Huh – Apparently the First Batter of the Game Wrecks Yu Darvish

Before we start this post, let me be very clear up-front: Since joining Major League Baseball in 2012, Yu Darvish has been one of the top 20-25 pitchers in the game.

Be it by WAR (18th), ERA (26th), FIP (20th), strikeout rate (3rd), or any other measure, that’s pretty indisputable. Darvish is very good. End of statement.

But that doesn’t mean he’s perfect (immediately post scripts his statement).

In fact, Darvish has one really weird, quirky problem, not unlike Jon Lester’s inability to throw to the bag, and it might just drive us nuts. Apparently, as Sam Miller of ESPN put it, Yu Darvish is an awful pitcher for the same two minutes every game – the first two (h/t Danny).

More precisely, this can be narrowed all the way down to the first batter of every game. Somehow, for some reason, Darvish has struggled immensely with his first opponent before locking things down the rest of the way.

Check out some of these nearly unbelievable splits for Darvish’s career:

First Batter:

Walk Rate: 13.0%
Strikeout Rate: 21.4%
HBP Rate: 2.3%
HR Rate: 7.6%
AVG: .288
OBP: .397
SLG: .595
tOPS+: 200

Career Overall (and compared to first batter):

Walk Rate: 8.9% (-4.1 percentage points)
Strikeout Rate: 29.7% (+8.3)
HBP Rate: 0.8% (-1.5)
HR Rate: 2.7% (-4.9)
AVG: .219 (-.069)
OBP: .294 (-1.03)
SLG: .361 (-.234)
tOPS+: 100 (-100)

Yes, Yu Darvish has given up 10 of his 92 total MLB home runs allowed (10.9%) to the first batter of a ball game (just 3.8% of total plate appearances). And yes, he’s allowed essentially twice as much overall damage to the first hitter of every game (200 OPS+) than he has for the entirety of his career (100 OPS+).

Needless to say …

But, hey, we have some caveats to attend to. First … 131 leadoff hitters isn’t much of a sample, at least, in terms of predicting future success. Instead, the 3,313 other plate appearances will do a much better job of predicting how well Darvish will be in any given spot.

And second, even if Darvish were to give up a 200 OPS+ to the first hitter of every game for the rest of his career … clearly he’s been able to make it work. Just like Jon Lester can become a Cy Young finalist without ever throwing to first, Darvish can succeed (we know this, because he already has) with this weird little issue.

… But that doesn’t mean it’s just, like, cool.

(Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

It’ll still be something the Cubs coaches will probably want to address. Unfortunately, I’m pessimistic that they’ll be able to crack the code right away. Why? Well, upon being traded to the Dodgers last season (just after the Miller piece was published (and, thus, this information became entirely public knowledge)), Darvish made nine starts with the Dodgers, and the first batter results weren’t just the same … they were even worse.

Now, to be fair, Darvish was joining a new team (his first non-Rangers MLB team) mid-season, while in the middle of a playoff hunt, and we’re talking about nine batters there. That he wasn’t able to crack the code that quickly under those circumstances isn’t much of a surprise.

Hopefully, though, with more time, comfort, and familiarity in Chicago/with the Cubs coaches, this can become a thing of the past. Just don’t be surprised if, as the Opening Day starter or soon thereafter, he lets one fly out of the park in Miami – that is, if the Marlins are still fielding their team with Major Leaguers by then.

written by

Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

more cubs news

Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

Why Craig Counsell Wanted Miles Mastrobuoni on the Cubs’ Bench

I don't know why Miles Mastrobuoni bugs some folks, but it's probably heavily-weighted toward his small-sample, bad-batted-ball-luck start last year, and that time he didn't dive while playing in right field. It can be hard to shake initial impressions, I...

Kinda Sounds Like Craig Counsell May Have a Set Top Three in the Batting Order

New Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell has said, generally, his batting order philosophy is the very simplistic (and very correct): just get your best hitters the most at bats. Sure, there's some play in that to set up good match-ups,...

Los Angeles Dodgers Signing Will Smith to a TEN-YEAR Extension

The Los Angeles Dodgers have done it again. And by it, I mean they have signed a funkily-structured contract that is going to leave some folks annoyed. The Dodgers are extending catcher Will Smith on a DECADE-long deal with a...

