Every year, FanGraphs releases a ranking of the top-50 players with the most trade value (think the right combination of talent, youth, remaining control, etc.), and every year since 2015 the Chicago Cubs have been featured prominently.
And while having players with immense trade value doesn’t necessarily make you a contender, a large enough number of the right types of players can indicate a very healthy organization. I think you’ll see what I mean based on the players and their respective rankings from the past:
2015: Kris Bryant (4th), Anthony Rizzo (7th), Addison Russell (32nd), Jorge Soler (50th), Jake Arrieta (Honorable Mention)
2016: Kris Bryant (3rd), Anthony Rizzo (6th), Addison Russell (31st), Willson Contreras (HM)
2017: Kris Bryant (4th), Anthony Rizzo (8th), Willson Contreras (19th), Addison Russell (40th), Jose Quintana (42nd), Kyle Schwarber (HM)
2018: Kris Bryant (11th), Willson Contreras (28th), Anthony Rizzo (38th), Kyle Schwarber (HM), Javy Baez (HM),
2019: Kris Bryant (25th), Javy Baez (34th)
At their peak, the Cubs had somewhere between 4-5 players in the top-50 overall (including two in the top-10) and at least another one or two in the honorable mentions category. But as you can see, they not only dropped down to just two players last season, their best/most valuable players weren’t anywhere near the top-10.
Well, I’m sorry to say the drop continued this season … all the way down to zero:
Our 2020 Trade Value Series wraps up as @craigjedwards picks his top 10. Spoiler: Mike Trout made this part of the list. Further spoiler: He's not in the top three! Who is? Well what sense would it make to give that away? https://t.co/up1s1bs124
— FanGraphs Baseball (@fangraphs) August 21, 2020
Kyle Hendricks comes in for an honorable mention and that’s it.
Now, listen. There is plenty of room to argue with some of these rankings and like I said, having a team loaded with great trade assets has very little to do with success *this season* … but it does say a lot about the future of the franchise. Indeed, we’ve known for a while now that 2021 – if not this season – could be something of a last dance for what’s left of the World Series roster we fell in love with (plus any of the talented players they’ve picked up along the way), but it’s important to come to terms with that.
At the end of this season, the Cubs are going to lose Jose Quintana, Tyler Chatwood, and Jon Lester to free agency. And at the end of 2021, they risk losing Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Javy Baez, Craig Kimbrel, and Kris Bryant.
That leaves just 1 season plus about 36 games together.
There are plenty of intriguing prospects in the pipeline (Nico Hoerner, Miguel Amaya, Brennen Davis, Brailyn Marquez), while guys like Willson Contreras (through 2022), Ian Happ (through 2023), Yu Darvish (through 2023), and Kyle Hendricks (through 2024) should be here for a good while longer. But the core group could be on their way out and that leaves the Cubs without even one of the top-50 “most valuable” players in the game.
Winning in real life is always going to be more important than boasting the best on-paper assets – and right now the Cubs are in first place – but I also can’t wait for this team to be back in the top-half of these rankings, signaling a bright, young, sustainable and talented future ahead.