Chicago Cubs Off-Day Check-In: Overall, It’s Been a Very Good Stretch for the Cubs

You know that feeling of finding five bucks in an old pair of jeans? That’s how I feel about off-days following wins … and especially six-game winning-streaks. There’s a sort of peaceful bliss to the day, which brightens everything else just a bit more than it probably should.

It’s been a very long time since our last off-day check-in (June 14), though that did include one off-day in there on Tuesday. Since this second off-day was coming so quickly, we figured we’d just save this for today.

The Cubs had a 17-game straight stretch before that first break on Monday, which, combined with the short series against the Tigers, means we have a massive 19 games to cover. So here’s the short version: Starting on June 14th, the Cubs won their series against the Cardinals (2-1) and Dodgers (2-1), before being … gulp … swept by the Reds in four (0-4).

They then split a four-gamer with the Dodgers (2-2) on the road, before heading home to sweep the Twins (3-0), and Tigers (2-0). Altogether, they went 11-8 during this stretch, while improving to a season-high 14 games over .500. If it weren’t for that brutal Reds series, they would’ve been sitting pretty. As it is …

1. Milwaukee Brewers: 51-35 (.593)
2. Chicago Cubs: 49-35 (.583)
3. St. Louis Cardinals: 44-41 (.518)
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: 40-46 (.465)
5. Cincinnati Reds: 38-49 (.437)

The Cubs are currently 1.0 game back of the Brewers in the NL Central, but they are tied in the loss column and are 14 games over .500, so they’re right up there with the second best record in the NL. At this time last year, the Cubs were an even 42-42. So this seven game lead is quite the advantage on a team that wound up winning 92 games.

And of course, the Cubs’ run differential still has them tops in the National League, and one of just four teams over 100:

1. Houston Astros: +173
2. Boston Red Sox: +130
3. New York Yankees: +116
4. Chicago Cubs: +104
5. Atlanta Braves: +77
6. Cleveland Indians: +75
7. Los Angeles Dodgers: +74
8. Milwaukee Brewers: +51
9. Arizona Diamondbacks: +40
10. Seattle Mariners: +22

The Astros and Red Sox continue to be in a league of their own, but the Cubs are pretty clearly in the highest tier of teams – indeed, the fifth place Braves are more than 25 runs lower than the fourth place Cubs.

As far as runs scored per game, the Cubs now rank third (5.12 RS/G), which is quite a step up from their 4.89 figure last time around. That streak of four games with more than ten runs score per game doesn’t hurt, but the Cubs scored five runs in each of the Tigers games that followed anyway. The offense is clicking like crazy right now and that’s without Kris Bryant.

The number of runs the Cubs have allowed per game has crept up since our last check-in, though, as the team has moved from third (3.52 RA/G) to seventh (3.88 RA/G). But without Carl Edwards, Yu Darvish, or Brandon Morrow, that may not be that bad.

So where does that leave the Cubs’ expected record? Well, according to two different measures, the Cubs should actually still have two to four more wins:

The Pythagorean and BaseRuns records are a way to measure how many games a team should have won over a given stretch based on the number of runs score and allowed (Pythagorean) and other underlying metrics (BaseRuns). Obviously, teams frequently under and over-perform these numbers, but they are usually a pretty good indication of how well a team may do going forward over a long enough horizon.

If the Cubs sequenced everything as you might expect, they would have as many as four more wins than they do right now, which would leave them with the best record in the National League. Their four win differential is the third highest in all of baseball. Interestingly enough, the Astros should actually have about SIX more wins. Which, just, wow.

The Adjusted Standings at Baseball Prospectus (based on different layers of underlying performance), also have the Cubs winning something between 51.8 and 52.7 games this season. So, pretty much anyway you slice it, they’ve been a little unlucky (which isn’t a bad sign going forward, of course!).

As for the rest of the season, FanGraphs is projecting the Cubs to win 44 more games this season, which is the most in the National League and behind only the Yankees (47) and Astros (46) overall. That figure would leave them with 93 wins by the end of the season and home field advantage throughout the postseason until the big one. The Cubs are still the class of the NL.

Chicago Cubs Playoff Odds (FanGraphs)

Because the Brewers have hung around so well, the Cubs playoff odds have hardly moved for the better, but anything over 90% at this point in the season is nothing to brush off. In all likelihood, the Cubs are going to play at least one playoff game this October.

Here’s some more odds, for context:

Chicago Cubs Playoff Odds (Baseball Prospectus):

Baseball Reference has much lower odds for the Cubs, but saw much bigger jumps. Each publication comes to their conclusions differently, but usually, as we get closer to the end of the season, the numbers start coming together. This big jump from BP then, seems like a good sign.

Chicago Cubs Offensive Statistics (Ranking Today, Previous)

Walk Rate: 9.8% (5th, 3rd)
Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (10th, 11th)
ISO: .164 (13th, 19th)
AVG: .266 (T-1st, 6th)
OBP: .346 (1st, 1st)
SLG: .431 (6th, 10th)
wOBA: .334 (3rd, 6th)
wRC+: 108 (t-4th, 10th)
Position Player War: 19.6 (1st, 1st)

The Cubs offense, dude. Wow. They are first in batting average and OBP, have raised their ISO and, relatedly, slugging percentage up to a sixth best .431, have improved their walk rate (even though they fell in the rankings), and have shrunk their strikeout rate. Basically, they have been absolutely brilliant during these past 19 games, and are probably the best offense in the NL, and maybe all of MLB.

So how’s the pitching staff doing?

Chicago Cubs Pitching Statistics

ERA: 3.56 (6th, 2nd)
FIP: 4.25 (20th, 14th)
xFIP: 4.29 (22nd, 19th)
K-rate: 21.8% (18th, 15th)
BB-rate: 11.2% (30th, 30th)
K/BB: 1.94 (29th, 27th)
AVG: .226 (5th, 2nd)
GB-rate: 45.2% (2nd, 1st)
Soft-Contact: 19.3% (7th, 7th)
Hard-Contact: 32.8 (7th, 4th)
Pitching Staff WAR: 5.3 (18th, 20th)

Without one of their primary starters (Yu Darvish) and their two very best relievers (Brandon Morrow and Carl Edwards Jr.), the Cubs staff has slipped a bit during these past 19 games. Even their already highest in baseball 11.2% walk rate actually got worse since last time. And while their ground ball rate is still second best in baseball, it actually experience a significant drop during this stretch, which, combined with fewer strikeouts, less soft contact, and more hard contact, didn’t work out so well.

The Cubs have since got Morrow back and Edwards won’t be far behind, but Darvish is optimistically targeting a late-July return, so the Cubs will have to fix themselves before reinforcements are coming.

Up Next: The Cubs have nine games (three series) until the All-Star break, with just one more series (against the Reds this weekend) at home. After that, they’ll had to San Francisco for three games and San Diego for three before resting for the break. These are all winnable games against middle-of-the-pack teams (generously), so you’d love to see the Cubs come away with at least five wins out of nine, and something like six of nine would be nice.