Lukewarm Stove: Akiyama Getting Three Years? Dickerson Signing Hurting Castellanos Market? More

Like Michael noted earlier in the week, this is a weird time in the transaction calendar, typically speaking. Things get really quiet around Christmas, and there also usually isn’t a lot going on for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. You do see movement between the holidays, and then trade rumors frequently pick up in early January (before arbitration figures are exchanged mid-month).

With the holidays both landing on a Wednesday this year, however – and thus a weekend falling in between – I’m not sure we will see a whole lot of activity until late next week and beyond. Might just have seen a lot of folks checking out until after the New Year. We’ll see, I guess.

But there are nevertheless a few things to note for you this Saturday afternoon …

  • Are you the hopeful type? Well, then you can hold out a glimmer of hope that Jon Heyman is saying the Cubs are still in it for Shogo Akiyama:
  • More likely? The Cubs were known to have interest in the past – which they did – but the Reds are the favorite, and the Cubs are on the outside thanks to self-imposed spending limitations at the moment. That’s especially true if he’s got three-year offers from the Reds and/or Padres:
  • Speaking of Japanese players coming to the United States, while it’s working out for Akiyama, it didn’t work out for defensive wizard Ryosuke Kikuchi:
  • As it seemed when he was first posted, although Kikuchi clearly had a big-league-caliber glove at second base, the bat was well below average even in NPB. That meant, at best, he was going to be viewed as a glove-only bench guy in MLB, and the market for those types is nearly non-existent, especially on a guaranteed contract (with a posting fee).
  • The Marlins continue to moderately useful short-term pieces this offseason (which, hey, kudos to them):
  • Dickerson, 30, can still hit – .304/.341/.565, 127 wRC+ last year – but his defense usually rates as something between below average and awful, though he had an unusual spike to extraordinary in 2018. I’m thinking perhaps that was a fluke, and his contract reflects those defensive limitations:
  • To be sure, Nick Castellanos is almost three years younger than Dickerson, and bats righty without a big platoon split, AND Dickerson dealt with injuries last year. HOWEVA, you do have to wonder if the market will just not be that kind of Castellanos when you compare the two defensively-limited corner outfield bats. For their careers:
  • (via FanGraphs)

  • Even if you look only at the last four years, when Castellanos became a plus offensive player, the difference isn’t extreme:
  • (via FanGraphs)

  • Should Castellanos get a lot more than Dickerson? Absolutely. But can he get four+ years at $18+ million per year in a market that gives Dickerson just two years at $8.75 million per year? It’s really hard to see. For what it’s worth, Steamer projects Castellanos to be worth just 1.5 WAR next year, while Dickerson is at 1.4 WAR. The system sees huge downside in the bats for both guys (relative to the last few years), and disasters in the field. So if you’re buying Castellanos at a healthy rate and more than three years, you’re betting on the upside that you saw in the second half of 2019. (Me? I actually do like that bet.)
  • Check out MLBTR’s remaining needs for the NL Central teams if you want a macabre laugh about how the Cubs’ offseason is being viewed by third parties.
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

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