Cubs Still Have Talent, Early Lineup Thoughts, Dodgers Hilariously Stacked, Nico Ripped, and Other Bullets

February 13, 2020, by Brett Taylor Chicago Cubs

The Astros stuff this morning, plus the Nolan Arenado report, really got me set back on the Bullets. And there’s so much stuff this time of year, so I gotta rollllll …

The Dodgers have added Mookie Betts and David Price to a roster that was already loaded, and I have been thinking about just how absurdly stacked that team is. How can I share it? I think perhaps the best way to express just how good they are on paper is to share the chart of simulated wins that creates the PECOTA win-loss projection we discussed earlier this week. To be sure, PECOTA doesn’t actually just spit out a record – it simulates thousands of games to generate a range of records for a team, and then the mean projection is the one you see out there. So, for example, this is what the projections look like right now for the NL Central:

As you can see, the Reds average a slightly higher win total than the Cubs, when you look at the distribution of possible outcomes, it’s actually nearly neck-and-neck. You can see also, for example, that the Brewers have a wide range of outcomes, but for them, the projection that they finish under .500 is a particularly strong area for them, hence the peak. Most divisions basically look like this, with overlapping hills, peaking at various spots, giving you a general idea of which teams are better, worse, similar, etc.

So, then, circling back to the Dodgers and the NL West. If I may … LOL:

Basically, per PECOTA, the Dodgers have to fall into one of their EXTREMELY UNLIKELY scenarios and one other team has to climb into one of their own EXTREMELY UNLIKELY scenarios for this to even be a race at all.
Cubs players see the talent still in the room:

#Cubs say they're better than many seem to think as spring training opens, despite lack of moves, and maybe a little hungrier this year: ‘We definitely have a chip on our shoulder’ https://t.co/WE4al5ONP0 via @SunTimes

— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubCub) February 12, 2020

… but they also know how down 2019 was:

"We're a confident group, but I think we're also a very humbled group right now."

Rizzo, Schwarber on the Cubs' quiet winter, the core staying intact and focusing on 2020 as an uncertain future looms for some in the clubhouse: https://t.co/pc1yN25Di1 via @MLB

— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) February 12, 2020

No decisions yet on the lineup, though of course Anthony Rizzo remains a possibility to lead off, given his success there and the lack of an obvious alternative. Just please don’t waste those PAs on a guy who “seems” more like a leadoff “type” than Rizzo, simply because Rizzo “seems” more like a middle-of-the-order “type.” Just get the best guys the most PAs in the spots where they do well. Period. End of lineup discussion.
Apropos of the conversations this week about how things operated under Joe Maddon (and worked very well for a few years before losing steam), you should expect Spring Training to have a more traditional, organized feel under David Ross and bench coach Andy Green:

David Ross Looking to Increase Structure, Intensity This Spring https://t.co/apUdjb34N5 #Cubs Insider

— Cubs Insider (@realcubsinsider) February 12, 2020

Nico Hoerner is in camp looking JACKED:

Top prospect Nico Hoerner, who will be competing for the second base job this spring. Also possible, especially with Jason Kipnis joining fold, that Hoerner opens at AAA for more development and joins Cubs later in summer. Worth reminding: He has only 375 career PAs in Minors. pic.twitter.com/PKmKYG3ZDc

— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) February 13, 2020

Fun with Cubs prospects:

i’ll probably play with @BrennenDavis__ and make sure he protects his hands. https://t.co/1qFMTfF6ZX

— Kohl Franklin (@kohlrf) February 13, 2020

Good Deals of the Day today at Amazon on weighted blankets, coffee makers, groomers, and more. #ad
Trevor Bauer has beef:

https://twitter.com/Watch_Momentum/status/1227336077767331845

Very cool moment:

Pretty hard to quantify or express just how incredible it is to see this. I hope every little girl currently playing baseball or softball sees, and knows she can keep going and there IS room for her in the game, in some role or another. Because there is!!!

Good.

More, please. https://t.co/dbkqAImcQ2

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) February 12, 2020