Kyle Hendricks’ Great Outing Reminds Us That He’s Still Kyle Hendricks

Last night, Kyle Hendricks made his fifth start of the season, and it was his best one yet – his velocity was where it should be, he generated a ton of weak contact, and his changeup was absolutely filthy (as it often is).

So when he was finally lifted from the game before the start of the 8th inning, no one was surprised to see a beautiful stat line: 7.0 innings pitched, 4 hits, 0 earned runs, 0 walks, and 5 strikeouts.

Here’s a quick highlight reel, in case you missed it:

Hendricks needed just 94 pitches to get through those seven innings, and 56 of those pitches fell in for strikes. He didn’t generate a ton of whiffs overall (7), but his changeup got six swings and misses, and each one is more beautiful than the last:

No one can freakin’ touch that pitch (and for what it’s worth, he said he felt much more natural last night). Indeed, Hendricks is only just getting started, but his 3.1 changeup pitch value ranks 8th best in baseball, sandwiched between Chris Sale and Max Scherzer.

As for his velocity, Hendricks was routinely working between 87-88 MPH last night, which is right in line with his season-average (87.92 MPH), which, itself, is better than all of 2017 (86.59 MPH). But perhaps most importantly, his overall 88.0 MPH average this April is actually higher than what he posted in April of 2016 – the year he went onto finish as a NL Cy Young finalist.

I know burning fastballs by people isn’t Hendricks’ thing, but creating more separation between that pitch and his wipeout changeup is crucial. So the better his fastballs look, the better his changeup will be.

Going back to last night, sure, Hendricks only had seven whiffs, but he used them wisely, racking up five strikeouts and exactly zero walks – something he’s been doing a lot of lately:

Currently, his 19.5% strikeout rate won’t strike fear into anyone’s heart, but 1) strikeouts, alone, aren’t how Hendricks dominates (more on this in a second), 2) he’s walking so few batters (5.7 BB%) that his K/BB is still an extremely solid 3.43, and 3) his strikeout rate over his past three starts is up at 25%.

So, basically, he’s killing it in this arena, too, and, really, it was his second start of the year (when he struck out just one batter, despite facing 26 guys) that’s really dragging his strikeout rate down.

What *is* a critical part of Hendricks’ game, however, is inducing weak contact on the ground, and that’s something he did extremely well against the Brewers last night. According to FanGraphs, Hendricks recorded a 68.4% ground ball rate yesterday, with a teeny-tiny 5.3% line drive rate and 26.3% fly ball rate. On top of that, he managed to generate soft contact 26.3% of the time with a hard-hit rate to match it – both are much better than average.

(Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)

But that’s not something he just did well last night. In fact, while the strikeouts have come and gone, the weak contact on the ground has been there all year for Hendricks:

Batted Ball Profile:

Ground ball: 51.7%
Fly ball: 29.2%

Soft Contact: 30.0%
Hard Contact: 26.7%

Those are all VERY good numbers. Hendricks’ 30.0% soft-contact rate this season not only ranks fourth best in baseball (between Chris Sale and Dallas Keuchel), it also represents – by far – the best mark of his career … and he’s pretty much known for inducing weak contact. Meanwhile, Hendricks’ 26.7% hard-hit rate ranks 18th best in MLB right now and is exactly equal to his career rate – which, again, is usually near the top of the league by the end of the season.

All the while, Hendricks is allowing almost exactly as many fly balls as he ever has (which is a better than average rate to start with), and he also subtracted from his line drive rate to give to his groundball rate (51.7%), which now stands at the highest level of his career.

In short, Kyle Hendricks has always been the sort of pitcher to outperform his peripherals because of a superb batted ball profile, but that may be more true this year than ever before (3.10 ERA, 4.69 FIP).

If he just keeps doing what he’s doing (grounders, weak contact, no walks, good velocity), he’ll be in store for a another truly excellent season. It may not have looked that way out of the gate, but five starts in and it’s looking like: Kyle Hendricks is still Kyle Hendricks.

written by

Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

more cubs news

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

I Dug Deep on the Cubs 2024 Schedule (And I Like What I See)

Finally, with Cody Bellinger in the fold, we can start focusing more seriously on the season ahead. So today, I thought we'd take a look at the Cubs 2024 schedule. You can flip through the Cubs 2024 schedule right here...

