Javy Baez and Kyle Schwarber Near the Bottom in Home Run Derby Odds ... Whatever, Man

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Javy Baez and Kyle Schwarber Near the Bottom in Home Run Derby Odds … Whatever, Man

Chicago Cubs

In a field featuring a number of solid sluggers, but fewer oh-obviously-that-guy-is-gonna-destroy types than in years past, I think the Cubs’ duo of Javy Baez and Kyle Schwarber have a chance to do some damage in this Home Run Derby. I will be watching and enjoying that happen.

But I’m gonna be honest with you up front: I don’t love either of them to win the thing. Before you come at me, let me offer an explanation.

As Schwarber has evolved as a hitter, his swing has become less home-run friendly, and more line-drive oriented. Sure, it allows him to hit absolute monster rocket homers, but it also isn’t not necessarily conducive to hitting tons of homers in a derby format. I could see Schwarber hitting a few whoppers, but maybe not a huge volume.

Baez, by contrast, I *do* feel like has the kind of swing to hit a ton of homers in a derby format. His swing generates the right kind of fly balls to hit a lot out in a very short time, but it’s also a max-effort swing. Very max-effort. I don’t know if Javy knows anything other than max-effort when he’s swinging for dingers. So while I could see Baez hitting a lot of homers, say, in the first round, I wonder if he’d be one of the guys who wears down quickly. It’s a legitimately tiring event!

That said, it’s just for fun anyway, so I’m very fine being wrong on this one. In fact, if either Cubs hitter reaches the finals, I’ll donate $100 to Make-A-Wish for the Blogathon. And if a Cub wins it, I’ll donate another $100.

The official odds out there from Bovada, though, don’t think the Cubs hitters will fare too well:

Bryce Harper – 11/4
Jesus Aguilar – 7/2
Max Muncy – 5/1
Freddie Freeman – 11/2
Rhys Hoskins – 11/2
Javy Baez – 6/1
Alex Bregman – 9/1
Kyle Schwarber – 9/1

I think that’s all mostly fair. I’m not quite sure why Max Muncy is up there like he is, but Jesus Aguilar is such a thumper and Bryce Harper is Bryce Harper. It’d be fun to see him win it in DC, too.

The Home Run Derby is Monday night on ESPN at 7pm CT.

(Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Author: Brett Taylor

Brett Taylor is the Editor and Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and @Brett_A_Taylor.