Although free agency unofficially began after the World Series ended and officially opened up on Friday evening, today does sorta feel like the start of the offseason. Unfortunately, even if there have been rumors of a potentially hot start, I doubt much gets done until after the GM Meetings in California, which begin tomorrow and go through Thursday. You can check out a full blueprint of the offseason right here.
Of course, those GM Meetings are not to be confused with the *extremely* busy Winter Meetings, which go down in December. Usually, there’ll be a handful of significant moves before the Winter Meetings anyway, but there’s a chance Bryce Harper and Manny Machado could gum up the lines a bit. I suppose we’ll see.
Here’s the latest from around the rumor mill …
The overwhelming chatter in the Cubs world lately is the possibility that they’ll have little to no financial flexibility this winter without additional payroll cutting – like, not just not Bryce Harper money; almost no money to spend at all without further trades. And that’s certainly struck us as a bit odd. After examining the Cubs payroll closely, we can confirm that the team is already up against the second highest luxury tax threshold, which means that spending even “a quality relief arm” amount of money in free agency (plus the money they earmark for in-season pickups and bonuses) would put them against the upper-most tier of the luxury tax system. That is true.
We’re not arguing that they’re not already spending a lot of money, they are … we’re just saying that given (1) the team needs, (2) the uniquely valuable competitive window, (3) the fact that the only actual considerations are financial, as the additional draft pick penalties at the top tier aren’t really all that bad, (4) the money coming off the books next season, and (4) the fact that the Cubs TV deal (and attendant revenue boost) is just a year away … they should be in a position to be aggressive. The Ricketts Family has never been cheap with this club – and it’d be hard to say they were even if they don’t spend this winter – but now is not the time to lay off the gas.
Which brings me to a local report that kinda runs contrary to that narrative. Kinda. While examining some potential targets this winter, the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzalez writes that the Cubs “could earmark most of their free-agent money toward a big-ticket hitter” while trying to address other needs, like the bullpen, through the trade market. It’s not much, but it’s not nothing. Really. That’s how far this “Cubs won’t spend” rumor has gotten, but, well, you know …
When considering the Cubs’ biggest competitors for Bryce Harper this winter, the Nationals, Dodgers, and Phillies probably come up more than most (and for good reason), but we might need to keep a closer eye on the Giants this offseason. Or at least, so go the rumors. Like the Phillies, they have money to spend, a reason to spend it, and an attractive organization. Even if the Cubs are not restricted financially this winter, landing Harper isn’t going to be easy. For what it’s worth, Buster Olney also writes that Harper to the Giants could make some sense, at least from the Giants perspective. They’ll need to get a new front office in place first.
Ken Rosenthal drops a ton of notes at The Athletic and it’s basically a list every non-Cubs team that just can’t wait to drop dollars this winter, which is a bit frustrating. HOWEVA, it’s not entirely without hope. Rosenthal does say that while the Cubs appear unlikely to spend big, “Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are going to do something interesting, maybe multiple things,” which, okay, I’m listening. Unfortunately, that’s where he stops. I’ll add that, regardless of their financial plans, I’d expect at least one fairly notable, big-league trade for the Cubs this winter, given Theo Epstein’s end-of-season comments, and the constitution of the roster. Rosenthal shares A TON – be sure to read this one.
Joel Sherman thinks the Yankees will spend big this winter, but not on Harper or Manny Machado. Instead, he thinks the Phillies are the one team that could legitimately land both (they won’t), though Machado is more likely. He also believes the Cardinals will be active this winter, including pursuits of Harper and Machado, while Josh Donaldson, Zach Britton, and Craig Kimbrel could all be targets, too. But you don’t have to take Sherman’s word for it. Cardinals President John Mozeliak seems to want it known that the Cardinals are in on elite players this winter and do not intend to continue finishing as runners up (Jason Heyward, David Price, Giancarlo Stanton). More on that here in Brett’s earlier discussion about the Cardinals and Bryce Harper.
Sherman makes the case for the Mets targeting and signing Manny Machado this winter, and, yeah, sure, some of his arguments carry weight, but I’ll believe it when I see it. The saying goes “People teach you how they’ll treat you” and the Mets owners have taught us plenty about their financial intentions over the past decade. In a separate Mets post, Sherman discusses potential targets and options, including a cost-effective reunion with Daniel Murphy. Now THAT sounds like the Mets.
Chris Haft (MLB.com) writes that the Giants might have to trade Jeff Samardzija or Johnny Cueto to make long-term room for Madison Bumgarner. But he also writes that the team might not hire their new GM until closer to Thanksgiving, which would not provide a ton of time to get ready for the offseason. The Giants are going to be a real wild card team this winter, and the path they chose will impact a lot.
