Heyward’s Absurd Double Play Rate, Cubs Hard Contact, Brewers Skill and Luck, and Other Bullets

Apr 04, 2019

Last call: today is the deadline to apply for our full-time Bulls writer position. Details here. Yes, that means eventually we will be covering the Bulls (in addition to the Bears) here at Bleacher Nation. I just think there are folks out there looking for BN-style coverage of other Chicago sports, and I’m excited to help develop that. My personal focus will always remain the Cubs, and for those of you who are EXCLUSIVELY Cubs fans, no worries: whatever happens with our coverage of other sports, you will always be able to come straight to the Cubs coverage if you want, just like it’s been for 10 years.

And how could you NOT want to focus on Cubs coverage when there’s so much joyful stuff to get into …

On the whole, I remain very positive about, and encouraged by, the offense. If they can avoid trying to do too much to overcome any perception they may have about the bullpen’s weaknesses, they look like they’re really on the right track so far.

Well, with at least one obvious exception – though it’s been the story for a few years now, so it’s not an unexpected one. Jason Heyward continues to struggle with the ability to hit the ball hard in the air. He’s actually hitting the ball reasonably hard overall … but it’s just all on the ground, which actually makes him even more susceptible to double plays.

Speaking of which, Jason Heyward leads baseball with five grounded into double plays already in five games, which is truly remarkable. It’s kind of funny when you remember that this is not at all sustainable (right?):

Jason Heyward has hit into 5 double plays this year already in 2019. That's more than 20 TEAMS.

— Tony Andracki (@TonyAndracki23) April 4, 2019

Jason Heyward has ground into more double plays in the first 5 games this year than he did in the entire first half last year

— WhoCanIJinxNext?CountTommy (@FullCountTommy) April 4, 2019

For perspective, 36 is the GIDP record (Jim Rice in 1984… also 2nd with 35 in 1985). Last year the high was Manny Machado with 26. https://t.co/rCKrkvxJRN
— Matt Clapp (@TheBlogfines) April 2, 2019

One more, from me: there were 19 players with at least 500 plate appearances last year who did not ground into more than five double plays. Heyward has done it in five games.

The reality right now that Heyward is facing: until he does some damage, the scouting report is literally going to be to just throw fastballs of any velocity at any location in the strike zone. Until he punishes pitchers for that, why would they do anything else? I don’t *think* it was intentional, but man, Jon Lester walked TWICE in front of Heyward last night. That’s insane.

Note, though, that Jason Heyward’s 50% overall groundball rate is not worst on the team, as Albert Almora and Kris Bryant are currently near 60%. Small samples abound. As a team, the Cubs’ 46.9% groundball rate is 5th highest in baseball.

One positive: the Cubs’ 44.8% hard contact rate is tops in baseball.

That 8th inning last night was so bad that even the national MLB stats guys were taking notice:

Cubs relievers in a 4-run Braves 8th:
35 pitches
10 strikes (!)
5 walks (!!)
1 bases-clearing double pic.twitter.com/C8vHcfFK9c

— David Adler (@_dadler) April 4, 2019

This is indeed a little darkly funny:

Want to know what's especially funny? A lot of the relievers who could have helped the Cubs that they didn't sign have also looked awful:
Sipp 16.20 ERA
A. Miller 6.75 ERA
Robertson 18.00 ERA
Chavez 20.25 ERA
Duke 7.71 ERA
O Perez 27.00 ERA
Kelly 18.00 ERA
Soria 11.25 ERA

— WhoCanIJinxNext?CountTommy (@FullCountTommy) April 4, 2019

I’m going to get crapped on for saying this, but that doesn’t make me wrong … although this is at least partly a reflection of some killer arms in the bullpen, we know enough about baseball to know that this is also a healthy dose of good luck:

The Milwaukee Brewers are now 6-1. They are 5-0 in one-run games, and their other win is by two runs. And on a day when Josh Hader wasn't available, Alex Wilson comes in to lock down the save. Jeremy Jeffress should be back by the end of the month, too. Quite the dangerous team.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) April 3, 2019

That said, it sorta doesn’t matter whether those one-run wins have been 70% skill and 30% luck (or whatever), because they are wins in the book now, and they are wins the Cubs don’t have yet.

(Now, could I say the reverse is also true about the Cubs? That the sucky results thus far are at least partly a reflection of some deep problems in the bullpen, but we know it is also at least partly some small sample bad luck? I could say that. I’d be afraid to. But I could …. )

Never pitch to Ozzie Albies again. I don’t care if that makes me a meatball idiot. The guy has 57 plate appearances against the Cubs the last two years, and he’s hitting .500/.571/.875.

Very good Deals of the Day at Amazon today, with Easter basket stuff, basketball stuff, cheap magazines, and more.

written by

Brett Taylor

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

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Heyward’s Absurd Double Play Rate, Cubs Hard Contact, Brewers Skill and Luck, and Other Bullets

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