NEWSLETTER
The Cubs have not selected a high school player with their first pick in a draft since Albert Almora in 2012. However, I think there’s reason to believe that may change this year.
For one simple reason: a new scouting director, Dan Kantrovitz, who offers a more varied history in his selections than the Cubs have utilized recently.
Secondly, and more importantly, the odd 2020 draft structure might support it. When the Cubs have drafted from the prep ranks during the Theo Epstein regime, they have tended to do so with above-slot mid-round selections: Justin Steele, Dylan Cease, D.J. Wilson, Jeremiah Estrada, Ethan Hearn. However, I’m not sure that type of creativity will be as prominent this June. With just five rounds and heavily deferred bonus payments, we’re almost certainly going to see a higher percentage of high school seniors honor their college commitments and try again for the 2023 draft, or alternative head to junior college for a crack at next year’s draft. For teams that do not want to risk not signing one of their five picks, the safest high school selections will be made with high-bonused first-round picks.
Given all this, and the way the draft board seems to be shaping up, I think a prep player is really in play for the Cubs at 16. We have previously gone through some of the potential college pitchers and hitters, here are the names that make at the top of the prep class.
The Fantastic Four Outfielders
While college pitching is the strength of the 2020 MLB draft, the high school outfield class is a close second. Florida outfielder Zac Veen is one of my favorite players in the draft, but also someone that has solidified his place in the top 10 picks this spring. He has the swing of a future star, and I’m merely hoping he ends up in the American League.
The Cubs have been more linked, in various mock drafts, to the other three. Pennsylvania slugger Austin Hendrick is consistently ranked as the number two high school hitter in the class, and his powerful stroke certainly suggests why. There is some swing and miss to his game, however, and I think there will be concerns if he’ll be patient and hit left-handed pitching enough in the pros. It’s a boom or bust pick, but someone is going to fall in love with that power. He’s already shown in plays at Wrigley:
When Austin Hendrick hits one over the scoreboard in RF with a wood bat. Is that good? pic.twitter.com/Xp9PqpX9rg
— Scott (@FieldofDreams81) July 23, 2019
If I’m worried about anything with Tennessee outfielder Robert Hassell, it’s not his baseball skills, it’s that commitment to Vanderbilt that will give him significant leverage in complicated signing negotiations. As a player, Hassell’s draft write-up reminds a bit of Christian Yelich, with a pure left-handed swing and excellent contact skills. Not many of that type go on to develop the power that Yelich has, however, and so the risk with Hassell is one of upside. How confident are the Cubs in their abilities to maximize swings under a new coaching infrastructure?
The last player in this section is Pete Crow-Armstrong, who hails from the same California high school (Harvard-Westlake) that Kantrovitz once plucked Jack Flaherty from. The Cubs have been extremely confident in drafting out of California in recent years, and it will be interesting for scouts there to compare Crow-Armstrong against UCLA outfielder Garrett Mitchell. Both left-handed hitting center fielders that could be future leadoff hitters, but can get a bit out of sorts when they begin trying to hit for power. I could see the Cubs going with either.
The Top of the High School Pitching Class
When we look back on this draft in 10 years, it very well might be the team that best identifies the 2020 Draft’s top high school arm is the “winner” this June. There are three candidates, all with mid 90s fastballs, all with ideal starter builds, and all that could have reached the top 10 had they pitched this spring.
I find this to be especially true with Pennsylvania right-hander Nick Bitsko, who is just 17 years old, as he reclassified at the beginning of the year to become draft-eligible. Bitsko made some waves last week when he posted a recent bullpen session, and the accompanying statistical information, that pops off the page. A kid his age with a fastball now up to 98.5 mph is something we haven’t seen much in the history of the draft, and it’s been rumored that he’s quietly surging up draft boards of late. It’s feeling like a long shot that he’s there at 16.
More baseball! pic.twitter.com/3KJrL106Mg
— Nick Bitsko (@NickBitsko14) May 26, 2020
In his last rundown on the industry’s mock drafts, Michael noted one outlet that had the Cubs taking Mick Abel, which would be their first time drafting a prep arm in the top 30 since Mark Pawelek in 2005. Like Pawelek was, Abel hails from a unique locale, Oregon, who MLB Pipeline notes hasn’t had a high schooler drafted in the first round since 1994. But Abel will break that trend because he’s a 6-foot-5 arm with a mid 90s fastball and four pitches. If there’s nitpicking to be had, it’s that Abel hasn’t consistently been above 94 with the fastball. The team that feels confidence in Abel’s recent Trackman readings and his projectability will be happy to pounce.
Which somehow leaves Jared Kelley, the Texas right-hander who has touched as high as 99 mph, as the third name mentioned here. A year ago it might have seemed a bit crazy that Kelley could be available at 16, but it now seems a possibility. Kelley is 6-foot-3 with a filled-in frame, and the rare flame-thrower that boasts a change-up as his second-best pitch. The team that selects him will likely have to rebuild his breaking ball, but that might be appealing to a Cubs organization that is teaching knuckle-curveballs to anyone that will listen in the Pitch Lab.
The Local Kid
It’s always fun when a Chicago product is in the mix for a Cubs selection, and this year offers former Little League World Series star Ed Howard. The 6-foot-2 shortstop didn’t have a chance for his season to get started this spring at Mount Carmel High School, but the Cubs surely have had plenty of looks at him in the past.
Howard is the type of smooth athlete that does everything well but nothing spectacularly, though his polish and instincts for his age are unmatched for this class. He’s an extremely hard worker, as outlined recently by The Athletic’s James Fegan, with plus footwork that stood out to his idol Tim Anderson. I think it’s the quote in Fegan’s story from his high school coach – “the most jaw-dropping things I’ve seen him do are definitely on the defensive side of the ball” – that was most intriguing for me. Howard is a pure shortstop, and when combined with his batspeed, that’s an exciting prospect.
His selection would not only be a fun story, it would be an exciting one for the Cubs future.
The Best of the Rest
Ready to get going! #Athlete pic.twitter.com/uI26ps6QxN
— Tyler Soderstrom (@tylersode) May 31, 2020
