How Framing Has Hurt Cubs Pitchers, Grace Was Unique, and Other Bullets

Mar 20, 2019

Be advised: we had a caching problem at the site yesterday, so if the home page isn’t showing new posts, you may need to “refresh” once (and/or clear browser cache) for the fix to come through. Very sorry about that, but hopefully it’ll be fixed going forward.

An extremely, extremely significant update to WAR at FanGraphs, as it now is also incorporating pitch-framing into catcher WAR, just as BP has been doing – and it also impacts pitcher WAR very slightly:

WAR Update: Catcher Framing! https://t.co/ta0omAIirN

— FanGraphs Baseball (@fangraphs) March 20, 2019

We’ll have to dig into this more, but as you would expect, Willson Contreras rates quite poorly, his WAR has been dinged accordingly, and he projects quite poorly going into 2019. I understand that pitch-framing is not uniformly accepted as a valuable skill, but in a world where we can identify the precise spin rate on a 99 mph fastball, it should go without saying that we have the data available to determine which catchers are, in the aggregate (and neutralizing for pitchers and umpires), better at preserving extra strikes at the margins. Of course we can tell. And if you have watched Contreras the last couple years with your eyes, you already know this is an issue.

It clearly hurt Cubs pitchers:

No huge surprise, even as it remains disconcerting: among the pitchers most hurt by poor catcher pitch-framing last year? Four Cubs starters in the bottom 11.
For context, if Lester hadn't given up those extra 2.6 runs, his ERA goes from 3.32 to 3.19. pic.twitter.com/3DqB9dID6c

— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) March 20, 2019

The good news is that pitch-framing is a skill that *CAN* be improved dramatically over a single offseason, and Contreras knows he needs to work on it. He got some tips from his brother – a catching prospect in the Braves organization – and we could see a better framer this year. It’s not as if Contreras is not athletic enough, doesn’t care enough, etc. We need him to show it, but, yes, it is absolutely possible that he improves this year.

Michael has reasonable hashtag opinions:

I wish the Cubs would've updated their 2019 hashtag to something other than #EverybodyIn – I've got nothing against, but wouldn't have minded a fresh start after the way last season (and this winter) went.
There's some legit ones in here –>pic.twitter.com/tNhhkEyXuc

— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) March 20, 2019

https://twitter.com/michael_cerami/status/1108381795442216965?s=21

That is indeed wild:

Random stat: In 2000, while Mark Grace was 36 and in his final season with the Cubs, he walked 67 (!!!) more times than he struck out, drawing 95 free passes vs. only 28 whiffs. Incredible
— Tony Andracki (@TonyAndracki23) March 20, 2019

I wonder what Grace’s career would have looked like if he came up in an era where hard contact in the air was valued so much more highly above contact. He was certainly big enough and strong enough to have quite a bit more power, but would his overall game have suffered for it? Was he just a guy who was preternaturally built to have a high-contact, line-drive stroke, and if you tried to tinker, you’d just jack him up? Dude just did not strike out – 6.9% for his career.

Kyle Schwarber for MVP? Well, maybe at very long odds:

https://twitter.com/NBCSCubs/status/1108329839780487168

A reminder that we’re looking to hire a full-time Bulls writer here at BN, details here. For those of you who are CUBS-ONLY people, no worries: the incorporation of Bulls coverage will be like when we started covering the Bears. Yes, I’m gonna reference stuff from time to time here in the Bullets, but that’s probably the only intermingling with the Cubs coverage that you’ll notice.

Speaking of which, a couple of the latest Bears items:

The Lure of Playing With Khalil Mack Has Already Helped the Bears in Free Agency https://t.co/4NOO5uUOVA pic.twitter.com/HKDaRbXnEM

— Bleacher Nation Bears (@BN_Bears) March 19, 2019

Love it or Hate it? The Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Buster Skrine Signings Are Drawing Very Different Reviews https://t.co/gppFCVzldz pic.twitter.com/dJ6QJlbDSi
— Bleacher Nation Bears (@BN_Bears) March 19, 2019

written by

Brett Taylor

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

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How Framing Has Hurt Cubs Pitchers, Grace Was Unique, and Other Bullets

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