Initial 2020 Cubs Arbitration Projections Are Out: Bryant, Baez, Schwarber, Russell, Contreras, Almora, Ryan

With a managerial search underway for the Cubs, it feels like the “offseason” isn’t really going to kick into our psyches until that’s resolved. And then the actual offseason won’t begin until after the World Series concludes later this month.

Still, there are offseason considerations to attend to already on a day like today, from rumors on players coming over from Japan to how the Cubs could use Tyler Chatwood.

And now there’s another biggy: MLB Trade Rumors released its annual arbitration projections, and we get a look at what their system is seeing ahead for the Cubs’ budgetary considerations (as well as all other teams).

To be sure, the MLBTR projections are only that – projections – and they aren’t perfect. But as a reference point for payroll discussions during the offseason? They’ve kinda become the bellwether for the figures the industry uses as placeholders.

Quick arbitration primer:

For players who have at least three years of big league service time (plus the top 22% of players (in terms of service time) with fewer than three years, but more than two years (“Super Two” players who get four arbitration years instead of three)), but who haven’t yet accumulated the six years necessary for free agency, it’s time to get some arbitration money. You are under team control, but your salary isn’t set yet, and you also aren’t subject to the unilateral salary selection of your team in the first few years of your service time. So, if the team decides to keep you for the year ahead (“tendering” a contract), that’s where the arbitration process comes in.

These players have the right to submit a request for a salary, to be countered by the team for a salary, and then duke it out in an arbitration hearing over which number is better. Typically, though, arbitration-eligible players and their teams agree on a contract before all that fighting happens in late January and February. Indeed, most if not all clubs are now “file and trial”: either you come together to agree on a contract for the season ahead, or file your numbers and head to arbitration. That has had the effect of greatly diminishing the number of arbitration hearings.

Here are the arbitration-eligible Cubs for this offseason, what they’re projected by MLBTR to earn in 2020 if they’re ultimately tendered a contract by the Cubs, the arb years, and what they made last year:

  • Kris Bryant – $18.5M (3rd of 4 arbitration years) ($12.9M in 2019)
  • Javier Baez – $9.3M (2nd of 3 arbitration years) ($5.2M in 2019)
  • Kyle Schwarber – $8.0M (2nd of 3 arbitration years) ($3.39M in 2019)
  • Addison Russell – $5.1M (3rd of 4 arbitration years) ($3.7M in 2019)
  • Willson Contreras – $4.5M (1st of 3 arbitration years) (pre-arb in 2019)
  • Albert Almora – $1.8M (1st of 3 arbitration years) (pre-arb in 2019)
  • Kyle Ryan – $1.1M (1st of 4 arbitration years) (pre-arb in 2019)
  • Very significant bumps are projected for the first three guys up there, though I can’t call them outlandish. Bryant’s figure would top Nolan Arenado’s $17.75M mark from his third go through arbitration after being a Super Two, so you could understand why MLBTR has a very similarly-situated player in Bryant just moving the needle up a bit.

    Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

    Kris Bryant may wind up on the trade market this offseason – not “shopped,” but “listened on” – so his arbitration figure is going to be bandied about a whole lot as other teams (and prognosticating fans) discuss how much value there is in having Bryant at $18+ million for 2020, and something in the mid-$20-millions or more in 2021. Me? I say the answer is “loads of value,” but we’ll get there when we get there.

    Javy Baez was projected for over $7 million last year thanks to his breakout, MVP-runner-up campaign, but actually wound up much lower. With another quality year in the books (though not of the same caliber) while starting at shortstop, you can see why Baez lands where he does. If he’d been healthier, the number would have been much higher. In any case, you can expect the Cubs to take a serious run at extending Javy Baez long-term, and using the arbitration negotiations as a starting point.

    The jump for Schwarber is the one that raises a mild eyebrow, though he’s definitely coming off his best offensive season with the Cubs. The glowing defensive ratings in 2018 seem to have been a fluke, and instead he’s more of a meh-to-slightly-below-meh left fielder. But with 38 homers and 92 RBI on the stat sheet, he’s got a lot of ammo to which to point when talking to an arbitrator.

