comes after the second season of his six-year, $126 million contract, source familiar with it tells Yahoo Sports. @Ken_Rosenthal had the deal first.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 10, 2018
So, Darvish can opt out after year two. That’s pretty unlikely to be exercised at age 33, but it does give him some protection if he has two blowout seasons and prices skyrocket for starting pitchers.
There is a lot to like about Darvish’s deal and how it shapes the 2018 Cubs in the middle of their competitive window. Today is a good day.
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