A Way Yu Darvish Can Get Even Better with the Pitches He Already Has? Climb the Ladder

Back at the beginning of the month, I wrote about the Cubs’ intentions with Yu Darvish this season, specifically the notion that, after the Dodgers tried to change everything from his delivery to his pitch mix, the Cubs mostly just want him to be himself.

“We want him to be him,” said Joe Maddon at Cubs.com. “So we’d prefer to get his input and feedback regarding how he wants to go about it. I’m aware of what happened with the Dodgers. I think you’re going to see maybe more of a complete version than he had been in the past [in terms of] utilizing more of his weaponry.”

Now, the Cubs very much meant what they said (and this isn’t something unique to Darvish, it’s more of a general Cubs’ pitcher philosophy), but that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities for improvement.

And to that end, David Adler (MLB.com) may have found one far too enticing to pass up.

At the foundation of Darvish’s many impressive pitches sits his mid-90s fastball. That’s just not something you can teach, and, even in a world with increased velocities across baseball, not something many starting pitchers boast. But it’s not just the velocity that makes the pitch so successful, it’s also the spin rate.

In case you’re unaware, monitoring and targeting pitchers with elite spin rates has become rather vogue in recent years. Naturally, spin rate does different things for different types of pitches, but for a four-seam fastball, it creates that “rising” effect that tends to throw batters for a loop because the ball doesn’t drop as much as their brain expects – it’s how a guy like Koji Uehara could still get tons of whiffs on his fastball, even as the velocity disappeared (generally, according to Statcast, elevated, high-spin rate fastballs tend to generate more swings and misses). And as you can probably imagine, the higher the spin rate, the more significant the effect, and, well …

Highest Average Four-Seam Spin Rate by Starting Pitchers in 2017:

  1. Justin Verlander: 2,552 rpm
  2. Max Scherzer: 2,504 rpm
  3. Yu Darvish: 2,502 rpm
  4. Sonny Gray: 2, 484 rpm
  5. (tie) Tyler Chatwood*: 2,482 rpm
  6. (tie) Jeff Samardzija: 2,482 rpm

*We’ll have to put a pin in Chatwood’s presence on the list for right now, but if you care to learn more, we did discuss aspects of this talent one, two, and three times in the past.

When the only two pitchers ahead of you on the rankings are Verlander or Scherzer, you can safely assume you’re in good company. But the ability to create a high spin rate is only half of the premise here. After all, it’s not like the Cubs can just tell Darvish to spin it more (I mean, they can work on that, theoretically, but it’s already almost the best mark in the Majors and it’s not an easy thing to improve).

Instead, the idea Adler proposes is that Darvish start elevating his fastball to upper third of the strike zone more often than he has – especially because, so far, he elevates it very little: “On average, a Darvish four-seamer in 2017 crossed the plate at a height of 2.36 feet off the ground, according to Statcast™. That was tied for the 14th-lowest average four-seam pitch height out of the 128 starting pitchers who threw 500-plus four-seamers. Scherzer, by contrast, had an average four-seam height of 2.81 feet; Verlander’s was 2.79 feet.”

Put differently, Verlander elevated his fastball 54.2% of the time, Scherzer elevated 54.0% of the time, and Darvish was elevating just 21.7% of the time. Thus, despite boasting a spin rate of the elites, Darvish may not be getting everything out of it that he could be.

(Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

That shouldn’t be read as a criticism of Darvish’s previous approach with his fastball, since you generally like to keep your pitches down. Maybe there’s a good reason – maybe a physical reason – Darvish hasn’t been elevating. But if you can elevate that kind of high-velocity, high-spin four-seamer? The data says you should.

Here’s the good news: the Cubs new pitching coach, Jim Hickey, is a big proponent of pushing the high fastball and seeing his pitchers have success with it. As two brief examples, Jake Odorizzi and new Cubs starter Drew Smyly (recovering from Tommy John) both became heavy high-fastball users under Hickey’s guidance in Tampa Bay.

