Among the many “feels like” things from this weekend’s disappointing opening series for the Cubs: feels like the starting pitchers couldn’t put anyone away.
Specifically, it feels like there were surprisingly few Marlins strikeouts, given the pitchers they were facing and the constitution of their lineup, and it feels like the Cubs’ starters simply couldn’t miss bats. How many times did it feel like you were seeing a guy foul a ton of pitches off, work a deep count, and then take a walk or put a ball in play?
Firstly, was the feeling accurate?
Mostly yeah. It’s just one start for these guys, and most of the differences are not enormous, but it was sufficiently noticeable over the course of the series that your “feels like” is on the mark.
Jon Lester got 7 whiffs over 71 pitches, which is a 9.9% swinging strike rate (SwStr). Last year, he was at 10.9%. He struck out just 10.0% of the batters he faced, whereas last year he was 23.6%.
Kyle Hendricks got 7 whiffs over 88 pitches, which is an 8.0% SwStr. Last year, he was at 8.3%. He struck out 20.0% of the batters he faced, whereas last year he was at 21.6%.
Yu Darvish got 9 whiffs over 102 pitches, which is an 8.8% SwStr. Last year, he was at 12.3%. He struck out 19.1% of the batters he faced, whereas last year he was at 27.3%.
Jose Quintana got 5 whiffs over 104 pitches, which is a 4.8% SwStr. Last year, he was at 8.4%. He struck out 7.4% of the batters he faced, whereas last year he was at 26.2%.
So, every single pitcher had a lower SwStr and a lower strikeout rate in his start against the Marlins than he had last year. It may or may not matter going forward, but dang if that doesn’t stick out. And in the cases of the last two starters, the difference were really stark.
What do we make of it? I think it’s a combination of a lot of things, some fluky, some hopefully fluky, and some worth keeping a longer-term eye on:
Well, certainly the starters across the board did not have their best command in the series. Given the talent of the pitchers we’re talking about, I think that’s your primary explanation here. When you can’t hit your spots with all of your pitches, your best game plan for various hitters goes out the window, and your elite swing-and-miss results won’t be there.
I wonder if Darvish and Quintana, pitching after extra-innings games in front of a worn-out bullpen, were trying – without tremendous success – to be more efficient and pitch to contact a bit more than usual. Darvish relied heavily on his fastball without getting any whiffs on the four-seamer, so it makes you wonder.
For all the inexperience in their lineup, the Marlins didn’t really trot out any high strikeout guys, and much of their lineup is actually pretty contact oriented. I’m not saying they’re sneaky good, mind you – the Marlins scored 18 runs in 45 innings, or 3.6 runs per 9 (despite not striking out!). I’m saying they might not strike out much, even if they also don’t walk/slug/hit much.
Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here.
Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.
Brennen Davis made his return to Triple-A last night, and of course, he managed to smack a three-run home run in an 8-2 win for the Iowa Cubs. That and more in today's Cubs Farm Report. Cubs Farm Report |...
CUBS LINEUP — The Cubs won again last night, which means they've already won the season-series against the still-struggling Astros. Justin Verlander will be on the bump for today's finale, but he'll have to go up against the mighty Javier...
It's a pretty big day for the Chicago Bears, eh? For the second year in a row, they own the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Only this time, they actually plan to use it (and on a quarterback,...
That's a geographic mouthful right there, and it underscores what an interesting signing this is. Stray signings throughout the year are not uncommon, particularly as injuries accumulate down on the farm and the Chicago Cubs have the ability to take...
Once a month since August of 2016, my friends and I get together for "Supper Club." It's like book club, but instead of reading books, we go to a different restaurant in the city. Last night, we hit our 77th...
The Cubs did all their scoring in the first, and made it stand up for the win with generally good pitching and generally good defense. Jameson Taillon looked solid again in his second start, locating well, giving up no barrels,...
For the second straight night, the Cubs are jumping all over the Astros in the first inning. After a couple hits from Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ to get things going, Michael Busch hit a sac fly, Christopher Morel walked,...
What a road it's been - continues to be - for Cubs outfield prospect Brennen Davis. The former top prospect was on a rocket ship to Triple-A in 2021, and then mostly lost the last two years to various injuries....
So much for all those words of optimism and negative X-rays. After colliding with the outfield wall last night, Cody Bellinger fractured his rib (Update: It's actually TWO fractured right ribs) and will hit the injured list today. Chicago Cubs...
CUBS LINEUP — The Chicago Cubs took Game 1 against the Houston Astros in convincing fashion last night. So tonight, they'll go for the quick series win against Spencer Arrighetti at Wrigley Field (it'd be a good idea to win...
The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2024 offseason with the familiar feeling of championship aspirations. Dak Prescott is healthy, the skill positions are loaded, but the offensive line, once a strength, is in flux. With the 24th overall pick in the...
With the invigorating spirit of a new baseball season upon us, igniting hope and anticipation within fan communities, it's the perfect time to embark on a unique exploration: a 2024 MLB Mock Draft. Numerous mock drafts meticulously analyze potential player...
The Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks are playing in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs, with Game 3 up next.The Knicks beat the 76ers 104-101 on Monday when they last met. Jalen Brunson led the Knicks in the...
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it'll be the Cleveland Cavaliers against the Orlando Magic, with Donovan Mitchell needing four trifectas to beat his 3-pointer over/under.Donovan Mitchell's Three-Pointer Prop...
On Thursday at 7:00 PM ET, the Cleveland Cavaliers play the Orlando Magic in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and Caris LeVert's 3-pointer over/under for this matchup requires just one trey.Caris LeVert's Three-Pointer Prop Odds...
To beat his 3-point prop, Josh Hart needs to make two from downtown on Thursday, when his New York Knicks meet the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, tipping off at 7:30 PM...
The New York Knicks face the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday at 7:30 PM ET in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and if the Knicks' Jalen Brunson drains three 3-pointers, he'll beat his over/under.Jalen Brunson's Three-Pointer...
To beat his 3-point over/under, Donte DiVincenzo needs to make four from downtown on Thursday, when his New York Knicks play the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, beginning at 7:30 PM ET.Donte...
To beat his 3-point prop, Joel Embiid needs to make two from beyond the arc on Thursday, when his Philadelphia 76ers meet the New York Knicks in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, starting at 7:30...
The Philadelphia 76ers play the New York Knicks at 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and one of the 3-pointer over/unders available for this matchup requires four trifectas from Tyrese...