Kris Bryant’s Previously-Elite Performance and Currently-Questionable Shoulder

Identifying the league’s most elite players isn’t easy, because they come in many different packages. Comparing middle-infield types like Javy Baez and Jose Altuve to bigger, corner players like Paul Goldschmidt or Anthony Rizzo, for example, presents some inherent challenges – and the comparison itself depends largely on what skillsets or traits you value most.

Of course, even if you focus in on one particular aspect of a player’s overall game – let’s say, offense – you still have to create some artificial/subjective cutoffs to define certain tiers of performance. For example, let’s think about wRC+ – an all-encompassing advanced offensive statistic that assigns a number to a player’s overall output relative to the league average (always 100) and adjusts for park factors – every point above or below 100 is exactly what percent better or worse than the league average you have been.

If you have a wRC+ of 100, you are exactly a league-average hitter. Anyone with a score between 100-115 wRC+ is typically a sure-fire everyday starter if your defense is passable – for the Cubs this season, that included Willson Contreras (100 wRC+), Ian Happ (106 wRC+), Daniel Murphy (115 wRC+), and Kyle Schwarber (115 wRC+).

From 115 wRC+ to about a 130 wRC+ is where I’d say you have the borderline All-Stars who might be just missing the cut as a few other players at their position were better. For the Cubs this year, that includes Ben Zobrist (123 wRC+), Kris Bryant (125 wRC+), and Anthony Rizzo (125 wRC+).

We’re really splitting hairs at this next level, but I’d argue the next tier is the second to last one, and includes guys in the 130 wRC+ to 140 wRC+ range. These are the sure-fire All-Stars, and the guys who just miss the cut of the elite (Javy Baez, 131 wRC+, was here). And finally, anything over 140 wRC+ (the top ten hitters this year were 140 or higher) is baseball’s most elite offensive production. The numbers can go MUCH higher than that, of course, as Mike Trout (191 wRC+) has demonstrated, but usually 140 wRC+ and higher is the elite of the elite.

So with that in mind, consider Kris Bryant’s offensive production from his first four big league seasons:

2015: 136 wRC+
2016: 148 wRC+
2017: 146 wRC+
2018: 125 wRC+

As you can see, Bryant set what appeared to be a floor of “sure-fire All-Star” in his rookie season and followed it up with back-to-back elite, MVP-caliber performances in 2016 and 2017. This year, however, he was in that borderline All-Star level, which is a full tier or two lower than what we’ve come to (rightly) expect from him. Of course, this was obviously due to the shoulder injury he suffered on May 19.

In fact, it sure seemed like, prior to the injury, Bryant was on pace for his best offensive season yet. He was performing at levels typically reserved for the best 2-3 hitters in any given year.

From the season opener on March 29th through his last fully healthy game May 18th (174 PAs), Kris Bryant slashed .303/.425/.592, which was good for a 170 wRC+, career bests across the board. But on the 19th, he hurt his shoulder, and his season never quite got back on track.

(Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

From that day forward, Bryant stepped up to the plate just 283 more times, slashing .255/.343/.385 with a slightly below average 98 wRC+. Many aspects of Bryant’s game took a hit after his injury – his walk rate dipped, his strikeout rate exploded, his groundball rate increased, etc. – but the total loss of power was probably the most apparent and damming issue: Bryant had a .289 ISO before his injury, which would’ve ranked just outside the top 5 in baseball at the end of this season, but a .130 ISO afterwords, which would’ve ranked outside the top 100.

We could drill down further into the data to analyze why his power evaporated, but I think we all more or less know it was due to his shoulder injury. At last check, Theo Epstein said he still believed surgery would not be necessary to repair Bryant’s shoulder, so this all leads us into the multi-million dollar question … will the recovery/injury seep into Bryant’s production next season?

It’s a legitimate question and fear, but thankfully there’s evidence to believe that it will not!

At The Athletic, Sahadev Sharma did some excellent investigative work, looking back at players who’ve had similar injuries (shoulder inflammation to their front arm (left for righties and right for lefties)), and the fruits of that research were definitely positive. You can and should check out his article for the full explanations and charts, but the super short version is that, in similar instances, a player’s ISO returned back to its usual levels in the season immediately following the injury.

