The Royals Want Everyone to Know They Totally Don’t Have to Trade Whit Merrifield

This winter, I’ve been mentally separating the Cubs-related rumors/speculation/analysis into two distinct buckets.

Bucket A: Includes everything we thought the Cubs were going to do before the offseason began, like becoming heavily involved in the upper-most tier of free agent targets like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. And …

Bucket B: Everything since – i.e. the Cubs might be a little tied up financially this offseason, so their moves will have to be creative, at best, or non-existent (at least, in free agency), at worst.

But one item, in particular, has revealed the grey-area in between my otherwise rock-solid buckets: a trade for Whit Merrifield.

In case you missed the rumors over the weekend, Bruce Levine paired the Cubs and Royals together, suggesting a player like Merrifield could be the perfect answer to a number of the Cubs’ questions (leadoff hitter, second baseman, versatile position player capable of covering shortstop in Addison Russell’s absence), while the Cubs could part with the sort of young, big league, upside-and-team-control-remaining talent a team like the Royals could want (some combination of Russell, Ian Happ, and/or Carl Edwards Jr.), at least over a guy who is about to hit his 30s.

And frankly, I can actually see the bones of something real there. Russell might be as available as any player in baseball for obvious reasons, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t still offer to other teams Gold Glove defense at shortstop and a fairly high ceiling at the plate. Ian Happ, meanwhile, is a fast, switch-hitting, versatile, young, cheap, power-hitting, likeable …. wait a minute, I don’t think I want to trade him … and Carl Edwards Jr. has been, at times, one of the more dominant bullpen arms in the game. If losing any two of those guys seems like it would be a tough pill to swallow, that’s because it would be, but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be fair to consider. After all, Merrifield was very good last year.

Here’s how Brett kicked off his discussion of Merrifield this weekend:

If the Cubs are looking for versatile players capable of playing in the middle infield and outfield, while also looking for an offensive impact in a lineup that theoretically has a lot of middle-of-the-order power (if it bounces back), you’d be hard-pressed to find a more perfect addition than the 2018 version of the Royals’ Whit Merrifield.

So why do I bring this up today? Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star writes about the Royals’ apparent reluctance to trade Merrifield this winter, but I think it comes with a great deal of fog covering some otherwise obvious motivations.

To begin, Mellinger reminds folks that Merrifield led MLB in hits and steals while playing five different defensive positions last season, noting that he also has four years of relatively cheap club control remaining and would be the perfect addition to most contenders: “He is productive, cheap, versatile, athletic, and could instantly fit toward the top of a championship club’s order.”

Mellinger concedes that the Royals’ own internal evaluations suggest that the core of their next contending team won’t hit the big leagues until 2021, when Merrifield will be 32 and will have only two years remaining.

And if I might add to Mellinger’s point: Yes, Merrifield was great last year, but that was his first truly great season in the big leagues and it came at age 29. Sure, some players break out late into their careers, but it’s rare and even when it does happen, that doesn’t mean it’ll last. Point being, aside from the obvious (he’ll never be younger, he’ll never have more years of cheap team control), Merrifield’s trade value might never be higher than it is right now based solely on the fact that he’s coming off a monster year (which was, itself, a surprise breakout late into a player’s career).

Also, as Brett noted:

Consider the case from the Royals’ perspective: yes, it’d be nice to have a cheap guy like Merrifield on a competitive team, but what if they’re not going to be competitive for a few more years? Then you’re talking about a guy who broke out with a monster year at age 29 (.304/.367/.438, 120 wRC+, 45 steals, good defense, 5.2 WAR), with little track record or pedigree to support that kind of performance.

Moreover, much of his offensive production was predicated on a .352 BABIP (12th highest in baseball) despite a 36.9% hard contact rate, which ranked 78th. Steamer projects Merrifield to be a .274/.329/.405 hitter next year, with a 99 wRC+. A 2.7-win player when you account for defense and baserunning – nice guy to have – but far from an impact bat at the top of the order. A full 67 hitters are projected to produce more WAR next year.

Maybe you think he is a late-bloomer who will outperform that projection considerably. Or maybe not. That’s the risk the Royals run by hanging onto him past this moment.

So it’s a no-brainer right? The Royals should trade an older, breakout star before he loses value in age, contract status, and overall effectiveness, especially as the Royals, themselves, admit that they do not expect to contend over the next two years … right? Eh, not so fast.

(Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)

Mellinger explains that (1) finding the right trade partner won’t be an easy task, though he does list the Braves, Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers (no Cubs) as potential suitors, (2) the Royals “don’t want to go backwards,” and (3) the Royals don’t yet know what pieces will fit in the future.