Take a look for yourself (Smyly from 2012-2013 with the Tigers vs. 2015-2016 with the Rays):

Odorizzi’s profile is even more noticeable:

S, we’ve learned that fastballs with greater spin rates are better than their alternative and are especially effective in the upper part of the zone. We’ve also learned that Darvish has an elite spin rate, but tends to throw it in the bottom of the zone. Theoretically, then, we’ve concluded that, with a new pitching coach who emphasizes throwing four-seamers at the top of the zone, Darvish should get better.

But it doesn’t have to be theoretical at all. The results already speak for themselves.

As Adler points out, Darvish’s xwOBA on low-zone four-seamers last season is a relatively high (bad) .354. HOWEVER, when he elevated the ball last season, Darvish’s xwOBA was all the way down at .238 (much better than the .305 xwOBA league average for that pitch)!

There’s more!

Darvish’s whiff-per-swing rate on four-seamers in the upper third of the zone also ranks as the VERY best among all starting pitchers in 2017 with at least 100 swings on high fastballs:

  1. Yu Darvish: 42.2%
  2. Jacob deGrom: 40.1%
  3. Rich Hill: 38.0%
  4. Danny Salazar: 37.0%
  5. Robbie Ray: 35.7%

So if Darvish takes the “Jim Hickey” game plan and successfully elevates his elitely-spun, mid-90s four-seamer more often, he might expect to get more swings and misses overall while simultaneously lowering the overall production against him when balls are put in play.

It’s not as though it’s a magic switch that just needs to be flipped, but it terms of changing something a veteran pitcher does, fastball location is among the most frictionless directives. And to the extent you’re wondering why hasn’t anyone tried this before? Well, it’s not that simple. Different pitching coaches have different strategies. It wasn’t until this particular pitcher was matched up with this particular pitching coach that this idea became a little more obvious (at least, to outsiders like us). There’s really a chance this is just not something he’s worked on extensively yet.

Yu Darvish is already one of the best pitchers in baseball and has proven that time and again over the past 6 years, but perhaps in a new organization with different pitching approaches – like elevated four-seamers – he might just unlock a new level of domination. Wouldn’t that be something?

Read Adler’s piece for more on the relationship between four-seam spin rate and success, and how it could work for Darvish.

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Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

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Not very long ago, during his first full season in the Cubs organization (2022), Alexander Canario was kind of the hottest thing around. As a 22-year-old outfielder and legitimate prospect, Canario swatted 37 homers across three levels, eventually reaching Triple-A...

Spring Training Miscellany: Brown, Swanson, Imanaga, Pearson, Poteet, More

A few health notes today from Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell, with two days to go before the full crew officially reports for Spring Training: https://bsky.app/profile/bastianmlb.bsky.social/post/3lhywujv5f22f As expected, Counsell is not going to make his Opening Day starter officially official...

Craig Counsell Still Sees “Good Opportunities” to Add to the Cubs’ Roster

It's not anything too terribly different from what he said earlier in the week, or what the front office said for that matter, but I thought it worth sharing Craig Counsell's latest comments on the state of the Cubs' offseason...

Sounds Like Cubs Know Which Two Dodgers Pitchers They’ll Face in Tokyo

In case you forgot, the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers will open up the 2025 MLB regular season well before the rest of the league. While most teams gear up for a March 27 Opening Day, the Cubs and...

Obsessive Alex Bregman Watch: Staring Contest on Offers, Ownership Involvement, Hinch, Arenado, More

The latest from the Alex Bregman rumor mill ... Just as we are obsessing about the possibility of an Alex Bregman signing, a whole lot of other constituencies are doing the same. The Cubs clubhouse, for one, but also Bruce...

A Reminder of How Much Money the Cubs Have Coming Off the Books the Next Two Years

Whenever we contemplate a deal for free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman, we mention how close it would bring the Cubs payroll to the first tier of the MLB luxury tax in 2025 ($241M). In short, absent a salary-shedding trade, any...

