It’s a big procedural week in the offseason calendar, with arbitration figures due by players and teams on Friday. And, in the current era, that means lots and lots of deals are going to be completed this week to avoid arbitration.
Here’s what this week’s process of exchanging figures is about: controlled players who qualify for salary arbitration (more than three years of service time, and the top 22% of players with at least two years service time) submit their requested salary for 2020, while teams counter with their own proposed salary for the player in 2020. If the sides do not agree to a contract, then those two figures are taken to an arbitrator next month, and that arbitrator picks one of the two figures. Boom, that’s your salary for 2020.
The date for exchanging these figures between players and teams is this Friday, January 10. Historically, lots of arbitration-eligible players agree to a contract this week with their team, avoiding the arbitration process entirely. Also historically, you often saw deals hammered out after the exchange of figures, but before the arbitration was set to proceed.
But the last few years – since the new CBA, in fact – more and more teams have gone to a “file and trial” approach, which means that if no compromise deal is reached by the time figures are exchanged, that’s it. There’s no more negotiation, and the team takes the player to arbitration using those two submitted figures. It’s a method designed not just to force the player’s hand in negotiations (though, let’s be adults, that’s a big part of it), but also to generate cost-certainty for the team much earlier in the offseason.
As near as we can tell, every team in MLB – including the Cubs – is now a file-and-trial team.
So, here are the players (together with estimated arbitration price tags via MLBTR, arb years, and what they made last year) who’ll be agreeing to deals with the Cubs this week, or will be exchanging salary figures on Friday:
Last year, the Cubs did all of their contract work on the actual Friday of salary exchanges, so you may not see movement until the end of this week. The Cubs are very likely aching to get under the luxury tax in 2020, so these could be tight negotiations.
The caveat there? It’s possible the Cubs will try to work out longer-term deals as part of this week’s negotiation process. There have theoretically long been talks with Javy Baez on a deal, so maybe we finally see something?
And, of course, there’s the ongoing Kris Bryant service time grievance, which could be decided any day. I can’t help but wonder, since the Cubs and Bryant will be forced to be at the table this week anyway to talk about his 2020 arbitration price, if the arbitrator in the service time grievance will wait on his decision a little longer to encourage the sides one last time to try to settle amicably on a two-year deal. I tend to think that’s a very unlikely outcome, because the Players Association would love a chance for Bryant to win this grievance, fundamentally changing the service time system just in time for CBA negotiations. Moreover, Bryant likely isn’t hard up for the extra cash associated with a two-year settlement (nor is his agent, Scott Boras), and the Cubs may not be inclined to settle either, believing they are very likely to win the grievance.
As for other possible extension talks, even if an extension doesn’t happen this week, it can still come later. Last year, the Cubs avoided arbitration with Kyle Hendricks during this week, and then later inked him to an extension in Spring Training.
So, stay tuned. It’s a busy internal week for the Cubs and other teams around baseball. No word on whether the Cubs will, you know, do anything externally this week, though …