At the NY Post, Ken Davidoff tries to predict the contract and landing spot of MLB’s top 30 free agents, and there are some surprises. For example, he’s guessing Harper to the Cardinals for 10 years and $330M (my take? right deal, wrong team) and Manny Machado to the Phillies for six years and $225M (my take? right team, wrong deal). Davidoff also has the Cardinals landing Mike Moustakas, and does not mention the Cubs once.
Evan Grant discusses the Texas Rangers plans this offseason, including needed decisions on trading Nomar Mazara or Jurickson Profar. I bring this up because, if you haven’t been paying attention, the Cubs and Rangers tend to do A LOT of deals together, and both Mazara and Profar are young, former top . prospects. Profar, in particular, could be a fit given his ability to play second base and shortstop, but so much of this depends on what the Cubs have planned for Addison Russell, so it’s just something to keep in the back of your mind at the moment. Plus, the Rangers are looking for pitching prospects or controllable starters, so there might not be much of a fit, unless they’re interested in Tyler Chatwood at a reduced rate.
And finally, remember: don’t sleep on the Reds forever. Eventually they’ll, you know, try:
#Reds showing interest in multiple starting pitchers early in free agency, sources say. Patrick Corbin and J.A. Happ are among the starters they like. @MLBNetwork@MLB
Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL.
In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy.
You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami
Boy did he need that! The Chicago Cubs top prospect, Pete Crow-Armstrong, was called up this season not because he was quite ready offensively, but out of necessity after multiple injuries to the Cubs starting outfielders. And, predictably, he looked...
I knew Dan Straily was pitching in Korea, and I knew there was a time in relatively recent memory that he was trying to come back to MLB. But sometime between then and now, he fell off my radar as...
CUBS LINEUP — The Cubs won again last night, which means they've already won the season-series against the still-struggling Astros. Justin Verlander will be on the bump for today's finale, but he'll have to go up against the mighty Javier...
Brennen Davis made his return to Triple-A last night, and of course, he managed to smack a three-run home run in an 8-2 win for the Iowa Cubs. That and more in today's Cubs Farm Report. Cubs Farm Report |...
It's a pretty big day for the Chicago Bears, eh? For the second year in a row, they own the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Only this time, they actually plan to use it (and on a quarterback,...
That's a geographic mouthful right there, and it underscores what an interesting signing this is. Stray signings throughout the year are not uncommon, particularly as injuries accumulate down on the farm and the Chicago Cubs have the ability to take...
Once a month since August of 2016, my friends and I get together for "Supper Club." It's like book club, but instead of reading books, we go to a different restaurant in the city. Last night, we hit our 77th...
The Cubs did all their scoring in the first, and made it stand up for the win with generally good pitching and generally good defense. Jameson Taillon looked solid again in his second start, locating well, giving up no barrels,...
For the second straight night, the Cubs are jumping all over the Astros in the first inning. After a couple hits from Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ to get things going, Michael Busch hit a sac fly, Christopher Morel walked,...
What a road it's been - continues to be - for Cubs outfield prospect Brennen Davis. The former top prospect was on a rocket ship to Triple-A in 2021, and then mostly lost the last two years to various injuries....
Boy did he need that! The Chicago Cubs top prospect, Pete Crow-Armstrong, was called up this season not because he was quite ready offensively, but out of necessity after multiple injuries to the Cubs starting outfielders. And, predictably, he looked...
The Los Angeles Lakers meet the Denver Nuggets at 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and one of the 3-pointer over/unders available for this clash requires two trifectas from LeBron...
D'Angelo Russell must make four 3-pointers to beat his prop when the Los Angeles Lakers play the Denver Nuggets on Thursday at 10:00 PM ET, in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs.D'Angelo Russell's Three-Pointer Prop Odds...
To beat his 3-point over/under, Michael Porter Jr. must make three from downtown on Thursday, when his Denver Nuggets face the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, tipping off at 10:00 PM...
On Thursday at 10:00 PM ET, the Denver Nuggets face the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and Jamal Murray's 3-pointer prop for this clash requires three treys.Jamal Murray's Three-Pointer Prop Odds...
Nikola Jokic's Denver Nuggets meet the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday at 10:00 PM ET in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and to beat his 3-point over/under, he needs to make two from downtown.Nikola Jokic's...
The Los Angeles Lakers play the Denver Nuggets at 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and one of the 3-pointer props available for this clash requires just one trey from...
I knew Dan Straily was pitching in Korea, and I knew there was a time in relatively recent memory that he was trying to come back to MLB. But sometime between then and now, he fell off my radar as...
If you're looking for chaos on NFL Draft day, you just might get it. And leave it to the script-writers to get a team out in Hollywood involved. Here is a scoop from The Athletic's Dianna Russini, who hears the...
The Kansas City Royals are on the road, opening a three-game set against the Detroit Tigers on Friday, April 26 at 1:10 PM ET.Tigers vs. Royals Series Info Royals @ Tigers Time: Friday, April 26 at 1:10 PM ET Tigers...
NEWSLETTER
