NEWSLETTER
Rarely will you see a player change his public perception as dramatically and universally as Yu Darvish has in Chicago.
Sure, Cubs fans were happy enough to get him on what seemed to be a quality deal at the time – and even more so today (6 years, $126M) – but that opinion changed quickly and downward during his first season in a Cubs uniform.
During Darvish’s first six starts in 2018, he walked 16 batters and allowed 20 earned runs over just 30.0 innings pitched. Soon thereafter, a couple of arm injuries and two failed comeback attempts ended his first Cubs season at just 40.0 IP (4.95 ERA, 11.7% walk rate). Given that you expect to get most of the value of a large free agent contract in the first couple seasons of any deal, this was a massive letdown, the likes of which quickly led to plenty of unfair and cruel accusations of his physical and psychological fortitude.
But Darvish didn’t let it get him down.
Instead, he healed up over the offseason and leaned further into the public eye, making himself more available than ever on social media (via Twitter and his YouTube channel), while improving and more frequently deploying his English language skills, which I offer only as a symbol of his desire to better connect with his fans in Chicago.
The start may have been slow again in 2019, but Darvish was healthy and throwing well, and he eventually popped off. Over his last 18 starts of 2019, Darvish struck out 151 batters and walked just 12, flashing the sort of strike zone dominance that defined his early career. And pairing that bounce back on the field with exceptional courage and likability in real life completely flipped the script on his tenure with the Cubs. Everybody loves Yu Darvish.
And now here we are in 2020, where a 34-year-old Darvish is an early Cy Young candidate in the National League, literally throwing harder and better (with an even deeper arsenal of pitches) than he ever has in his career.
Some highlights:Â
•  31.0 K% (10th in MLB)
•  4.2 BB% (7th in MLB)
•  .209 AVG (20th in MLB)
•  1.70 ERA (5th in MLB)
Today, you’d be hard pressed to name too many Cubs more universally beloved that Yu Darvish. And he’s feeling pretty darn good about that, himself (via The Athletic): “I have a confidence right now,” Darvish said. “I feel really good, especially today, I have a little power in my body. I was not thinking anything about the past, my numbers. Just focusing on each pitch.”
Sahadev Sharma grabs quotes from Darvish’s teammates and manager – all of which you should check out – but Kyle Schwarber’s words stuck with me the most: “It’s just filthy, nasty,” Schwarber said of Darvish. “No one’s looking forward to facing Yu Darvish when he’s on the mound. He’s got all the confidence in the world right now …. When he toes that mound, we got a pretty good feeling.”
As far as why this is all working out so well, Darvish lends credit to his heater, which he believes he’s blowing by guys this year more than usual. And like I mentioned, that tracks with the data:
Pitch Info has his four seamer up at 96.3 MPH this season, after averaging 94 MPH for his career and there are similar leaps for his cutter and sinker, as well. That’s … not usually what happens when guys turn 34 and that’s not lost on Darvish:Â “I feel weird …. Most people, when you get old, you (lose) velo or stuff. Me, I feel really good, more than when I was 25, 26. I feel weird.”
Considering that the Cubs still have Darvish for three years and $59M after 2020, those feelings of weirdness, in this case, are a VERY good sign.
But that’s not the only good sign. Dan Syzmborski just re-ran Darvish’ ZiPS projections at FanGraphs and even after a big post-2019 bump, the early season success here in 2020 has effectively revived his projections from the dead:
As Szymborski points out, according to ZiPS, Darvish had previously lost about half of his projected 18 WAR after the injuries (2018) and ineffectiveness (2018 through the first half of 2019). But the new data from the second half of 2019 and first part of 2020 gains nearly all of it back. And that’s with fairly conservative inning totals, to boot. If Darvish stays healthy, there’s reason to believe he can continue producing at an elevated level over a longer period of time, earning even more WAR in the process.
But even if Darvish is worth just the 8.6 WAR over the final three years of his deal with an ERA somewhere between 3.39 and 3.76 as projected above, the Cubs will be absolutely thrilled with their investment. And make no mistake, I suspect he can do even better than that, particularly next year, but … man that would be plenty good.
And as for the rest of this season, ZiPS is projecting him to finish with a 2.47 ERA and 2.4 fWAR, which is projected to lead the entire National League, as he does right now. It’s not crazy to say he’s a legitimate Cy Young candidate, if not one of the early favorites in the National League.
All things considered, Darvish’s time in Chicago is going quite well.
