The deal is not officially official yet, though that figures to come in the next two days or so.
According to multiple sources, Darvish’s contract can escalate up to $150 million if he wins multiple Cy Young awards over the coming seasons, but the exact particulars are not yet known. On top of that, Darvish receives some kind of no-trade protection (again, the full details aren’t quite out yet), and an opt-out after the second year of his deal. Soon enough, we’ll have a clearer picture of this contract, but for now, those are the details we know about. (UPDATE: Bob Nightengale has some details on the escalators – Darvish can earn extra bucks for finishing anywhere from first to fifth in Cy Young voting – and says the no-trade clause is “almost full,” which is another way of saying it is not quite a full no-trade clause. (UPDATE: Jon Heyman says the no-trade clause is full for “part of the deal,” and then it drops to a 12-team list.))
As for my thoughts on the deal … I’m super stoked. I cannot believe the Cubs were able to land such an impactful starter like this on a deal that’ll pay him just $21M annually. That’s simply not that much to pay for one of the best 15-25 pitchers in baseball, and, of course, in the new luxury-tax-matters environment, the benefit of added “cap space” from a lower AAV has its own value.
Think about it this way: Jon Lester was the same age when the Cubs gave him six years and $155 million … THREE YEARS AGO. You could argue that Lester was the slightly better pitcher then than Darvish is now, but the cost of a starter should’ve gone up after three seasons. Instead, it apparently went down by $30 million (at least in terms of his guarantee). Such is the market, it seems, and the value of Lester’s exceptional health track record.
Darvish about 8 months older than Lester when he signed with Cubs. Lester made $29 million more. 5 seasons leading up to FA …
Lester: 74-51, 3.54 ERA, 1,038 IP. Coming off 16-11, 32 starts, 2.46 ERA
Darvish: 56-42, 3.42 ERA, 832 1/3 IP. Coming off 10-12, 31 starts, 3.86 ERA— Rob Bradford (@bradfo) February 10, 2018
I suppose we have to factor in the value of the opt out, especially if Darvish’s deal proves to be front-loaded. In any case, there’s almost no version of the opt out, escalators, and no-trade provisions that will make this deal anything but fantastic for the Cubs.
If Darvish is good enough to win multiple Cy Young Awards over the next several years, the Cubs will be happy to pay him the extra $24 million in escalators. If he doesn’t quite win enough awards, but is good enough to opt out and get more money after two years (at age 33), the Cubs will be happy to get what they got and let a 33-year-old starter enter into free agency without having to pay for his declining years. And if he’s just 75% of the pitcher he has been over the life of this contract (with some quality seasons up front and more mediocre seasons at the back end), the Cubs are still going to be happy to have an obvious piece of the rotation cost-controlled for several years.
As with all deals, there is obviously the risk of injury and/or a sudden and extreme drop in effectiveness (as we’ve seen with some other contracts that looked great the day they were signed). But as we analyze the deal as we know of it today, this looks like a very good one for the Cubs.
One thing I will say in the opposite direction is that this is not the sort of pitcher we’re used to seeing the Cubs front office target for the rotation (via free agency). In the past, they’ve made a point to find guys who do not rely on velocity, because they generally expect those players to age more gracefully (think Lester). Darvish doesn’t necessarily rely on velocity (he’s got a robust arsenal of pitches), but he’s certainly a high-velocity pitcher. With that said, we know this front office chased Darvish back when he first came to the United States, so clearly they’ve always liked something about him.
Okay, so now that I’ve gotten some of my initial reactions out of the way, let’s check in on some other random Darvish notes, bullet style:
Biggest contracts in Cubs history:
Heyward: $184 million (8 years)
Lester: $155 million (6)
Soriano: $136 million (8)
Darvish: $126 million (6)— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubCub) February 10, 2018
http://twitter.com/WContreras40/status/962449398155415552
#Cubs Catcher @ChrisGimenez5 can't wait to catch @faridyu again and what his pitch was to get Darvish to Chicago. pic.twitter.com/WAnaF6ga7b
— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) February 10, 2018
How excited is new #Cubs pitching coach Jim Hickey to work with Yu Darvish? He's already comparing him to a Hall of Famer. pic.twitter.com/TKhf1j5veU
— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) February 11, 2018
Just gonna share this amazing overlay GIF of five Yu Darvish pitches at once. No reason at all. pic.twitter.com/05a581DZp4
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) January 23, 2018
LOL at how badly the batter misses this Darvish curveball. Like, I emitted an actual LOL. (via @PitchingNinja) pic.twitter.com/RZINMRfpMv
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) February 11, 2018
Yu Darvish doesn’t throw a slider. He throws a wiffleball. pic.twitter.com/3UuZBV7D7N
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) February 10, 2018
Wow: Yu Darvish Can Pitch Lefty (VIDEO) https://t.co/ylCsPHao85 pic.twitter.com/MI34Nf4MTZ
— Baseball is Fun (@flippingbats) January 3, 2018
Yu Darvish's 11.04 strikeouts per nine innings is the highest mark in MLB history among pitchers with 100+ career starts. #Cubs https://t.co/2HOCDhXzTW
— Stats By STATS (@StatsBySTATS) February 10, 2018
The Cubs have four pitchers who could make a case for “Opening Day starter.” That’s a very good problem.
— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) February 10, 2018
Fly the Double Yu! pic.twitter.com/DjXPyTwIys
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) February 11, 2018
LMAOOO pic.twitter.com/Ep4WVKhxqZ
— Nathan Marzion (@natemar3i0n) February 10, 2018