The Cubs Have Hurt Themselves More with the Bases Loaded Than Any Team in Baseball

It’s been a minute since we last checked in on the Chicago Cubs’ uniquely fatuous efforts with the bases loaded, and in the intervening weeks, they actually hit a ball hard! Kyle Schwarber crushed a grand slam against the Reds last weekend. It was so nice.

Unfortunately, it was also so unique.

The Cubs are now up to 50 plate appearances in baseball with the bases loaded, second most in baseball. And when you include yesterday’s impotence, their egregiously bad slash line is down to .186/.220/.256 with a 32.0% strikeout rate. Their 26 wRC+ as a team means, in a situation when they are *supposed* to *overperform* their typical numbers, the Cubs have actually been 74% worse than the league average hitter in an average situation.

Although the Royals have somehow managed an even more abysmal .087/.120/.087 slash line, they’ve done it in half the plate appearances. That means the Cubs have actually done more damage to themselves than the Royals: the Cubs’ negative 4.9 weighted runs above average with the bases loaded is the worst in baseball.

It doesn’t help when the Cubs eschew a good match-up, either. With the bases loaded and one out in the 6th yesterday, David Ross stuck with Jason Kipnis against a lefty, despite the fact that David Bote and Nico Hoerner were both available. Kipnis hasn’t really managed lefties well in four years.

Here was the explanation on the decision, for what it’s worth (The Athletic):

“We like [Kipnis’s] ability to get on base right there,” Ross said. “He’s faced lefties plenty of times, we liked the matchup, the card liked the matchup. I liked the matchup.”

It’s a small sample size this season, but despite Kipnis’ .091 batting average against lefties, he has a crazy .412 on-base percentage against them, buoyed by a 35.3 percent walk rate. But in this instance, Kipnis struck out and Cameron Maybin flew out to end the threat.

For his career, Kipnis has a walk rate of 7.4 percent against lefties, but the southpaw he was facing, Sam Howard, walks lefties at a 14.3 percent rate. You can see Ross’ thinking here in the sense that if Kipnis draws a walk, it forces in a run and gives Maybin a chance to face a lefty where a flyball can tack on another.

I guess. But again, Kipnis has struggled against lefties for four years, so why would you put much stock in him having a big walk rate this year in a tiny sample? And if you forced the Pirates to bring in a righty to face, for example, Bote, then you’re getting a righty against Bote and Maybin, each of whom actually have slightly reverse splits. And heck, even if the Pirates stuck with the lefty against Bote, he’s still better in that spot than Kipnis.

(Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)

written by

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

Latest News

UConn vs. Illinois Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Elite Eight

The No. 1 seed UConn Huskies (34-3) are 8.5-point favorites to advance to the Final Four when they play the No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (29-8) in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight on Saturday at TD Garden, airing on...

Alabama vs. Clemson Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Elite Eight

The No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (24-11) and No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers (24-11) will both be vying for a spot in the NCAA Tournament Final Four when they meet on Saturday at Crypto.com Arena, tipping off at 8:49...

How to Watch UConn Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: Live Stream or on TV

The No. 1 seed UConn Huskies (34-3) will take on the No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (29-8) in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight on Saturday at TD Garden, airing on TBS starting at 6:09 PM ET.UConn won its previous...

Alabama vs. Clemson: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

The No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers (24-11) will take the court for an NCAA Tournament Elite Eight matchup with the No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (24-11) on Saturday at Crypto.com Arena, airing on TBS beginning at 8:49 PM ET,...

Big Ten Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 29

There is one game on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature Big Ten squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That matchup is the Gonzaga Bulldogs versus the Purdue Boilermakers.How to Bet on Big Ten Games[lasso ref="draftkings-promo-1"...

SEC Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 30

The Friday postseason college basketball slate includes two games featuring an SEC team in action. Among those games is the Creighton Bluejays playing the Tennessee Volunteers. Here are our recomendations for the best bets on action throughout the conference.How to...

Big 12 Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 30

There is one game on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature Big 12 squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That matchup is the Duke Blue Devils versus the Houston Cougars.How to Bet on Big 12 Games[lasso...

ACC Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 29

There are two games on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature ACC squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That includes the Duke Blue Devils versus the Houston Cougars.How to Bet on ACC Games[lasso rel="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"]Best ACC...

Big East Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 29

There are three games on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature Big East squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That includes the Creighton Bluejays versus the Tennessee Volunteers.How to Bet on Big East Games[lasso ref="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"...

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Atlanta Braves begin their season as -126 favorites in a road tilt against the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday at 3:05 PM ET, live on BSSO.Atlanta's Spencer Strider gets the start, and he'll go against Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler.Braves vs. Phillies...

more cubs news