But Sharma takes it a step further, digging into even more serious non-surgical shoulder injuries, and finding more good news involving players returning to pre-injury levels of performance, albeit with some reduction in playing time. Read his piece for the full details. It should be comforting, even as we recognize no two injuries are identical, nor are two players’ abilities to heal.

Armed with this knowledge, there is some reason for confidence that Bryant can and will return into that elite tier of performance next year, though we must brace for the fact that Bryant could miss some time. Of course, Joe Maddon will probably give Bryant more than the usual amount of rest to combat that deterioration, but it’s something to prepare for nonetheless. Working in Bryant’s favor is his relative youth, track record of health, and the sort of work ethic that eliminates any questions of effort or ignorance to the importance of the rehabilitation process. But, I’m a Cubs fan, so I remain guarded.

At a minimum, it seems reasonable to hope that Bryant should be at his full effectiveness, whenever he’s on the field. 

Read much more about his injury, the history and outcome of similar cases, and his expectations for next season at The Athletic.

written by

Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

more cubs news

The Morel Foul Ball, Madrigal’s D, Busch Heads Up, Langford Respect, and Other Cubs Bullets

Ah, now the obligatory off-day after Opening Day. And an Opening Day loss no less, which always makes today that much better, right ... You could hang on so many things from the opening loss - one-run losses in heavily-scrutinized...

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

Latest News

Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Miami Marlins (0-1) are favorites (-132) on the moneyline when they square off against the Pittsburgh Pirates (1-0) Friday at 7:10 PM ET, live on BSFL.Miami's Andrew Jacob Puk and Pittsburgh's Martin Perez have been named the starters for...

Rays vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Tampa Bay Rays (0-1) and Toronto Blue Jays (1-0) meet Friday at Tropicana Field, starting at 6:50 PM ET on SNET. The Rays are -122 moneyline favorites for the contest, however, the Blue Jays are favored against the spread...

Astros vs. Yankees Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The New York Yankees (1-0) visit the Houston Astros (0-1) for a road game on Friday at 8:10 PM ET.The Astros will look to Cristian Javier versus the Yankees and Carlos Rodon.Astros vs. Yankees Pitcher Matchup and Game InfoWhen: Friday,...

Bet $5 with FanDuel Promo Code, Win $200 Bonus Including NCAA Tournament

This weekend is packed with great sports action including the NCAA Tournament, MLB, and NBA for bettors. Check out the FanDuel promo code to score a $200 bonus if your first $5 bet wins! If you live in NC, you...

DraftKings Promo Code: Get $150 for $5 Bet on College Basketball and More Sports

This time of the year on the sports calendar is truly special with the MLB season starting, college basketball in full swing, and much more! Don't miss out on the chance to grab a bonus by using the latest DraftKings...

Rays vs. Blue Jays Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The Toronto Blue Jays (1-0) play on the road against the Tampa Bay Rays (0-1) at Tropicana Field. The game is set to start at 6:50 PM ET on Friday.The Rays will call on Aaron Civale versus the Blue Jays...

Marlins vs. Pirates Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The Pittsburgh Pirates (1-0) play on Friday in Miami against the Miami Marlins (0-1). First pitch is at 7:10 PM ET.The Marlins will call on Andrew Jacob Puk against the Pirates and Martin Perez.Marlins vs. Pirates Pitcher Matchup and Game...

Duke vs Houston Predictions and Odds: March Madness Best Bets

We have a couple of number-one seeds in March Madness action tonight including Houston (32-4) as the Cougars take on Duke (26-8). Check out the odds and more for Duke vs Houston which tips off tonight at 9:39 pm ET...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offseason Preview: 2024 Free Agents and Team Needs

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enjoyed a successful 2023 season, capturing their third straight NFC South title and pushing the Detroit Lions in a thrilling Divisional Round matchup. This strong showing translates to a relatively stable roster with few glaring weaknesses...

NC State vs Marquette Predictions and Odds: March Madness Best Bets

March Madness matchups bring us a great battle tonight as 11-seed NC State battles 2-seed Marquette. Check out the odds, stats, and more for NC State vs Marquette which tips off at 7:09 pm ET tonight. NC State vs Marquette...

more cubs news