Here’s What I’m Betting on the Cubs for Opening Day

I get it. Sports betting isn't for everyone — like, say, the interpreter for an international baseball superstar — but some of us quite enjoy it! If you are one of those people, this article is for you. Below, I'm...

WAKE UP, BASEBALL IS BACK

The day has arrived. Opening Day. The most glorious day on the baseball calendar, save for the day of each Chicago Cubs World Series win, of course. See, I get to say things like that on Opening Day. Maybe the...

Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

Why Craig Counsell Wanted Miles Mastrobuoni on the Cubs’ Bench

I don't know why Miles Mastrobuoni bugs some folks, but it's probably heavily-weighted toward his small-sample, bad-batted-ball-luck start last year, and that time he didn't dive while playing in right field. It can be hard to shake initial impressions, I...

Kinda Sounds Like Craig Counsell May Have a Set Top Three in the Batting Order

New Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell has said, generally, his batting order philosophy is the very simplistic (and very correct): just get your best hitters the most at bats. Sure, there's some play in that to set up good match-ups,...

Los Angeles Dodgers Signing Will Smith to a TEN-YEAR Extension

The Los Angeles Dodgers have done it again. And by it, I mean they have signed a funkily-structured contract that is going to leave some folks annoyed. The Dodgers are extending catcher Will Smith on a DECADE-long deal with a...

Latest News

Los Angeles Chargers Offseason Preview: 2024 Free Agents and Team Needs

The Los Angeles Chargers enter the offseason with a new era dawning. After a disappointing season, they landed a marquee hire in Jim Harbaugh, fresh off his national championship win with Michigan. Hailed as the top coaching prospect, Harbaugh brings a...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

Rangers vs. Cubs Probable Starting Pitchers – March 28

The Texas Rangers (0-0) and the Chicago Cubs (0-0) square off on Thursday at Globe Life Field for Opening Day. First pitch is at 7:35 PM ET.The Rangers will call on Nathan Eovaldi against the Cubs and Justin Steele.Rangers vs....

Best NBA Prop Bets Today – March 28, 2024

The Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks take the court for one of two exciting matchups on the NBA slate today.Looking for NBA player prop bets for today's games? This article includes NBA player props for every matchup, so take...

UNC vs Alabama Predictions and Odds: March Madness Best Bets

We have a great matchup in the Sweet 16 between (1) North Carolina and (4) Alabama. Let's break down the odds, ATS records, and more for UNC vs Alabama as March Madness continues. Read More: Today's schedule and upset picks...

Seattle Seahawks Offseason Preview: 2024 Free Agents and Team Needs

The Seattle Seahawks turn the page on a historic era as they enter the 2024 season without Pete Carroll at the helm for the first time since 2010. Carroll's impact on the franchise is undeniable, crafting a period of sustained...

Who Is In The Sweet 16? Updated Bracket, Odds to Win, and More

It has been a great March Madness so far and we have more great matchups in the Sweet 16. Check out what teams are in the Sweet 16, odds, and more as the college basketball season rolls on. Latest March...

Today’s March Madness Schedule: Updated Bracket, TV Channels for Every Game

The Sweet 16 is here as March Madness brings us some great matchups tonight! Check out today's March Madness schedule along with game times, TV channels, and more as the college basketball season's biggest games continue. The Sweet 16 Begins...

2024 MLB Mock Draft: Opening Day Mock Draft Projections

Happy Opening Day! As the new baseball season begins, and hope is present among most fanbases, why not take a look at a new 2024 MLB Mock Draft? Various mock drafts meticulously analyze potential picks, emphasizing the abundance of talent...

WAKE UP, BASEBALL IS BACK

The day has arrived. Opening Day. The most glorious day on the baseball calendar, save for the day of each Chicago Cubs World Series win, of course. See, I get to say things like that on Opening Day. Maybe the...

more cubs news