Like I said before and like Michael said recently, it’s weird/odd/hard/whatever to cover Chris Archer trade rumors. He’s such a valuable pitcher (when you consider the whole package) that if he’s traded, it’s not only going to have outward impacts on future playoff races and trade markets, but it’s also just interesting as heck.
… but the thing is, we’ve been hearing these rumors FOR YEARS. And the Rays still have three+ years of cheap team control on Archer, who is not necessarily pitching at the top of his game right now, so why would now be the specific time they finally deal him? Just how into the rumors can we really get?
Well, although I’m mostly being rhetorical there, I would concede that in a really depleted starting pitching market, maybe now would be the time that the Rays could get the best possible return for Archer. On the one hand, you’d have more potential buyers in the offseason, but as we see every year, the price tag can still come up at the deadline, because the teams in a playoff race already know they can get more “value” from a great player in the final two months of the season. When you’re buying in the offseason, you don’t know if you might lay an egg in and April and May, making the value of having that player just about nothing.
Moreover, the way the rumor-pundits are talking about Archer this time – and they all are – does make it seem like the Rays are more seriously engaging in trade talks with a lot of teams about Archer than they ever have before. In the past, it’s felt like one or two stray teams tried to slide into the Rays’ DMs. Now, it feels more like the Rays are ready to accept a good offer, so they’re seeing what a variety of interested teams could offer.
To that end, here’s some of the latest:
padres, yankees and braves (via @TBTimes_Rays) seen as among the main players for archer. nicely for rays, those are 3 of the top 4 teams in terms of prospects, rival teams see SD as possible favorite fwiw.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 29, 2018
#Rays have 2 scouts watching Justus Sheffield tonight, but 1 is regular coverage. Still hearing that it is a long shot #Yankees end up with Archer. They are monitoring. But #Padres and others are pursuing in stronger way. Remains uncertain if Archer will even be moved.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) July 29, 2018
Sherman adds in a written piece the problem with the Padres as front runners, and it really does cut against a trade happening right now: “As of Saturday night, the Yankees were not viewed as a frontrunner for Archer. The Padres might be, but without the urgency of a playoff push, they might not give up enough to tempt the Rays.”
The Padres certainly have plennnnnnnty of prospect talent to put together an overwhelming package for the Rays, but part of the value they’d be paying for is the final two months of a “playoff race” that they are not in. If they desperately want Archer for the three seasons after this one and if the Rays are going to trade him right now no matter what, then maybe the Padres still make the deal happen. But that’s the kind of trade that very rarely goes down.
Still, the Padres are far from the only team involved. We’ve heard stray reports about the Cubs and Cardinals, in addition to the Yankees, Braves and Padres, and you can add the Dodgers, too:
#Yankees, #Dodgers and #Padres among teams trying for #Rays’ Chris Archer, sources tell me and @JimBowdenGM.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 28, 2018
The reality is that there’s very little reason to believe any contender would not be checking in if this is finally the time the Rays are serious about a move. (Of course, in that group, I’d argue the Cubs may very well be the least likely team to want to put together a winning offer right now.)
Like I said above, maybe this is finally the time the Rays are serious about a move that could shake the market. I’m interested. I’m watching.