NEWSLETTER
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Shogo, Reds go. Here’s hoping he’s not a perfectly solid player after all?
The Cubs’ self-imposed financial restrictions seem to have come back to bite them in their active pursuit of could-be-perfect-fit outfielder, Shogo Akiyama. Multiple outlets in Japan are saying he’s chosen the Reds, and my guess is that he was just done waiting on the Cubs:
The Reds reach agreement with Shogo Akiyama, 3 years, more than 15M, according to Nikkan Sports https://t.co/zaoSYxBrRd
— Kazuto Yamazaki (@Kazuto_Yamazaki) December 30, 2019
To be sure, it is entirely possible that the Cubs had simple evaluated Shogo’s worth at closer to the two years and $10 million he’d reportedly been seeking, and a third year was what it took for the Reds to land him. Regardless of whether there are financial restrictions, you draw lines and you hold to them.
Still, if the Cubs were absolutely aiming to max out the team in 2020 *despite* the limitations, it’s pretty hard to imagine them passing on a guy like Akiyama, who comes at a mere $5 million AAV (give or take, depending on the final deal). Given that he gives you a *chance* at a great leadoff hitter and a solution in center field, isn’t that worth the risk that you’ll have to unload a contract later on for less than you hoped?
Well, maybe not. The Cubs are currently projected, after arbitration raises, to be slightly over the luxury tax as it is, so maybe a $5 million risk was simply not one they could take right now if they were going to stick to The 2020 Plan. Baseball gods forbid they add Akiyama, underperform in 2020 anyway, and then also don’t get under the luxury tax – failing to reset penalties (and, more importantly, failing to trade pieces for long-term value) – and then being unable to be over the luxury tax in 2021 and having to go through even WORSE cost-cutting next year (like, total rebuild-type-cutting).
So, I guess I understand that there was risk in adding Akiyama, even on this deal. Mostly, I’m just ticked that the Cubs weren’t able to make moves a long time ago to free up the ability to seriously pursue Akiyama, who again, could have given them a *chance* to be really competitive in 2020 *despite* cutting salary. Shouldn’t that be the absolute goal if you’re dead set on the cutting salary part? Give yourself a chance in the first half and recalibrate in July?
Forgive me for talking through some of my admittedly contradictory thoughts here. I just liked the fit, and now he’s headed to a division rival instead.
So we’ll see what Akiyama does for a Reds club that is pushing very hard for 2020-21. And with Akiyama in the fold, it is now all the more plausible that they could REALLY push, and trade Nick Senzel to the Indians in a deal for Francisco Lindor.
UPDATE: The stateside reports not only are not confirming the Japanese reports, they are directly contradicting them:
Bidding for Shogo Akiyama has reached 20M plus for 3 years. Reds appear in front and working hard.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 30, 2019
Re: Akiyama … source tells me that there is not an agreement yet with the #reds but they remain very much in the mix. And also heard the bidding to sign Akiyama is higher than three years and $15 million by a “decent margin.”
— Mark Sheldon (@m_sheldon) December 30, 2019
In these situations, it tends to be the case that the team doesn’t change, but it looks like the contract details might be considerably different. Stay tuned.
UPDATE 2: There’s your stateside confirmation as to the team, as expected:
#Reds in agreement with CF Shogo Akiyama. @JonHeyman 1st. Hear it is going to be a 3-yr contract.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 30, 2019
