NEWSLETTER
When the Cubs brought in Jason Kipnis on a minor league deal late in the offseason, there was a strong expectation that he’d make the team, and there was a mild hope that he could contribute meaningfully in a platoon. It’d been several years of downswing for the former star, but there were some signals under the hood that he might still “have it” if he mostly faced righties.
Kipnis, indeed, made the Cubs, and has been part of the rotation group at second base. There, he’s been properly limited in a part-time role, and I just wanted to give the guy shouts today. Because he does still have it.
Through 94 plate appearances this year, Kipnis is hitting .273/.394/.494, good for a 138 wRC+, which would actually be the highest mark of his career. Through 30 games, together with average defense at second, he’s already been worth 0.9 WAR, nearly equal to his value all of last season (1.1).
There are definitely some small-sample oddities suggested in there, of course, from a .400 BABIP to a 17.0% BB rate to a 31.9% K rate to a .221 ISO. Every one of those numbers is extremely extreme for him, so I’m not so sure what we’re actually looking at in terms of future projections. His hard contact rate and launch angle look pretty normal for him, so there’s no obvious explanation there in terms of swing changes. On the balance, it looks like he’s gotta fortunate with balls in play, has probably been unfortunate on the strikeout side (yes, there is a bit of luck there in smaller samples), and over a longer horizon he probably sees some reduction in the power and walk rates, too.
All that said, he’s produced so far. He’s squaring the ball up really well (his barrel rate is third best on the Cubs behind Kyle Schwarber and David Bote), his line drive rate has ticked up, and his expected wOBA is still decent at .340.
Is his slash line better than it “should” be? Yeah, probably. But has he likely actually been a better-than-average hitter when put in the right spots? Absolutely. And in a second base platoon for a veteran who brings a lot to the clubhouse, you’ll absolutely take that. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the conversations about a 2021 reunion start sooner rather than later.
.@TheJK_Kid in September:
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) September 7, 2020
⚾️ 7-for-15
⚾️ 2 2B
⚾️ HR
⚾️ 5 RBI pic.twitter.com/JxPdcgSPYe
