Free Agent Contract Projections from Jon Heyman and His Expert

Late last week, we kicked off our 2018-2019 offseason preview with a look into Bryce Harper’s exciting trip through free agency from the perspective of the Chicago Cubs. Ultimately, it is still our hope that Harper will be the front office’s primary target of the winter, though multiple, recent developments have indicated otherwise.

But there are a lot of potential free agents out there – 131, give or take – and whether the Cubs decided to spend freely or not, they should be at least involved in many of those discussions. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at the full set of contract predictions made by Jon Heyman and his “expert” to get a sense of the market. We couldn’t possibly share everything here, so be sure to check out the full list at FanCred. We also discussed the financial projections from MLBTR here this weekend.

Bryce Harper is listed first, as he’s expected to land the most lucrative contract of the offseason. Heyman has him at 11 years and $330M total, while his expert has him at 11 years/$374M. That’s a difference of $4M/year (both in actual dollars and AAV), so that’s a pretty sizable gap. Ultimately, I think he’ll land closer to Heyman than his expert, but $350M isn’t out of the question. As for potential landing spots, Heyman lists the Nationals and Phillies as “for sure,” before adding the Giants, Cubs, and Yankees.

Unsurprisingly, Manny Machado is listed next, and he’s expected to get slightly less than Harper. Both Heyman and his expert expect Machado to land a 10-year deal, but the expert is going on the high-end of total dollars ($325M) compared to Heyman ($300M). Of course, Machado’s overall earning potential will almost certainly be decided by Harper’s deal, so their thoughts on Harper probably influenced this position. And that means that, once again, I think Machado could land somewhere in the middle, but probably will not exceed $325M. Heyman believes the Phillies and the Yankees are the most obvious suitors, and I would agree.

A trio of pitchers follow these two prime-aged bats – Dallas Keuchel, Clayton Kershaw, and Patrick Corbin – but I don’t actually expect the Cubs to be involved with any of them. Note that Kershaw wound up extending with the Dodgers for three years and $93 million, a far better deal than the 4/$100M he was projected to get.

The next free agent listed who could be of interest to the Cubs is Craig Kimbrel. The formerly dominant closer wasn’t quite his usually dominant self this season, but he was still good, and should probably ride his name into a big deal. Heyman and his expert are both predicting four years, which sounds right, but their money, is once again spread widely: $60M for the expert, $72M for Heyman.

One of the questions I asked on Twitter the other day was If you could get Andrew McCutchen *and* Manny Machado for the same price as Bryce Harper, would you do it? And the results were almost completely split down the middle. Of course, some people thought the entire premise was unlikely, based on what McCutchen should get in free agency. But, well, maybe that’s not so true. According to Heyman’s expert, McCutchen is in store for just 4 years and $15M/year ($60M total), while Heyman thinks he’ll get fewer years (3) and less money/per season ($13M/year, $39M overall).

So by Heyman’s standards, McCutchen+Machado would cost you $339M total, while Harper would cost $330M, and his expert sees the duo costing $385M total with Harper at $374M. So, basically, the premise is almost exactly spot on … have you changed your mind? Does it even matter?

MLBTR projected McCutchen to the Cubs on a three-year, $45 million deal. While he might not be the top choice for an offensive upgrade, at that price tag, he might not be a bad addition in concert with other moves.

(Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

One very intriguing – perhaps unexpectedly so – free agent to keep an eye on for the Cubs this winter is Marwin Gonzalez. The versatile Houston Astro could play second base for the Cubs, back up Javy Baez at short, and spend time in the outfield as needed. Because of that versatility, however, he won’t come cheap. The expert has him at 4 years and $56M overall while Heyman is just behind that: 4 years, $52M. Ben Zobrist’s 4/$56M with the Cubs is clearly being used as a comp.

Some outgoing Cubs free agents, just as an FYI: Jesse Chavez is projected at one or two years, and about $6 million per year, Justin Wilson is projected at two or three years and $7 to $8 million per year, and Jorge De La Rosa is projected at one year and $2 to $3 million.

