NEWSLETTER
There were a couple of big rumor updates today, in case you missed them.
First, we learned that perfect free agent fit – positionally, offensively, and, yes, even financially (… or so we thought) – Shogo Akiyama is apparently now leaning away from the Chicago Cubs and towards the Cincinnati Reds, because the world is a cold, confusing place.
Indeed, before we go further, let me update you with the latest since then:
Reds are in talks for CF Shogo Akiyama, previously of Seibu. Thought to have decent chance. @nikkansports was on it
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 26, 2019
COOL.
And second, the Cubs *MAY* have exchanged some very specific (and frankly, realistic) names with the Atlanta Braves in discussions regarding a trade for Kris Bryant. Neither update is particularly warming, but it was 60 degrees outside in Chicago today, and we’re not allowed to have more than one nice thing at a time.
Here’s the rest …
Starter Trade Market
The vast majority of the sure-fire free agent starting pitchers have already found their new homes this offseason, leaving several expectedly competitive, but pitching-needy teams (Angels, Dodgers, Brewers, Twins, Padres, more) without a prize.
With that in mind, MLB.com takes a look at six of the trade candidates who could be in play:
Jose Quintana was not one of the arms mentioned by Mark Feinsand, but his name did pop up on the trade market recently and it wasn’t exactly a surprise, given the Cubs’ “need” to move salary. But when you look at that list … that competition is tough if the Cubs were looking to move Quintana. At 30, Quintana, is relatively young, but he’s older than four pitchers on that list (Clevinger, Ray, Boyd, Gray). Quintana is cheap ($11.5M), but he’s going to cost more next season than five out of six (Clevinger, Ray, Boyd, Archer, Gray). Quintana is a lefty, but there are three other available southpaws (Price, Ray, Boyd).
You could argue Quintana has the lowest ceiling among the group, and maybe also one of the lowest floors. If I were a team searching for a starter on the trade market at present, I’d offer the Cubs only a little more than salary relief. Which … hey, who knows. Maybe that’s all the Cubs want.
Brett: Yeah, you could make the argument about Quintana’s ceiling and floor, but Quintana is coming off a 3.5-win season, and has a long track record of high-level success. I think he’s a good bet to have a better 2020 than Price, Ray, Boyd, and Archer. Those guys have higher ceilings in 2020? Yeah, I could buy that. But it’s not like there isn’t plenty of risk in them, too, given Price’s injuries, Ray’s and Boyd’s lack of establishing themselves in the results department, and Archer’s recent stretch of awfulness. Moreover, I don’t really see younger multi-year guys like Clevinger or Boyd or Gray really being the competition for Quintana, who would specifically be of interest to teams that just want a steady one-year guy with an affordable contract (relative to the free agent price tags for guys like him.
Relatedly: Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto are expected to stay put on the Giants for now, but that could change around mid-season.
The White Sox Are STILL Not Done?
The White Sox didn’t even take Christmas off this year, adding Edwin Encarnacion to a one-year, $12M deal yesterday, after already adding Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel, and Nomar Mazara earlier this offseason.
But they’re not done yet:
According to sources, the White Sox remain engaged with the RF market despite this month's trade for Nomar Mazara. Yasiel Puig appears to be a primary target.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) December 26, 2019
When the Sox added Encarnacion to a roster that already had Mazara, Jose Abreu, and Eloy Jimenez (and just one DH spot), we assumed they were almost certainly out on Nick Castellanos. But if they’re still engaged in the free agent right field market (Puig), I guess they’re … not? I have to imagine there’d be another trade set up for this to make any sense at all, particularly for Puig, who’s got a great arm, but isn’t exactly known for his outfield defense. Who knows. The White Sox have been weird but aggressive this offseason. At least it’s entertaining.
Nick Castellanos to … the Giants?
Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports some mutual interest between Nick Castellanos and the Giants this offseason, but doesn’t “get the sense the Giants are ready” to give him the sort of four or five-year deal he’ll require. The Giants, according to Pavlovic, are still a player, but “their status as the frontrunner is overblown” (when exactly were they made out to be the frontrunner?).
Related: The Cardinals may have enough outfielders to put together some sort of platoon “committee,” as Derrick Goold puts it, but they could still be searching to add something of an everyday “certainty,” before the end of the offseason. Whether that includes free agents Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, and Corey Dickerson (or trade candidate Joc Pederson) is an open question, but each has been connected to St. Louis at one point or another this winter.
Other Random Bits:
(1) Did the Cubs really need to role the dice on a guy like Matt Moore given the way things have gone for him over the past few seasons? No. Of course not. Would it have taken even less than this to keep him in the States? Maybe. Do I have any confidence the Cubs could make that deal even if they wanted to? Nope.
Matt Moore with SoftBank Hawks: 3.5M. Can make up to 6M.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 26, 2019
(2) According to the Washington Post, the Nationals had some interest in first baseman Justin Smoak before he signed with the Brewers last week, but obviously they missed out. They’re looking for a left-handed (or switch-hitting) bat, but presumably they’d still be happy to fill that void in their lineup with someone like Josh Donaldson and/or Kris Bryant.
(3) In this MLBTR write-up about the White Sox possibly engaging top prospect Luis Robert in extension talks before he’s called up, it is both hilarious and appropriate that the ripple effects of the Kris Bryant service time grievance even reach that far: “Without an extension in place, the White Sox could keep Robert in the minors for at least the first few weeks of the season, or at least long enough to ensure that they’ll get a seventh year of control over his services. This would be the latest instance of a team manipulating a top prospect’s service time, and this entire practice has been put under the microscope this offseason now that Kris Bryant’s service time grievance is currently being examined by an arbitrator. While the arbitrator is widely expected to rule in the Cubs’ favor, a decision reducing Bryant’s remaining team control from two years to one would send many shockwaves around the baseball world, and impact how every club handles promoting its best minor leaguers in the future. As such, the White Sox might wait until the arbitrator’s ruling before fully diving into extension negotiations with Robert.”
Everyone is waiting on that decision.
Brett Taylor contributed to this post.