The Stretch: 2024 MLB Season Preview

On Monday, during a team-building conversation with some of the Bleacher Nation and Betsperts Media Group folks, we discussed sports—shocking, I know—and Brian Twining asked the group what their favorite sport was. For me, it's baseball. There's no debate. I...

We Have to Talk About Some of the “Deals” the Cubs Sat Out in Free Agency

This week, in a conversation with Jon Greenberg at The Athletic, Cubs President Jed Hoyer made an honest and sober (but also moderately disappointing) admission about the 2024 Chicago Cubs: "We need to perform probably at or a little bit...

The Chicago Cubs Are Reportedly Now Worth Over $5 Billion

Given all the tumult in the baseball broadcasting world, and the uncertain future for that portion of revenues, you'd be forgiven for expecting that MLB franchise valuations would slow their recent surge. But, according to Sportico at least, you'd be...

Reds Second Baseman Matt McLain Had Shoulder Surgery

The injury to Matt McLain's shoulder issue obviously wound up being worse than he and the Cincinnati Reds had been hoping. The damage to his left (non-throwing) labrum ultimately required surgery: https://twitter.com/m_sheldon/status/1772993402604339478 When the hope is that a guy can...

Cubs Actually Getting a Whole Lot of Votes to Win the NL Central

ESPN dropped its big season preview, and included were a set of divisional predictions by way of their writers, editors, and analysts voting. There's nothing in the way of proof or certainty there, but with 26 voters, I do like...

Latest News

How to Watch Diamondbacks vs. Rockies: Live Stream or on TV

In their season opener on Thursday, Zac Gallen will start for the Arizona Diamondbacks versus Kyle Freeland and the Colorado Rockies, with first pitch scheduled for 10:10 PM ET at Chase Field.Keep scrolling to find out all the details on...

How to Watch Mariners vs. Red Sox: Live Stream or on TV

In their season opener on Thursday, Julio Rodriguez and the Seattle Mariners play Rafael Devers and the Boston Red Sox, with first pitch scheduled for 10:10 PM ET at T-Mobile Park.The article below will give you everything you need to...

Guardians vs. Athletics: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

Jose Ramirez and the Cleveland Guardians square off against Brent Rooker and the Oakland Athletics in their season opener on Thursday, with first pitch at 10:07 PM ET.Keep reading to find out how to watch the Cleveland-Oakland matchup in the...

Senators vs. Blackhawks Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Ottawa Senators are solid favorites (-198) at home versus the Chicago Blackhawks (+164) on Thursday at 7:00 PM ET.Senators vs. Blackhawks Favorite, Moneyline, TotalFavorite: Senators (-198)Underdog: Blackhawks (+164)Total: 6.5Best Senators vs. Blackhawks Promo Codes[lasso type="table" id="1"]How to Watch Senators...

Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

Victor Wembanyama Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Jazz – Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Will Victor Wembanyama connect on three 3-pointers when the San Antonio Spurs play the Utah Jazz on Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET? If so, he'll beat his prop for the game.Victor Wembanyama's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the JazzVictor Wembanyama's over/under...

Nikola Jokic Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Suns – Wednesday, March 27, 2024

On Wednesday at 10:00 PM ET, the Denver Nuggets meet the Phoenix Suns, and Nikola Jokic's 3-pointer over/under for this clash requires only one trey.Nikola Jokic's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the SunsNikola Jokic's over/under for three-pointers in this game: 0.5...

Collin Sexton Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Spurs – Wednesday, March 27, 2024

To beat his 3-point prop, Collin Sexton needs to make two from downtown on Wednesday, when his Utah Jazz face the San Antonio Spurs, starting at 9:00 PM ET.Collin Sexton's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the SpursCollin Sexton's over/under for three-pointers...

John Collins Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Spurs – Wednesday, March 27, 2024

The Utah Jazz play the San Antonio Spurs at 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, and one of the 3-pointer over/unders available for this clash requires only one trifecta from John Collins.John Collins' Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the SpursJohn Collins' over/under...

Lauri Markkanen Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Spurs – Wednesday, March 27, 2024

On Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET, the Utah Jazz play the San Antonio Spurs, and Lauri Markkanen's 3-pointer over/under for this clash requires four trifectas.Lauri Markkanen's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the SpursLauri Markkanen's over/under for three-pointers in this game: 3.5...

more cubs news