A Plausible Brandon Kintzler Comeback, Attacking Hitters Appropriately, and Other Bullets

The Little Girl and I did a daddy-daughter date night last night, and it was awesome. Burgers, dancing, games, balloons, and literal star-gazing. I know some of you have been around here since before she was born, and she turned 8 this month (her arrival marked the turning point in taking BN from hobby to full-time job). She is just so fantastic. I’m shaking my head, grinning like an idiot in this coffee shop as I type.

• From the time he became a bullpen regular (with the Brewers) in 2013, through the 2017 season, Brandon Kintzler was an excellent reliever. He didn’t strike anyone out, but he managed contact exceptionally well, got a huge groundball rate (57.7%), didn’t give up homers (0.71 per 9), and walked nobody (5.6%). Thus, over 268.0 innings, he posted a very good 3.09 ERA, about 24% better than league average. And, by my eyes, he earned it.
• Then 2018 happened, as Kintzler turned 34, may have been dumped on the Cubs because the Nationals thought he was a clubhouse rat, and then he was abysmal. His then 3.59 ERA with the Nationals became a 7.00 with the Cubs, his peripherals uniformly tanked, and he was utterly unusable for the Cubs at the time they needed him most. It was only 18.0 innings, but they were almost all bad, and Cubs fans have long memories for that kind of thing.
• Still, with some distance, can we step back and at least leave open the possibility that those 18.0 innings were a blip and the nearly 300 that preceded them were the real Kintzler? It’s certainly possible. We do have to acknowledge that his velocity did dip a bit and he’ll turn 35 this year, so it’s also possible he’s just done. But he’s here, he’s going to have a decent-sized leash to win a spot in the bullpen, and he’s recently been very good. I’ll root for him.
• I am glad Kintzler mentioned this second point:

During Winter Meetings, Cubs new PC Tommy Hottovy went to Brandon Kintzler's house in Vegas to watch him throw.

BK: "I didn't think he actually would, but he Ubered his way over. I was impressed."

Kintzler said key for him in '19 is focusing on strengths, not scouting reports.

— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) February 17, 2019

• Obviously, the best chance for success against a given hitter is if you attack his weaknesses *AND* you happen to be really good at doing that thing (i.e., setting him up with inside fastballs, wiping him away with a hard slider low and away). But what if his weakness is also your weakness? What if there’s something he’s mediocre against, but you’re badass doing? Then stick with what works for you. There’s a balance there.
• (In case you were wondering about pitch mix, nah, I don’t detect a huge shift in his usage last year after coming to the Cubs – maybe a slight early uptick in slider usage, but his sinker usage was actually up, and not enough that it was clearly an intentional change. That said, his slider usage overall for 2018 was way down compared to 2017, but flat with 2016. So, yeah, I don’t really see anything here. Rather, I’ll just hope an offseason to reset and get comfortable with his new team will set Kintzler right.)

• Deals of the Day at Amazon today include sheets, shelves, and books.
• Cole Hamels offers his veteran take on projections:

Cubs’ Cole Hamels: “Computers aren’t always right” pic.twitter.com/zwcXsOkIr2

— Mark Gonzales (@MDGonzales) February 16, 2019

• I’m just saying, it *did* happen last year:

Sunday morning measured optimism …

If Jason Heyward, still just 29, improves in 2019 as much as he did from 2017 to 2018, then he'd have about a 110 wRC+, which is more or less his career mark, and he'd be an All-Star.

— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) February 17, 2019

• You’re on Candid Camera:

Two things the Cubs think are worth smiling about this season? 2016 MVP Kris Bryant says the shoulder that bothered him in '18 is "perfect." And 2018 MVP runnerup Javy Baez says he expects to be better in 2019. (John Antonoff photo) pic.twitter.com/xSS1YZiF39

— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubCub) February 16, 2019

Heads up! Fanatics just clicked on a sitewide sale that has a whole bunch of stuff (including some new stuff) on sale, plus free shipping. Cubs stuff, Bears stuff, other stuff. Stuff.