    As for Addison Russell, he was a non-tender candidate regardless of his number, and if he does look to get $5+ million for 2020, it’s hard to justify tendering him that contract. The Cubs may try to trade him before the tender deadline on December 2, but with his domestic violence suspension, terrible performance at the plate, and brief demotion for focus problems? I tend to think it’s solely going to be a tender or non-tender decision.

    Albert Almora, even at a much lower figure and definitely without the non-baseball concerns, is also a theoretical non-tender candidate. That said, it’s such a small amount and there remains so much potential in Almora that I have a hard time seeing the Cubs actually letting him go just yet for nothing. It’s more likely he’s traded than non-tendered.

    As for Willson Contreras and Kyle Ryan, I have no useful comments. Looks about right, and they’ll obviously be tendered.

    written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more cubs news

    Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

    A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

    Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

    It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

    OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

    That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

    Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

    *SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

    The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

    I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

    Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

    ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

    The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

    You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

    Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

    Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

    The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

    Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

    I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

    There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

    Latest News

    Cavaliers vs. 76ers Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

    The Philadelphia 76ers (39-34) are 8-point underdogs against the Cleveland Cavaliers (44-29) at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse on Friday, March 29, 2024. The game starts at 7:30 PM ET on NBCS. The matchup's point total is set at 212.5.Our computer predictions...

    Heat vs. Trail Blazers Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

    The Portland Trail Blazers (19-54) will attempt to end an eight-game losing streak when they visit the Miami Heat (39-33) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at FTX Arena as heavy, 14-point underdogs. The contest airs at 8:00 PM ET on...

    Rockets vs. Jazz Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

    The Utah Jazz (29-44) will try to end a seven-game losing streak when they host the Houston Rockets (37-35) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at Vivint Smart Home Arena as 7.5-point underdogs. The contest airs at 9:30 PM ET on...

    Bulls vs. Nets Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

    The Chicago Bulls (35-38) hit the court against the Brooklyn Nets (28-45) as 5.5-point favorites on Friday, March 29, 2024 at 7:30 PM ET on NBCS. The matchup has an over/under set at 214.5 points.Before you place an informed wager...

    Suns vs. Thunder Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder (50-22) are 2.5-point underdogs against Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns (43-30) Friday, March 29, 2024 at Paycom Center. The matchup begins at 8:00 PM ET on KSBI. The point total is set...

    Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

    The Minnesota Timberwolves (50-22) are 6.5-point underdogs when they host the Denver Nuggets (51-22) in a battle between the top two teams in the Western at Ball Arena on Friday, March 29, 2024 at 9:00 PM ET on ALT. The...

    Knicks vs. Spurs Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

    The New York Knicks (44-28) will try to continue a three-game win streak when they visit the San Antonio Spurs (17-56) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at AT&T Center as big, 10-point favorites. The game airs at 8:00 PM ET...

    Kings vs. Mavericks Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

    The Dallas Mavericks (43-29) will look to Luka Doncic (first in the league scoring 33.9 points per game) when they try to beat De'Aaron Fox (eighth in the NBA with 26.5 PPG) and the Sacramento Kings (42-30) on Friday, March...

    How to Watch Diamondbacks vs. Rockies: Live Stream or on TV

    On Friday, Corbin Carroll and the Arizona Diamondbacks (1-0) take on Nolan Jones and the Colorado Rockies (0-1), with first pitch scheduled for 9:40 PM ET at Chase Field.If you're trying to watch this game, keep reading for streaming and...

    Guardians vs. Athletics: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

    The Cleveland Guardians (1-0), led by Jose Ramirez, visit Brent Rooker and the Oakland Athletics (0-1) on Friday, with first pitch at 9:40 PM ET.Find out how to watch the Cleveland-Oakland matchup below.When is Guardians vs. Athletics and when does...

    more cubs news