Mildly Positive Thoughts About the Cubs Rotation, Maddon’s Ex-Post, and Other Cubs Bullets

Dec 31, 2019

The end of the month, the end of the year, the end of the decade. All were mostly good on personal and professional levels for me – mixed bag for the Cubs, eh? – and I’ve gotta get into some of that later today.

The nature of any offseason is such that you latch onto certain story lines as the primary focus, until those stories are resolved. Now, the story can have several layers – as it does for the Cubs this offseason – but the focus stays right there in the front: trading away pieces for good long-term returns and moving out payroll. That’s pretty clearly been the story for the Cubs so far this offseason, even as they’ve failed to actually do any of it.

But once that story line plays itself out, we’re going to be in a much better position to look at what the 2020 season can and might be. It’s so hard to think about what the Cubs will do – competitively, I mean – without knowing who is going to be gone, who’s coming back in return, and what will be available for signing. For example, I find myself this morning wanting to remind folks that I’m really nervous about the rotation … but how can I say that when (1) we don’t know just how deeply the Cubs are going to punt on 2020 (in which case, it might be that the whole back half of the rotation is about rolling the dice and observing development); (2) we don’t know if Jose Quintana will be around; (3) we don’t know if any young starters will be acquired in trades; and (4) we don’t know who fill out the back of the rotation in any of those scenarios, because we don’t know who else might be signed to compete.

All that said, in a world where the Cubs *are* still somewhat aggressively trying to compete in 2020, and where the rotation returns intact with, like, Tyler Chatwood or Alec Mills taking that 5th starter spot, I do want to note one mild bit of positivity. Although I get nervous about the ages and injury histories of the pitchers in the rotation – two things that conspire together to create enormous downside risk – I should point out that Cubs starters were, overall, pretty solid last year: their ERA- was 5% better than league average, and their FIP- was actually 9% better than league average (4th best in the NL).

One stray question I have, against that performance, is whether the Cubs could resume being FIP-beaters next year by managing contact better and with improved defense? Or maybe just normal regression? Prior to 2019, the Cubs’ starters were FIP-beaters in each of the previous three seasons – massively so in 2016 and 2018. Even in 2015 (the arrival of Jon Lester and full-season arrival of Kyle Hendricks), the Cubs were basically flat in FIP and ERA. That is to say, 2019 was something of an outlier year for the Cubs’ starting pitchers to see results that didn’t line up with, or weren’t considerably better than, the results that would have been imputed by strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed (the FIP factors).

Jose Quintana, as we’ve explored, actually looks to have been extremely unlucky in the results department last year, and he was BY FAR the biggest non-FIP-beater in the rotation. Positive regression for Quintana, alone, would actually make a pretty big difference in the results department for the Cubs’ rotation. Also, Cole Hamels actually had a *higher* FIP- (92) than the rest of the starters combined (91), so it’s not like it was his presence pulling that number down.

Jon Lester was the other non-FIP-beater in the rotation, by the way (i.e., his ERA was higher than his FIP, which is sometimes an indicator of bad luck, but can also just be an indicator of loads of hard contact that didn’t turn into home runs, but did do a lot of damage). Weird fun fact about Lester? He has alternated between being a FIP-beater and a non-FIP-beater for each of the last seven years. So that means he’s a lock to beat his FIP next year! Hooray!

Although he’s off to Anaheim to lead the Angels, Joe Maddon told The Score yesterday that he’ll still keep in touch with his former Cubs players who want to talk:

Joe Maddon says he has an open line of communication with his former #Cubs players and should they need any advice moving forward, he's happy to talk and help from afar. He still regularly texts a handful of his former players.
— 670 The Score (@670TheScore) December 30, 2019

A lot of players had really special relationships with Maddon, so I hope they do keep it up. Heck, I hope new manager David Ross keeps an open like to Maddon for thoughts on the many, many adjustments he’s going to be going through.

The image of the decade (not just Cubs, not just baseball, not just sports):

View this post on Instagram

So many choices for the image of the decade – indeed, so many from this very event – but this is the one I picture in my head when I think of the moment it finally happened. #Cubs How bad could the decade have been when this is a thing we got to see:

A post shared by Bleacher Nation (@bleachernation) on Dec 31, 2019 at 6:41am PST

More tech looks at the folks who’ve joined the Cubs:

Here's @elite_baseball talking about how he uses the RibeeVR system to improve swing decisions, strike zone awareness, situational hitting execution, and more. pic.twitter.com/ejHEcWw4Yu
— Monsterful (@GoMonsterful) December 30, 2019

@TravisFitta, former facility instructor and college coach @Ohio_Baseball, talks about hitting tech in his new player development role with @Cubs.
#PitchRecognition @GameSenseSports https://t.co/tkq4sVgcjD
— Peter Fadde (@DrFadde) December 30, 2019

A beautiful look back:

Rare Color-Pre-game, 1938 World Series @cubs @Yankees Please check out hundreds of other @flagstafffilms vintage baseball clips by clicking the "Media" link on our profile page. Enjoy, @flagstafffilms pic.twitter.com/OzJxSf4BJe
— Flagstaff Films (@flagstafffilms) December 30, 2019

Umpire drills:

This is what every baseball fans needs to see today https://t.co/bvIKjTUKQB

— Yahoo Sports MLB (@MLByahoosports) December 29, 2019

Joe Maddon’s restaurant lasted only seven months in Wrigleyville:

Maddon’s Post, the restaurant that neighbors Wrigley Field and named from the Cubs former manager, has closed https://t.co/Cd6WVfoztA

— Eater Chicago (@eaterchicago) December 30, 2019

Regardless of Maddon’s departure, this isn’t a surprise if you stopped by – the restaurant was always going to struggle, in my view, thanks to the location, the eclectic mix of food (not in a good way), and being too upscale for the area. It just sort of didn’t make sense other than the fact that it was Maddon’s idea for a restaurant, and he was a hero. Even if he’d stuck around, my sense it that it just wasn’t going to make it. So now that space on the back side (Waveland) of the office building will be available. Not sure another restaurant will necessarily fare better, but maybe it can be used for studio space for Marquee and 670 The Score, as suggested by Jon Greenberg.

written by

Brett Taylor

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

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