NEWSLETTER
I really cannot underscore enough that no matter how you rejigger a lineup, it makes only a very, very small difference relative to the performance of the players themselves. That is to say, even if you optimize the lineup perfectly on paper, you (1) won’t necessarily see huge benefits over a small sample relative to an imperfectly optimized lineup; and (2) might risk further performance degradation among players who aren’t comfortable where they’ve been moved.
That said, at some point, you have to making changes, right? It’s September 6. There are three weeks left in the season, and the Cubs are trying to hold onto a slimming lead in the NL Central. Either you make the changes now and ride them through the end of the season, or you accept your fate and stick with the lineup as you’ve largely constructed it this year. I can see the arguments for each, but if it were me, I’m telling the guys, “Hey, it’s a weird year, I know none of this is a reflection of true talent, but some guys are hotter than others, and we want to see them get more plate appearances.”
Thus, if I’m David Ross, I’m moving Javy Báez and Kris Bryant down the order. It doesn’t mean I don’t love those guys. It doesn’t mean they haven’t been awesome for a long time. It doesn’t mean I think they’re toast. It just means they seem to be off in a way that I don’t know they can reclaim on a dime. These guys are team-first pros, they know they are struggling, so you could fairly presume they understand a restructuring is in order. Heck, they might appreciate some of the pressure being taken off.
Right now, Javy Báez’s is hitting .195/.233/.362 and his 54 wRC+ is the third worst mark in all of baseball among qualified hitters. Kris Bryant is hitting even worse, .173/.247/.296 with a 47 wRC+, which would be second worst in baseball if he had enough PAs to qualify. In a normal season, there’d be so much time for these guys to work it out. This year? You’re talking about giving two of the three worst performing hitters in all of baseball some of the most PAs on your team. How can you justify that?
Moreover, it isn’t just the past results. Even by the expected numbers, Báez (.286 xwOBA) and Bryant (.304) have been terrible this year (as contrasted with some guys who’ve clearly hit into hard luck in a small sample like Anthony Rizzo, David Bote, and Willson Contreras). On the Cubs, only Victor Caratini (.284) has been worse. Báez and Bryant are not only not getting results, they aren’t consistently making worthwhile contact/taking walks/putting the ball in play. Their at bats are not helping the Cubs win games right now, and they are batting in two of the most important spots in the lineup.
For what it’s worth, I’d start looking at something like this if I were David Ross on typical days (obviously shifting personnel around lightly for match-ups/rest as necessary):
1. Ian Happ, CF
2. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
3. David Bote, 2B/3B/DH
4. Jason Heyward, RF
5. Willson Contreras, C
6. Kyle Schwarber, LF
7. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF
8. DH of the Day
9. Javy Báez, SS
Not only does this lineup better coordinate who is getting the most PAs, it better emphasizes guys like Bote and Heyward, who are working great PAs and smoking the ball (Heyward getting the results, but Bote’s quality of contact isn’t far behind – plus, the three hole is statistically slightly less important than the four hole). You don’t hate the idea of Báez at nine, since when he does get on base, you like having him on there for the top of the lineup since he runs so well. You’re still mostly doing the L-R-L-R thing that appears to remain a priority for the team.
Another comment on Bote, since I reckon that’ll be the controversial part of this. He’s hitting .214/.327/.417 this year with a 102 wRC+, so only slightly above average results. But his 25.5% strikeout rate, sadly, is better than some of your other right-handed options there, he’s walking at a whopping 13.3% clip (he’s gonna take a good PA if and when the top two guys reach), he’s got just enough speed that he’s not a guaranteed easy double play when he puts one on the ground, and most importantly, he’s slapping the crap out of the ball such that his expected numbers are third best on the Cubs, behind only Happ and Heyward. Also, his 102 wRC+ is (again, sadly) bested by only four Cubs regulars. So it’s not even like he’d be that out of place in that regard.
Back to Báez and Bryant. I do get how complex this kind of thing goes. You’re potentially damaging these two guys between the ears a bit – and maybe disrupting the clubhouse – in exchange for an incremental improvement over three weeks of a weird season. If the Cubs, who know these guys a lot better than I do, decide a change isn’t worth it, then what can I say? I can look only at the numbers, make logical projections and predictions, and conclude what I conclude. There could be innumerable reasons I might be wrong.
And I also feel for how this all must be weighing on Bryant and Báez, in particular, each of whom was coming into 2020 at the nexus of either landing a huge extension with the Cubs, or building toward free agency after 2021. Then the triple whammy of the pandemic, the financial crush, and short-season terrible performance. It has to suck in ways we can’t quite entirely contemplate. But for them and for the Cubs, you have to throw that out at the moment, you have to get through this season as best possible for all involved, and then you kinda have to recalibrate expectations for 2021. Whether that means one or both guys decide it’s time to accept an extension that looks nothing like what they were hoping last year, or whether that means they commit to balling out in a walk year in 2021, it’s too late – and also too early – to worry about that part of the conversation right now. Just win games this month.
