Tonight, the Chicago Cubs begin a six-game, mostly-late-night road trip out west with three games against the Giants and another three against the Padres. If the Cubs do extremely well and win 5 of their next 6 games, they’ll match the 56-37 record the magical 2016 team had as late as July 19th (hat tip to Tommy for teeing that up with a look into their 2018 record compared to past seasons).
For as different as this season feels from that one, there are some subtle similarities (particularly in their ability to constantly and inevitably come back) and an identical record this late in the season would just make my brain happy.
To get there, though, they’ll have to start with Kyle Hendricks tonight. Hendricks hasn’t really had the most consistent season of his career (is the nice way to put it), and I hate the way he’s failing (low ground ball rate, more hard contact). The good news is that he doesn’t actually have a high fly ball rate and is still getting plenty of soft contact, but without his usually dominant command, the incomplete batted ball picture has hurt more than normal.
Speaking of that command, Hendricks walked just one batter in his abbreviated (5.0 IP) start against the Tigers last time out, though to be fair, they have the third lowest walk rate in the Majors this season. It’s good when you do what you’re supposed to do against bad teams, but I’d be happy to see Hendricks keep the Giants (who walk about 1% point more than the Tigers do) honest tonight.
On the other side of things, Andrew Suarez brings his tiny 4.7% walk rate and solid 22.6K% and 3.56 FIP to the mound in what figures to be a tough matchup … that is, if he can get past the barrage of righties Joe Maddon has lined up for him. As we discussed in the lineup post, Suarez has been brutal on lefties this season and t-ball for righties, so hopefully that holds true tonight. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that despite some good results for righties against Suarez, he still has a 52.4% ground ball rate and an 8.1% infield fly ball rate. If it weren’t for his well-above average 41.7% hard-hit rate, I’d be pretty nervous for the Cubs tonight. But as it stands, they’ll just need to get it in the air and let the wind do the rest.
It’s all about contact tonight, boys and girls, so let’s see if the Cubs can put the ball in play.
Game Info
Chicago Cubs (51-36) at San Francisco Giants (47-45) – Monday, July 9 at 9:15 CT on CSN-C, MLBN (out-of-market), 670 The Score
Game Thread and Series Preview
Your game thread is down in the comments, so let’s have some good, clean (safe-for-work) fun today.
Starting Pitchers
Cubs: Kyle Hendricks (R): 4.27 ERA, 4.80 FIP; 2.40 K/BB
versus
Giants: Andrew Suarez (L): 3.92 ERA, 3.56 FIP; 3.19 K/BB
San Francisco Giants:
- Stevan Duggar, CF
- Buster Posey, C
- Andrew McCutchen, RF
- Brandon Belt, 1B
- Brandon Crawford, SS
- Pablo Sandoval, 3B
- Alan Hanson, 2B
- Hunter Pence, LF
- Andrew Suarez, P
Chicago Cubs Lineup:
- Albert Almora Jr., CF
- Addison Russell, SS
- Javy Baez, 2B
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B
- Willson Contreras, C
- Ben Zobrist, RF
- David Bote, 3B
- Ian Happ, LF
- Kyle Hendricks, P