NEWSLETTER
Tucked into his report on the latest about a return to play, Jeff Passan included a bit about ongoing plans for this year’s draft, which could go off in about a month.
Recall, part of the interim deal guiding baseball this year, the league secured the right to shrink this year’s draft from 40 rounds to as little as just five rounds, but its initial proposal to the players was for ten rounds. That proposal was rejected by the players, presumably because the bonuses in the later rounds were so minimal, and the ability to sign undrafted players was so limited, that it was going to harshly reduce the pool of players coming into baseball.
But, since MLB does not actually have to agree to anything beyond what is in the previous deal, Passan’s report includes this line: “Scouting directors are waiting on the official word but told ESPN that they expect the MLB draft in June to be five rounds instead of the standard 40.”
If the ability to sign undrafted players to a reasonable bonus were loosened up, a five-round draft would be less of a problem. But, as it stands, undrafted players will be eligible to get NO MORE than $20,000, at which point you’re telling talented athletes with options: don’t bother coming to our sport.
Unfortunately, Baseball America is hearing the same about the length of the draft:
Nothing is finalized yet.
But a decision on the draft date/length is coming.
And many around the game are bracing for two things:
1) A June 10th draft
2) A five-round draft
Details, via @jjcoop36: https://t.co/P317Rybr1w— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) May 7, 2020
What’s most discouraging about an MLB decision that will limit its own talent pool? We know this is a financial decision, and yet look at the projected savings:
A five-round draft would save teams $29.58 million in bonuses when compared to a 10-round draft (assuming every team spent the entirety of their bonus pool). Those savings will not really accrue until 2021 and 2022, as the new draft rules include universal bonus deferments for all but $100,000 of signing bonuses for all draftees. The maximum a team would spend in 2020 for taking the draft from six to 10 rounds would be $500,000.
At most, cutting from 10 rounds to 5 rounds will save the average MLB team under $1 million (money which is not *lost*, mind you, it is simply spent on the rights to players who could wind up worth 10x that amount). And it’s not even $1 million immediately, it’s $1 million spread over the next two years.
I understand that every dollar saved right now is a dollar that could theoretically go toward keeping other employees on staff, so I don’t want to diminish the seriousness of a million dollars. But when you’re talking about the lifeblood of your sport? WTF. It’s asinine. I guarantee your scouts and player development people would rather have 10 rounds, so what does that tell you?
The BA piece has much more on the ramifications of these draft changes – which are not final, but “expected” – including tons of high schoolers not drafted, how teams will try to game undrafted free agents (there’s a hard cap on bonuses, but what if you raise minor league pay across the board?), how much MLB has already saved by deferring payments this year to top picks, and how teams will save in the draft by telling kids that their bonuses will drop dramatically if they go undrafted so they better agree right now at $X. The whole thing just feels really unfortunate and not entirely about temporary measures during a pandemic.
UPDATE: It’s happening.
