Whether you want to see Kris Bryant retained by the Cubs no matter what – regardless of trade value or whether an extension is realistic – it is still very important to understand how the market is perceiving Bryant and the Cubs. I am fairly well convinced at this point that the Cubs are seriously considering moving Bryant after his service time grievance is resolved, but *only* if the return is sufficiently overwhelming.
There are versions of a return that I would find, personally, to make for an understandable trade when you consider the Cubs’ apparently inability to push in (financially) for 2020 and 2021, and the Cubs’ need (legitimate, in my view) to add quite a bit of young talent if they want to avoid falling off a competitive cliff post-2021. I wouldn’t go so far as to say I’m someone who wants to see the Cubs trade Kris Bryant. Instead, I’m someone who does want to see the Cubs smooth that future transition, and ideally do so in a way that doesn’t completely take competing in 2020 (much less 2021) off the table. So I’m open to a Bryant trade, but if the Cubs are going to do it right now at this particular moment, then the return better be a doozy.
To that end, and you’ve probably noticed over the past week, I’ve become particularly intrigued by the relative barrage of reports out there from anonymous non-Cubs execs/scouts/pundits/etc. tossing out a range of concerns about Bryant going forward, and appearing to throw considerable cold water on any expected return in a Bryant trade. It all very much has the feel of bogus efforts by interested teams to hold down the price, and I’m suspicious of the intentions.
The latest comes from a Buster Olney write-up at ESPN, which is worth a look for the context:
“Rival evaluators have their concerns, however, starting with his salary. Bryant, who turns 28 next month, is projected to make about $18.5 million through arbitration, according to the website MLBTradeRumors.com, and that will set him up for an award in the range of $25 million to $30 million in 2021. He is represented by Boras, who almost always takes his clients into free agency, so any team that acquires Bryant would view him as an expensive, short-time employee.
And some team analysts who have dug deep into the numbers see some regression in his performance — in his defense at third base, for starters, and in the impact of his baserunning. Among 135 hitters who qualified for the batting title, Bryant ranked 110th in the rate of hard-hit balls.”
Rather than dismiss it all out of hand, this time I figured I’ll take some time to actually address the underlying “concerns” about Bryant as a trade target.
I want to give it a fair look, because it’s not as though there aren’t *some* issues to explore. Maybe we’re all underselling those issues because of an overall sense of affection for a guy who came up with the Cubs and has been so instrumental in the success since 2015. Or maybe it’s all still kinda bogus.
… or, as is usually the case – in life! – the reality is somewhere in the middle.
Overall Offensive Performance
I think if you were going to make some hay here, you’d point to Bryant’s overall performance in 2018-19, versus his performance in the first three years of his career, which included a Rookie of the Year award and an MVP.
From 2015-17, Bryant was an offensive powerhouse:
In each of those seasons Bryant’s wRC+ ranked 8th in the NL, 4th in the NL, and 6th in the NL.
In the last two years, Bryant has still been very good – with a nice bounceback in 2019 – but the overall results haven’t been on par with 2015-17. Here’s 2018-19:
A legit downswing? Some injury-related flukiness? Bad luck?
I think there’s probably a lot of noise and signal going on, but I think it’s worth pointing out that Bryant’s 2019 season (.282/.382/.521, 135 wRC+) was a good bit better than 2018, which is dragging down the numbers a bit (and featured far too much time played with a shoulder injury that was sapping his power).
Bryant’s 135 wRC+ in 2019 was 10th in the NL. In 2018, it was 20th.
Of all the ways to push back against a huge price tag on Bryant, the concerns that he’s trending downward already on the offensive side would probably be the most credible push. Then again, you’re still talking about one of the best bats in the NL, and, heading into his age 28 season, you wouldn’t necessarily bet against him continuing to be a top 10 guy or maybe even popping up a little better.
Contact Data
I mention this one because of the Olney paragraph, but I really don’t see it. Bryant has never been a “hard contact” guy, but that’s because his swing is engineered to produce deep line drives and fly balls – and thanks to his size, strength, and levers, that generally leads not only to huge power, but also a huge BABIP. The dude routinely has a groundball rate some 10 percentage points lower than league average – and only 20 batters had a lower mark than his 35.9% in 2019.
Heck, in Bryant’s 2017 season – arguably better offensively than his 2016 MVP campaign – his 32.8% hard contact rate was not only below his career average, it was only a single percent above league average. Bryant’s success is not predicated on that particular metric. He’s a lot like his teammate, Anthony Rizzo, in that regard. Rizzo has always sported extremely meh hard contact rates, but has always produced exceptional offense. Squaring the ball up with just the right amount of loft is always going to produce better offensive overall than a guy who can eye-pop with exit velocity but isn’t as frequently squaring it up or keeping it in the ideal launch zone.
On the whole, the contact data ain’t gonna be a great angle if you’re looking to poo-poo Bryant’s performance or projections. This is the style of hitter he has always been, and it works quite well.
Defense
This one should catch some traction, because Bryant’s advanced metrics have absolutely taken a hit at third base the last few years, going from decently above-average in his first two seasons, and sliding down to solidly-below-average the last two years. Given Bryant’s size and the questions about his long-term prospects at third base from when he was a prospect, it’s not surprising – or unreasonable – that a statistical drop right now would cause teams pause.
