NEWSLETTER
Although this current free agent class has been drawing headlines for years thanks to big name guys like Clayton Kershaw, Andrew McCutchen, Dallas Keuchel, A.J. Pollock, Craig Kimbrel, and the like, everyone knows the true gem of the class – at least in narrative form – has always been Bryce Harper (with all due respect to Manny Machado).
Because it’s SO RARE for players of Harper’s (or Machado’s) caliber to become free agents this young, his mere availability is a market-stopper. Obviously, some teams will always have more reasons and/or means to target these guys than others, but every single roster could fit one of these two players into their short and long-term plans from a purely competitive perspective, and that just doesn’t happen too often. We recently discussed all that comes with Bryce Harper as a free agent. You want this dude on your team.
So with that in mind, Sports Illustrated has made an effort to measure and arrange each team’s ability to sign Bryce Harper this winter, while including all relevant context (roster, financial, competitiveness, etc.) for such a decision. And although the entire piece is worth of your attention as a pure-status check on each club, there were a few things that really stood out to me.
You can see the full post here at Sports Illustrated, but I want to focus on the Cubs section, in particular, for obvious reasons. Here’s how each tier was grouped, with the Cubs falling into the top tier:
Tier 1: The Favorites
Teams:Â Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals
SI’s explanation for the four teams in this tier: “Their combination of roster, financial situation, location, and status makes them ideal fits for Harper. My bet is that, at the end of the winter, it will be one of these four holding a press conference with Harper putting on their jersey and smiling.”
When I first read this article and found the Cubs listed among the “favorites,” I was surprised. I thought, for sure, someone at Sports Illustrated forgot to do their homework on the Cubs’ apparent spending limitations this winter, but that’s not the case. Instead, the author, Jon Taylor, simply refuses to believe the Cubs, “who have perhaps the best young collection of talent this side of Houston,” won’t spend to improve this winter. In fact, he calls it “crazy” and jokingly suggests it should-be felony if it were to happen. And, when you consider the payroll situation and the luxury tax implications, maybe Taylor isn’t being unfair.
Taylor concedes that few (if any) teams have the sort of ceiling the Cubs have and that everyone remembers what it looks like when everything goes right (2016 Cubs), but correctly points out that even “super teams” can stumble (as we saw in certain ways over the last two seasons), and that adding Harper would (1) help create distance from a surging Brewers team and (2) give the Cubs yet another under-30 player to help extend the window. In the end, he suggests it makes “too much sense” not to happen. Fair. Fair.
Of course, that doesn’t mean it will happen.
For one, we can’t totally ignore what the Cubs have said, where the payroll stands, and what the rumors are. For that reason alone, we probably shouldn’t get our hopes up for no reason. But that’s not really the point here. Indeed, all we’re saying is, yes, Bryce Harper makes a TON of sense for these Cubs right now. It’s up to the front office to decide what to do with that information, but if they say he’s not needed or doesn’t fit, well, they’d be hard pressed to find folks who agree.
For another reason you can’t presume this will happen, even if the Cubs were one of the favorites, that just gets you a seat at the table. And the table, as hypothesized by SI, already includes three other very plausible destinations. The Nationals have already extended a 10-year, $30M offer (and might be willing to improve that), the Dodgers are supposed to have unlimited money, and the Phillies, well, they’re the odds-on favorites at this point, given their needs, corner-turning, available dollars, and expected competitiveness.
A set of counterarguments if you must? The Dodgers might be artificially limiting spending in order to attract new investors, so who knows how that plays out. The Nationals have failed to so much as win a playoff series with Harper to this point, and, while they reportedly offered a $300M deal, I would be SHOCKED if a ton of that money wasn’t deferred (as they’ve done in the past).
As for the Phillies …. Listen, do I think they’ll be better next year? Absolutely. The Mets are in a transitional place, the Marlins are rebuilding, and the Nationals disappointed wildly last year even with Harper. But the Phillies fell way off in the secon dhalf last year, and the Braves look really good. If Harper wants to win – and considering he’s never won a single playoff series yet in his career – the Cubs may be his best near and long-term bet.
We still can’t let ourselves forget the well-sourced spending rumors, but Harper just seems to make a lot of sense and it’s not just local Cubs fans/writers/analysts who agree. Harper is special and he is available. Sometimes that’s enough for teams to be involved, even when it really seems like they won’t be.
Check out SO MUCH MORE in a really great Bryce Harper round-up at Sports Illustrated.
