Super agent Scott Boras held his annual Winter Meetings scrum today, and although there will be lots of bits – some useful, some just terrible puns and analogies – slipping out over the course of the afternoon, I wanted to quickly hit on the most salient ones for recent Cubs purposes: the possibility of a Kris Bryant extension.
What else is Boras gonna say, right? An extension is still a theoretical possibility from their perspective – the sides are already going to have to discuss Bryant’s 2020 contract (arbitration) at some point anyway:
On Kris Bryant’s future with the Cubs, Scott Boras said he’s “more than willing to discuss anything they’d like right now on a multi-year basis.”
Focus is on 2020 contract, but their “ears are open” to more.
— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) December 10, 2019
Asked several times if the Cubs and Bryant have had serious talks about an extension, Scott Boras sidestepped the question: “We communicate with the Cubs constantly. Our doors are open…and more than willing to discuss anything like that on a long term basis.”
— Jesse Rogers (@ESPNChiCubs) December 10, 2019
There’s little meat there. But it’s an opportunity to remember that the extension side of this equation – with the Cubs, with Bryant, with the future – isn’t to be entirely discarded.
That is not to say I’d put any money on an extension ever getting done.
A key component of the Cubs’ willingness to listen to offers for Bryant is an understanding that an extension beyond 2021 is unlikely to come together on terms agreeable for both sides. The market rate on extensions for guys like Bryant pushes to well over $200 million (Nolan Arenado’s $260 million deal would probably be the target, even as he was a year closer to free agency), and thanks to Bryant’s already substantial earnings in his career, Bryant doesn’t have any incentive to settle for less than a market rate extension.
Projecting that an extension is highly unlikely, then, is not unreasonable, particularly when you factor in the possibility of a trade netting the Cubs sufficient longer-term value to approach Bryant’s value in his 30s (at a much lower price). Then you factor in the Cubs’ presumed desire to extend other players (Javy Baez being among the most obvious and most expensive). Then you factor in the risk that you keep Bryant and ultimately lose him for no more than a third round draft pick in a couple years, and it all kinda coalesces into a situation where, for as much as we as cans might want to see Bryant in a Cubs uniform for the next decade, it isn’t the most likely outcome.
That’s why all this trade rumor stuff is happening.
HOWEVER, Boras’s words are a reminder that, yes, strictly speaking, an extension is still conceivable. I’d always wondered if the service time grievance would provide an opportunity for the sides to seriously try to work out an extension – one that resolves the issue in the process – but it doesn’t seem like that’s happened. Instead, from all outside accounts, it seems the Cubs are more interested for the moment in exploring the trade market. Given the above, that’s understandable.
But again, it’s not as if teams like the Cubs don’t ever extend players like Kris Bryant.
On the Bryant trade rumor side of things, here is the latest (also here).