NEWSLETTER
No, this is not the post I thought I’d be writing this morning – I *thought* we’d be previewing the NLDS matchup, wondering how whichever Wild Card team we’d get to face would certainly be at a disadvantage after playing not one, but two post-season games before the start of the NLDS – but here we are. And maybe that’s okay.
Because this morning, as I was considering the last few Cubs seasons and their respective playoff runs, it hit me: we’re playing out the plot of the “Rocky” series in real-time. Seriously think about it.
The 2015 season is exactly like Rocky 1. It was the first year this Cubs team made the playoffs, and they did so as extreme underdogs, with nothing to lose, but everything to prove. They ultimately came up just short (just like Rocky!), but they announced their presence and talent to the world.
The 2016 season is exactly like Rocky 2. That year, the Cubs came back bigger, stronger, and better than ever, after their unexpected run (and defeat) the year prior. They drew on their lessons, eliminated the weaknesses, and became champions when no one else thought they ever would.
The 2017 season is exactly like Rocky 3. After riding as high as could be as champions, the Cubs came into the 2017 season, hungover from their past success. And like Rocky, the past success, celebration, fame, and attention got in the way of being the team they really should have been.
And the 2018 season is exactly like Rocky 4. Because the Cubs are playing the Russians for freedom and #AMERICA. Oh, also because after the mistakes of flying to close to the sun and expecting success, but not working for it, it’s time to get humble, go back to the basics, and be the underdog again. That’s where the Cubs thrive and that’s where they will be tonight.
Winner advances to face the Brewers. Let’s see how it goes.
We’re Going Streaking
The Chicago Cubs (95-68)Â won plenty of games this season, but as it turns out, that was plenty -1. Now, they’ll have to fight from the bottom of the barrel, despite owning the second best record in the National League, if they want to return to the promised land.
The Colorado Rockies (91-72)Â had a red-hot month of September (19-9), but couldn’t quite close the door on the Dodgers in game 163. Now, they’ll have to go through the Cubs in their home ballpark in order to advance.
Game Time and Broadcasts Info
Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitcher:Â Jon Lester (3.32 ERA, 4.39 FIP; 2.33 K/BB)
Perhaps Kyle Hendricks is actually the Cubs best starter at the moment, and maybe Cole Hamels has shown enough in the second half to make you think he’s the guy, but if we’re going to go out in an explosion of fire after losing the division one day after the season, there’s no one else I rather have on the mound than Big Jon Lester. Lester has had one hell of a year – in both good and bad ways – but, again, he’s the arm you want in a moment like this.
Remember, Lester is the one who took this team from perennial, lovable loser to class of the NL Central. He’s the veteran of the staff. He’s a leader in the clubhouse. And he loves to make his presence felt in the biggest games of the season. He’s been solid every time out there since an early-August blowup against the Nationals, and I believe he’ll be good again tonight.
NOTE: The Rockies have hit .274/.337/.475 (102 wRC+) against left-handers in the second half of the season (8th best in MLB), so that could be a challenge.
Hottest Hitter: Anthony Rizzo
Anthony Rizzo is working on a four-game hitting streak, which features seven hits including two doubles and a homer. And since September 3rd, he’s slashed .312/.394/.462 with a tiny 11.0% strikeout rate. With Kris Bryant not his usual self and offensive woes throughout the lineup, Rizzo will need to keep the team on his back for at least one night longer.
NOTE: Kyle Freeland has been ridiculously tough on left-handers this year (.234 wOBA), so that could be a challenge.
Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitcher:Â Kyle Freeland (2.85 ERA, 3.67 FIP; 2.47 K/BB)
Kyle Freeland has gotten really great results this year (2.85 ERA), though as you can see by his FIP, the peripherals don’t quite matchup. It’s worth noting, then, that neither his 20.5% strikeout rate nor 8.3% walk rate are particularly intimidating in a vacuum. His contact data is a little better (he’s better than average in terms of soft% and hard% and has a solid ground ball rate), but none of it is out-of-this-world good. He’s an extremely beatable pitcher with extreme lefty/righty splits to exploit, so the Cubs should be looking to do just that. Let me put it a different way: there are worse pitchers to draw in a one-game playoff.
NOTE: With all of that said, Freeland has lasted 6.0 or more in 11 straight starts with a 2.18 ERA, 2.99 FIP … so, say it with me, that could be a challenge.
Hottest Hitter: Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story
Both of these guys have a massive 171 wRC+ over the past month, as they’ve combined for 17 homers 36 RBI, and 7 stolen bases. And yesterday, Story launched his 37th home run of the season, while Blackmon went 2-3 with a walk from the leadoff spot. And, of course, this ignores the fact that David Dahl has been red-hot during that stretch (144 wRC+) and Nolan Arenado is always quite good. Put simply, this Rockies’ offense has had no trouble scoring runs of late.
NOTE: Blackmon has actually struggled with lefties quite a bit this season (107 wRC+), but Story has pummeled them (166 wRC+). Good luck, Jon Lester.
LET’S GO, CUBS.