Zastryzny Outrighted, Pressly Not Quite Recruiting Bregman, Kershaw, Injuries, and Other Cubs Bullets

Took The Littlest Girl to Special Olympics basketball last night. We had fun. She wasn’t judged. I wasn’t judged. She simply got to be herself, welcomed by a community designed to support and include our family. Our experiences with Special...

Chicago Cubs Announce 2025 Promotional Schedule (With a Very Enjoyable Video)

Today, the Chicago Cubs announced their 2025 promotional schedule, which you can find right here. For the announcement, the Cubs crafted a promotion Hall of Fame video, which actually did take me back to some of my favorites. Bonus appearance...

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How to Watch Lindenwood (MO) Lions vs. Morehead State Eagles Women’s Basketball: Live Stream or on TV

The Lindenwood (MO) Lions (16-7) will host the Morehead State Eagles (8-16) after winning eight home games in a row.Lindenwood (MO) won its most recent game versus Tennessee State, 81-70, on Saturday. Mya Skoff was its top scorer with 18...

How to Watch Rider Broncs vs. Iona Gaels Women’s Basketball: Live Stream or on TV

The Iona Gaels (9-14) will look to end a four-game road slide when they square off against the Rider Broncs (6-16) on February 13, 2025 at Alumni Gymnasium.In its previous game, Rider fell to Siena on Saturday, 68-49. Its high...

Florida State vs. Louisville Women’s Basketball: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

ACC play on Thursday will see the the No. 23 Florida State Seminoles (19-5) host the Louisville Cardinals (17-7) at Donald L. Tucker Civic Center, tipping off at 6:00 PM ET.In its previous game, Florida State lost to NC State...

Marshall vs. Old Dominion Women’s Basketball: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

The Old Dominion Monarchs (14-11) will attempt to break a four-game losing streak when they visit the Marshall Thundering Herd (7-17) on February 13, 2025 at Cam Henderson Center.In its most recent game, Marshall lost to Central Michigan on Saturday,...

Lipscomb vs. Bellarmine Women’s Basketball: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

The Bellarmine Knights (14-11) will attempt to break a three-game losing streak when they visit the Lipscomb Bisons (15-8) on February 13, 2025 at Allen Arena.Lipscomb won its most recent game versus Austin Peay, 65-59, on Saturday. Jalyn Holcomb was...

How to Watch NJIT Highlanders vs. Bryant Bulldogs Women’s Basketball: Live Stream or on TV

America East play on Thursday will see the the NJIT Highlanders (9-15) host the Bryant Bulldogs (13-11) at NJIT Wellness and Events Center, beginning at 6:00 PM ET.NJIT won its previous game against New Hampshire, 71-63, on Saturday. Alejandra Zuniga...

JMU vs. Appalachian State Women’s Basketball: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

The James Madison Dukes (21-4) will attempt to build on a six-game home win streak when they take on the Appalachian State Mountaineers (13-10) on February 13, 2025 at Atlantic Union Bank Center.In its most recent game, JMU topped Ball...

How to Watch Western Carolina Catamounts vs. Wofford Terriers Women’s Basketball: Live Stream or on TV

The Western Carolina Catamounts (11-13) hope to end a seven-game losing streak when they host the Wofford Terriers (14-7) on February 13, 2025 at Ramsey Regional Activity Center.In its most recent game, Western Carolina lost to Chattanooga on Saturday, 74-59....

How to Watch Little Rock Trojans vs. Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles Women’s Basketball: Live Stream or on TV

The Little Rock Trojans (13-11) will attempt to extend a three-game winning streak when they host the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (18-5) on February 13, 2025. The Golden Eagles have won nine games in a row.On Tuesday, in its last...

Eastern Illinois vs. Tennessee State Women’s Basketball: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

The Eastern Illinois Panthers (14-9) aim to build on a nine-game home win streak when they host the Tennessee State Tigers (7-17) on February 13, 2025.In its previous game, Eastern Illinois lost to Tennessee Tech on Saturday, 65-54. Macy McGlone...

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