The crop of free agents is enormous, so head over to FanCred Sports and check out all the contract projections to get a rough sense of the market.

Brett Taylor contributed to this post.

written by

Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

more cubs news

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

I Dug Deep on the Cubs 2024 Schedule (And I Like What I See)

Finally, with Cody Bellinger in the fold, we can start focusing more seriously on the season ahead. So today, I thought we'd take a look at the Cubs 2024 schedule. You can flip through the Cubs 2024 schedule right here...

Here’s What I’m Betting on the Cubs for Opening Day

I get it. Sports betting isn't for everyone — like, say, the interpreter for an international baseball superstar — but some of us quite enjoy it! If you are one of those people, this article is for you. Below, I'm...

WAKE UP, BASEBALL IS BACK

The day has arrived. Opening Day. The most glorious day on the baseball calendar, save for the day of each Chicago Cubs World Series win, of course. See, I get to say things like that on Opening Day. Maybe the...

Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

Latest News

Top 25 College Basketball Picks and Best Bets: March 28

The Illinois Fighting Illini and the Iowa State Cyclones hit the court in one of four games on the college basketball slate on Thursday that include a ranked team.How to Bet on Top 25 Games[lasso rel="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"]Top 25 Games for...

What Does a Chicago Bears NFL Draft Trade Down Look Like?

You'd think we'd be well-versed in trade-back options after months of wondering what kind of haul it would take for the Bears to move off taking quarterback Caleb Williams with the first pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. But trading...

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Arizona Diamondbacks are moneyline favorites (-230) to begin their season with a home win over the Colorado Rockies on Thursday at 10:10 PM ET, live on ARID.Zac Gallen gets the starting nod for Arizona while Kyle Freeland is Colorado's...

Mariners vs. Red Sox Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Seattle Mariners are moneyline favorites (-162) to begin their season with a home win over the Boston Red Sox on Thursday at 10:10 PM ET, live on NESN.Luis Castillo starts for Seattle while Brayan Bello is Boston's starter for...

Guardians vs. Athletics Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Cleveland Guardians start their season as road favorites (-156) in a matchup with the Oakland Athletics on Thursday at 10:07 PM ET, live on NBCS-CA from Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.Cleveland's Shane Bieber and Oakland's Alex Wood have been named the...

Damian Lillard Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Pelicans – Thursday, March 28, 2024

To beat his 3-point prop, Damian Lillard must make four from downtown on Thursday, when his Milwaukee Bucks face the New Orleans Pelicans, tipping off at 8:00 PM ET.Damian Lillard's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the PelicansDamian Lillard's over/under for three-pointers...

Brook Lopez Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Pelicans – Thursday, March 28, 2024

To beat his 3-point prop, Brook Lopez needs to make two from downtown on Thursday, when his Milwaukee Bucks meet the New Orleans Pelicans, starting at 8:00 PM ET.Brook Lopez's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the PelicansBrook Lopez's over/under for three-pointers...

Giannis Antetokounmpo Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Pelicans – Thursday, March 28, 2024

Will Giannis Antetokounmpo make just a single 3-pointer when the Milwaukee Bucks play the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday at 8:00 PM ET? If so, he'll beat his over/under for the game.Giannis Antetokounmpo's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the PelicansGiannis Antetokounmpo's...

CJ McCollum Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Bucks – Thursday, March 28, 2024

To beat his 3-point over/under, CJ McCollum must make four from downtown on Thursday, when his New Orleans Pelicans play the Milwaukee Bucks, beginning at 8:00 PM ET.CJ McCollum's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the BucksCJ McCollum's over/under for three-pointers in...

Devils vs. Sabres Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The New Jersey Devils are -115 on the moneyline and the Buffalo Sabres are at -105 for their game on Friday at KeyBank Center in Buffalo.Devils vs. Sabres Favorite, Moneyline, TotalFavorite: Devils (-115)Underdog: Sabres (-105)Total: 6.5Best Devils vs. Sabres Promo...

more cubs news