NEWSLETTER
Congress will soon finalize another relief package related to the COVID-19 pandemic, not only providing significantly more funds for small business loans (critical), but also providing upwards of $25 billion for testing. It remains to be seen how effectively those funds will be deployed and how rapidly mass testing can scale up – it seems to have plateaued in recent weeks, far, far below the testing levels we need to see before sporting events could resume.
Even yesterday’s national testing level – about 150,000 tests, per CovidTracking.com – was no higher than test levels we were seeing as far back as two weeks ago. I understand there are significant challenges in ramping up further (the chemicals needed to perform the tests are in short supply), but if anyone really wants to talk seriously about a safe reopening of things, including sports? That figure literally needs to be ten times higher.
Opening States to Sports and the Need(?) for Fan-Free Games
No surprise, but the Governor of California – ultimately one of the most important voices in the reopening of the economy – does not see sports involving fan attendance this summer as even close to realistic:
California Governor @GavinNewsom is warning residents that a return to normal life won't be happening any time soon.
Only on @CBSThisMorning, Gov. Newsom tells @TonyDokoupil more patience is needed. pic.twitter.com/nzWPR1uk0F— CBS This Morning (@CBSThisMorning) April 21, 2020
Gov. Newsom does talk about the strategies that will be targeted as some restrictions are lifted (think testing and tracing), but he has been resolute for weeks now on the idea of “normal” operations (which is what fans at sporting events would be) not returning until there is either a vaccine, herd immunity, and/or a highly-effective and widely-available medical treatment. Given what we know about vaccine timelines (early next year is believed to be the most optimistic (but realistic) period), given that herd immunity likely will not be reached before the vaccine is widely distributed, and given that treatment options are still up in the air, it is impossible to imagine fan-attended baseball in California this year, and probably football this fall.
What does that mean for the NFL? Would they play without fans (or at least in California)? What does it mean for college football and college basketball? Can they even survive a year without fans? And what does it mean for other college sports that depend on the revenue generated by football and basketball for their own survival? I hope the involved bodies start having those conversations ASAP and come up with plans to preserve their teams/institutions/other sports until next year.
Leagues have to take fan-free plans seriously at this point – it may be the only way to have sports this year at all, and that, in turn, may be critical to the state of those industries (and the tens of thousands of team employees, adjacent businesses, student athletes, professors, etc.) this time next year.
It does not sound like the NFL has been seriously engaging in contingency planning discussions:
Bears GM Ryan Pace says he hasn't had any conversations about the possibility of a shortened schedule in 2020 and declines to say what he'd advocate for if the NFL couldn't play 16 games.— Jason Lieser (@JasonLieser) April 21, 2020
The NFL has the benefit of some time, but again, if you’ve got major state governors consistently saying they cannot see fan-attended sports until certain things happen – things that almost certainly will not happen until the first quarter of 2021 – then these conversations need to begin. Now.
Baseball in Asia
The KBO has started its preseason games, and the top league in South Korea has officially slated its regular season return for May 5, in just about two weeks. Incredible that it’s happening in a place that saw COVID-19 arrive the same day as the United States. I know that there were legit logistical challenges in the US that don’t exist in South Korea, but I think it would be a long-term mistake to ignore how unseriously many of our leaders took the threat at the very same time South Korea was locking down, mass testing, mass tracing, and mass masking.
Fans all over the world have an appetite for baseball:
numbers are in from 1st day of #KBO spring games. According to a report by SBS, yesterday’s games drew 2.5x more traffic (streaming) than last yr’s regular season avg. The games obviously dont mean much in terms of standings, but it just goes show how much fans missed baseball!— Daniel Kim 대니얼 김 (@DanielKimW) April 22, 2020
Hopefully, when the KBO launches, they don’t have any setbacks like they’ve seen in Japan.
Baseball in the United States
In addition to Commissioner Manfred’s optimism about some form of baseball taking place this year, you’ve got at least one team physician (speaking only for himself) who feels the same way:
“The way that you battle this disease is that you have access to testing,” Dr. Nik Verma said.
White Sox head team physician told @AdamHoge why he thinks there will be baseball this year:https://t.co/JbmfgzJFNW— NBC Sports Chicago (@NBCSChicago) April 21, 2020
Of course, Dr. Verma emphasizes that testing is key:
“The way that you battle this disease is that you have access to testing,” Dr. Verma said.
The White Sox’ head physician went on to explain that it doesn’t matter if you’re a baseball player or anyone else. If you are feeling ill and aren’t sure if you should go to work, having access to convenient testing with quick results will greatly help reduce the spread of the virus. With enough of it, Dr. Verma believes they can play baseball without having further delays because of outbreaks in clubhouses.
“That’s the way you control an epidemic. That’s infectious disease 101,” he said. “So if you take that to a baseball scenario, we’ve got to be able to say that if a baseball player has symptoms and tests positive, that we can then test the rest of the team or the rest of the people that have been in contact with that player whether it’s a teammate, a food service worker, or a family member. Establish who’s positive or negative, take all of those people out of the equation, and then continue to play baseball.
“The problem is without that access to testing, what happens now is somebody tests positive, and then all the sudden, you have to quarantine everybody associated with that, and then the White Sox or the Yankees or the Red Sox go offline, and how do you play a season when an entire team is going to go offline for two weeks at a time?”
If you can’t do very regular testing, you can’t safely play baseball before the virus is eradicated. It’s as simple as that. So: testing, testing, testing, testing.
