Given the way this offseason has played out so far (actual early action everywhere), I don’t think any of us are ready for how nuts the Winter Meetings are going to be next week. It’s easy to forget – after the last couple years of nonsense – just how crazy they used to get in the past, but before the free agent ice outs of 2017 and 2018, the Winter Meetings really were as good as you remember.
And with so many big-time free agents *and* trade candidates still hanging around, I expect it to be fully wild. Specifically, I bet we see one of the big three free agents sign (my money is on Stephen Strasburg) and at least one major trade – in addition, of course, to a lot of other middle-tier stuff, plus the flurry of rumors that accompany the maneuverings.
I can’t wait. The madness usually kicks off on Sunday night. But hey, it’s not like there aren’t things to discuss tonight, too …
Strictly speaking, Ken Rosenthal’s latest at The Athletic is about the Dodgers “finally” being in a position to strike in a really dramatic way this offseason, and, indeed, there’s plenty there to dissect. With a “top-five” farm system, a “deep, stable” roster, and “nearly $30M” to spend before hitting even the first luxury tax threshold, the Dodgers could do just about anything they want – Rosenthal mentions Gerrit Cole, Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, and Josh Donaldson as possibilities.
But if you read between the lines there (and then a little more explicitly later on), you’ll notice something interesting: the Dodgers could be in the market for an impact third baseman this winter (i.e. Rendon or Donaldson, as Justin Turner is a free agent after this season). On its own, I probably wouldn’t read too much into that, but Rosenthal repeatedly makes it point that trading for one of the big-three trade candidates (Kris Bryant, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor), while trickier, is at least as plausible to do given their position. He mentions Bryant a second time elsewhere, and then again as the most likely of the three to be traded this winter.
I’m not saying Rosenthal is saying Kris Bryant to the Dodgers is even an idea out there, but you at least have to notice when he points out the following three things in a single article: (1) the Dodgers could add an impact third baseman, (2) a big trade for a superstar is a distinct possibility, and (3) Kris Bryant is the most likely of those three superstars to be on the move this offseason. So, I’m not sayin’ he’s sayin’, I’m just sayin’ he’s sayin’.
Moving on … Remember this guy:
Lindblom is the American-born pitcher returning from the KBO, who was – briefly – connected to the Cubs in rumors. Well, apparently he has multiple, multi-year offers, although it’s tough to say how much that really means. For example, MLB Trade Rumors projected two years and $8M total back at the outset of the offseason, which isn’t really all that significant (well, perhaps for the Cubs this winter). Then again, it sure feels like his stock has been on the rise since then, so maybe he’ll get much more. People don’t want to miss the next (relief?) version of Miles Mikolas.
Couple specific names:
Bruce Levine has a collection of the Cubs key storylines heading into the Winter Meetings, which serves as a nice refresher/cliff notes on some of the rumors that have passed by this offseason. Starling Marte – whom we’ve discussed in the past – comes in for an up-top mention, as does Whit Merrifield, but there’s nothing really new on either front.
Ender Inciarte is a new name this offseason from Levine, though, and does fit the mold of player for which the Cubs are looking (good center field defense, high-contact, solid baserunner, solid OBP), but he’s coming off an extremely injured season (just 65 games played thanks to lumbar, quad, and hamstring strains), and is generally a below-average overall offensive contributor. His strikeout rate shot up and his defensive ratings took a hit in 2019, too. Maybe it was the injuries and maybe he’s healthy now. But it makes you nervous. In any case, I do think there’s a possibility of a fit here in some role, though his modest salary ($7M in 2020, $8M in 2021, with a $9M option for 2022 ($1M buyout), $6M AAV) doesn’t look so modest if he’s just a bench guy. If more specific rumors pop up, and we can dig in on Inciarte a little more.
Brett got into the Willson Contreras/Astros rumors earlier today, but I just want to point out a couple of general reasons why trading Contreras can be seen as a logical thread to keep pulling – despite the fact that I love him and the Cubs can always just, you know, keep their really good, cost-controlled catcher (novel idea).
- We more or less know he’s at least available.
- The Cubs have immediate (Caratini) and long-term (Amaya) catchers in the system already as *plausible* replacements.
- There are clearly catching-needy teams out there (see next bullet).
- Of the three big catchers moved this offseason (Yasmani Grandal, Travis d’Arnaud, Omar Narvaez), two of them went two teams that were never in play for Contreras, thus removing options, but not suitors.
- And with those three gone, there is no realistic impact alternative to Contreras on the market.
In any case, I just want to mention it. In addition to the Astros, The Athletic mentioned the Angels, Rays, Rockies, Pirates, Reds, and Rangers. Of those teams, I find the Pirates and Reds very unlikely for division reasons and the Rangers unlikely for return reasons. The Astros, Angels, Rays, and Rockies, however, are reasonable guesses.
FiveThirtyEight had an interesting article on where each big free agent would have the biggest impact, and, uh … no one forward this to Milwaukee:
Also, LOL @ the White Sox.
And finally, this isn’t as much a surprise as it is confirmation of something we should’ve all known their position would be: Nationals owner Mark Lerner says his team “can only afford” one of Stephen Strasburg or Anthony Rendon. I remain of the expectation that Strasburg is returning and Rendon is moving on, though the former is being heavily pursued by other big-market teams like the Yankees and Dodgers. Get ready for those rumors to pick up soon …
Brett Taylor contributed to this post.
NEWSLETTER