Hopefully, I don’t need to remind you that at this time of the year, there can be a lot of misinformation out there, but I will. I’m not saying – in any way – this isn’t something Mellinger hasn’t heard directly from a very excellent source within the Royals organization, but to say this isn’t a fairly obvious attempt at a leverage grab wouldn’t be right either. I mean, after all, those reasons sound right but they’re also full of holes, some of which were pointed out by Mellinger earlier in his very article.

Without getting too deeply into the speculative weeds, I’ll just say this: I’m willing to bet that Merrifield’s value will never be higher than it is right now (except MAYBE at this upcoming trade deadline), and the Royals are pretty clearly rebuilding. I know some external factors – like selling one of their best, most popular players the year before they try to sign a new TV deal – might not seem like the best move, but frankly, it is. And of course this: “Even if the return in a trade might be a little higher right now, it won’t matter if the pieces don’t fit together” just doesn’t track logically. In my opinion, you always take the best available talent, not the best “roster fit”, and make it all work later.

In other words, if I were a Royals fan, if the club isn’t going to try to compete in 2019, I’d be pushing to get a deal done this winter. Or, heck, even if the Royals wanted to try to rebuild and compete at the same time, maybe they would be overall improved by adding guys like Russell and Edwards than by hanging onto Merrifield.

SO, the way I see it, the news today isn’t really the Royals are considering holding onto Merrifield, but rather: the Royals know they have to trade Merrifield and have begun the full court press on increasing their leverage through the press. Moreover, I suppose the Cubs, if they are truly interested in securing his services, will likely have to compete with a good many other suitors.

And thankfully, despite some obvious risk, the addition of Merrifield would actually be an exciting turn in the Cubs’ offseason plans. Perhaps it would fall short of signing Bryce Harper, but it would certainly land somewhere above the low-expectations of Bucket B.

More at the Kansas City Star.

written by

Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

more cubs news

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

Latest News

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offseason Preview: 2024 Free Agents and Team Needs

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enjoyed a successful 2023 season, capturing their third straight NFC South title and pushing the Detroit Lions in a thrilling Divisional Round matchup. This strong showing translates to a relatively stable roster with few glaring weaknesses...

NC State vs Marquette Predictions and Odds: March Madness Best Bets

March Madness matchups bring us a great battle tonight as 11-seed NC State battles 2-seed Marquette. Check out the odds, stats, and more for NC State vs Marquette which tips off at 7:09 pm ET tonight. NC State vs Marquette...

Best NBA Prop Bets Today – Friday, March 29, 2024

Today's NBA schedule has 12 quality competitions in store. Among those games is the Minnesota Timberwolves playing the Denver Nuggets.NBA prop bets for today's games are available, so if you're interested in placing a bet or building a parlay, you'll...

Updated Elite 8 Odds: UConn Betting Favorite To Win March Madness

There were some great performances last night including a 30-point win by the UConn Huskies sending them to the Elite Eight. Are they the betting favorite to win March Madness? What team is sitting on top of the odds to...

UConn vs. Illinois Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Elite Eight

The No. 1 seed UConn Huskies (34-3) are 8.5-point favorites to advance to the Final Four when they play the No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (29-8) in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight on Saturday at TD Garden, airing on...

Alabama vs. Clemson Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Elite Eight

The No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (24-11) and No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers (24-11) will both be vying for a spot in the NCAA Tournament Final Four when they meet on Saturday at Crypto.com Arena, tipping off at 8:49...

How to Watch UConn Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: Live Stream or on TV

The No. 1 seed UConn Huskies (34-3) will take on the No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (29-8) in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight on Saturday at TD Garden, airing on TBS starting at 6:09 PM ET.UConn won its previous...

Alabama vs. Clemson: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

The No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers (24-11) will take the court for an NCAA Tournament Elite Eight matchup with the No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (24-11) on Saturday at Crypto.com Arena, airing on TBS beginning at 8:49 PM ET,...

Today’s March Madness Schedule: Updated Bracket, TV Channels for Every Game

We saw some wild games last night as the Sweet 16 started hot as March Madness continues. There are great matchups tonight worth checking out. Take a look at today's March Madness schedule for Friday, March 29. The Sweet 16...

Big Ten Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 29

There is one game on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature Big Ten squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That matchup is the Gonzaga Bulldogs versus the Purdue Boilermakers.How to Bet on Big Ten Games[lasso ref="draftkings-promo-1"...

more cubs news