The flip side of that, though, is that Bryant is able to play the corner outfield spots acceptably – which is a value add on the defensive side – and has the potential to be a very solid corner outfield defender if he were moved there. At third base, while he rated very poorly in 2018, his UZR/150 bounced back in a pretty significant way in 2019.
Also, I think you have to keep things in perspective a bit: despite the “down” numbers on defense, Bryant still posted a 4.8 WAR, making him the 11th most valuable player in the NL in 2019, tied with huge bats like Juan Soto and Pete Alonso. The ability to play decent, even if not great, defense at third base makes you a whole lot more valuable than if you’re just a bat.
Is defense a big selling point, in a Bryant trade? No. Is it a huge ding to his trade value, however? Eh. I don’t see it.
Baserunning
There was a time in his early days that Kris Bryant was (rightly) regarded as one of the best non-base-stealing baserunners in the game. Just watch him score from first base on Anthony Rizzo’s hit in Game 7 of the World Series if you forget what a freaking gazelle he was out there. He was the embodiment of the idea that a guy could be an extremely valuable baserunner without stealing a lot of bases.
Anecdotally, it feels like maybe that baserunning ability has faded. Your brain says you see Bryant getting thrown out on balls to the left side that maybe he didn’t used to, and there have been double play grounders that he used to beat out every single time – he grounded in a career-high 10 double plays in 2019.
But then again, while Bryant might not be an elite baserunner anymore, his 3.8 BsR on FanGraphs was still 22nd best in all of baseball last year, ahead of guys like Adam Eaton, Starling Marte, and Jason Heyward. He was way down in his injury-abbreviated 2018 season, but I’m not sure there’s actual signal there, especially given that he was right back up there in 2019. Instead, there’s reason to believe Bryant will continue to be a baserunner in the range he’s been for most of his career: very, very good.
Moreover, when you look at the leaderboard, sure, you see the obvious “speed” guys up there, but, in the top 50, you also see a ton of established veterans who are simply good at baserunning with only a modicum of speed. It’s a skill that can age well, even as speed fades.
… and since we’re talking about Bryant’s age 28 and 29 seasons under team control here, I’m really not sure this is a great ding to Bryant’s value either.
Injuries
Strangely, this is almost never discussed as an issue, so I added it myself. I guess it doesn’t come up because Bryant didn’t miss much time in 2019, hasn’t needed surgery, and injuries are a part of the game. But if I’m a trade partner wanting some leverage, I’m pointing to back-to-back seasons of injury issues (shoulder, then knee) that linger long enough and were pronounced enough to become cited as “reasons” for down performance.
Neither issue is expected to have an impact on Bryant in 2020 and beyond in any kind of specific way, but it’s just kinda odd that it doesn’t even really come up in these conversations. Speaking as a Cubs fan, I do worry at least a little bit about how those injuries impacted Bryant’s performance and limited his upside in 2018 and 2019. Hard to see how trade partners wouldn’t feel the same.
Contract Considerations
I saved this one for last, because it is, to me, the most bogus concern out there. I’m not talking about the service time grievance, mind you – that’ll be resolved one way or another before any trade would proceed, so it is kind of a whole separate consideration. Plus, virtually everyone, including the Cubs, is proceeding on the assumption that Bryant will ultimately lose, and still be subject to two more years of arbitration before free agency.
Thus, instead, I’m talking about the finger-wagging you see about “oh, but he’s still pretty pricey!”
Bryant’s $18+ million projection in arbitration in 2019 is a lot of money compared to other arb-year players, sure. But it’s also barely half what a guy like Anthony Rendon is getting in free agency, and his deal came with seven guaranteed years. I mean, *Mike Moustakas* just got four guaranteed years at $16 million. Josh Donaldson might require $25 million annually for three or four years. Do not start talking to me about how $18 million in 2019 is some outrageous or damaging sum for Bryant. Absurd.
Moreover, the fact that Bryant is in arbitration is a big factor here. The ability to acquire a top-tier impact player for two arbitration years, with a required outlay under $20 million, is a huge plus, not a minus. Oh no, he might make $25 million in 2021! Seriously? That’s a one-year bargain-rate contract! And you aren’t even committing to it today! It’s an *option* thanks to the arbitration system. If, God forbid, Bryant suffered a catastrophic injury in 2020, the team with his rights doesn’t have to pay him anything in 2021. Free agents signed to monster contracts don’t come with the luxury of being able to non-tender them.
You don’t acquire a guy like Bryant for a big price tag ever thinking about non-tendering him after one season, but the flexibility preserved to be able to do so? That has actual value. Why do you think teams want as short of deals as possible for free agents? Why do you think teams want extensions for pre-arb and arb players to always end in team option years?
In sum, the contract considerations here – if they’re being offered up as a reason Bryant’s price tag should come way down – are completely bogus and should be dismissed completely as pure negotiations in the media.
Whether Bryant’s offense might be trending down a bit, whether there are nagging injury considerations, and whether his defense hurts his value a little bit? Yeah, I think those are fair discussion points, even if all have pretty easy counters from the Cubs.
On the whole, through this exercise, I’m not seeing a lot that should push the Cubs to move off of their “absurd” asking price for Bryant if they’re going to move him right now. Whatever team Bryant is on in 2020 – including the Cubs – will be improved tremendously by his presence, and, at age 28, there’s no reason not to keep “upside” on the table of considerations, too.