NEWSLETTER
Minor league camp is now completely in full swing at the Mesa backfields, with Spring Training games beginning soon. The Cubs player development staff will use this month to decide on the rosters for their four full-season minor league teams.
Filling these rosters is a puzzle with loads of pieces that don’t necessarily fit. First, the team must decide on the proper assignment for their top prospects. Then, the best upper level teams to set up the Major League team with proper depth. And then it’s about finding the best guys to fill in around the edges.
Today I want to tackle the first of those decisions, which is examining the prospects that are on the bubble between two levels.
Where’s Brailyn Go?
The largest decision in camp, in my opinion, is whether flame-throwing southpaw Brailyn Marquez takes his talents to Double-A Tennessee or returns to High-A Myrtle Beach. Marquez finished the 2019 season with a five-start cup of coffee with the Pelicans, showing dominance (1.71 ERA) but a strikeout rate (24.5%) that was below his Low-A number.
The conservative approach would be to let Marquez begin in the Carolina League, with a planned midseason promotion to Double-A when he locks in. However, I don’t see any reason to think Marquez needs some developmental checkmark to be ready for Double-A, and I want the lefty to begin a more steep progression to the Major Leagues. You only have so many bullets. I’m hoping he’s in Tennessee, and I’m hoping the Cubs are open to the idea of making a big league bullpen spot available for Marquez if they’re in the thick of things this September.
Can Bonus Babies Luis Verdugo and Richard Gallardo Make It To Full-Season Ball?
The big surprise for me in this week’s Cubs-Angels game was not that Anthony Rizzo is a big Selena Gomez fan, but that Luis Verdugo earned a nod to play in the big league game. And not only that, but he handled himself very well, with a walk, single and sacrifice fly. All in front of The Decisionmaker:
Luis Verdugo — 19-year-old who hasn't played above Rookie ball — made his Spring Training debut today. 1-for-1, 1 RBI, 2 runs, BB.
Here was his single, which Theo Epstein was pretty excited about. pic.twitter.com/68wStfGfAu
— Matt Clapp (@TheBlogfines) March 2, 2020
Verdugo, 19, played his second consecutive season in the AZL last summer, breaking out in August with a big time power showing. I ranked him 19th in my recent prospect rankings, and I think the Cubs face the same decision with him and 14th-ranked pitching prospect Richard Gallardo: are they ready for the Midwest League?
There are three options on the table. The first is to start either (or both) in South Bend right away. The second is to keep them in Arizona for the cold month of April, and assign them to South Bend when the weather warms up. This has been a tactic they’ve used in the past, including with Brennen Davis (although his South Bend assignment was in part due to a rash of injuries that team had suffered). Or third, they could keep the player in Extended Spring Training for an extra ten weeks, and assign them to short-season Eugene.
Verdugo and Gallardo are two players the Cubs hope blossom into top-five organizational prospects some day. Nailing their development schedule is essential.
Which 2019 College Pitcher Jumps Low-A? And In What Role?
In each of the last three seasons, the Cubs have allowed a highly drafted college pitcher to skip South Bend and begin their year in Myrtle Beach. It was Thomas Hatch in 2017, Alex Lange in 2018, and Paul Richan last year. Will the trend continue, and which of their many college pitchers selected in the 2019 draft will earn the nod?
I’ve tended to think Ryan Jensen, the highest drafted of the group, will be given a more cautious assignment. Jensen is a little more raw than the traditional college pitcher, and so trying to give him some early success seems prudent to me. If he’s pitching in relief, I think third-round pick Michael McAvene is clearly ready for the Carolina League. But there’s been some indication the Cubs might try McAvene in the rotation, and given that large transition, slower might be better.
If there must be a choice, I’d say Chris Clarke might be the best choice. Clarke has the best combination of stuff, pedigree and command of the group, and excelled in Eugene last year. I’m just not sure the Midwest League would pose much of a threat, particularly when hitters are also dealing with near-freezing April temps.
Did Alfonso Rivas Prove He Can Handle Triple-A?
Acquired this winter for Tony Kemp, Rivas walked into the Cubs organization and immediately became its best first base prospect. A polished, intelligent player on both sides of the ball, Rivas turned heads when he jumped from High-A to Triple-A for two weeks at the end of the season in the A’s organization last year. In eight regular season games in the PCL, Rivas hit .406/.441/.625, and then went to the Arizona Fall League and kept on hitting against advanced pitching.
The Cubs never really did sign a first baseman to play in Iowa this offseason, with Corban Joseph perhaps the closest thing to it. That could allow Rivas to slide in and skip Double-A, where he wouldn’t have to bother job-sharing the position with Jared Young. But perhaps the Cubs want to begin the year with a few more veterans in Iowa, and they should feel confident that Joseph, Josh Phegley, Robel Garcia, and more can hold the position down just fine. There is no job that Rivas is ultimately rushing to win at the Major League level, so perhaps in his case, allowing a slower climb might just be appropriate.
Some Quick Hits
With minor league camp underway, we’ll slowly start to get a sense for these things. It’ll be fun.
