If the Cubs had an OBVIOUS third starter right now behind Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks, I wouldn’t mention things like playoff experience and playoff success as tiebreakers. After those first two, you just want your next best starter taking the ball.
But for the Cubs right now, I don’t know that they have an obvious next best starter. Alec Mills and Jon Lester have each had huge ups and huge downs this year, Jose Quintana is just not going to be stretched out enough to give you a real start, Tyler Chatwood is hurt and won’t be back soon, and Adbert Alzolay has shown flashes of excellence this year, but maybe not enough to be sure he can start a postseason game.
So, with all that in mind, I’ve been assuming that Lester was going to get the nod as the Cubs’ “third” starter in the postseason. He’s seen great results lately, he has demonstrated that the postseason doesn’t bug him, and he’s had so much affirmative success when asked to step up in the biggest games. Maybe he’s not the same guy he was physically in the past, but there’s something to be said for knowing for sure that the pressure isn’t going to affect him in a negative way.
To that end, each of David Ross and Tommy Hottovy strongly suggested this week that, when it comes to the third starter in the postseason, it’s going to be Lester.
From Ross, at The Athletic: “Jon’s experience goes a long way for me. Putting somebody out there that can handle the moment, I think, is very powerful. I’m going to bet on Jon Lester in a postseason environment before I would maybe a rookie …. He’s going to handle that stage, which is a bigger stage than people give it credit for, better than most because he’s been there. I think it actually raises his game. As many times as I’ve seen him on that stage, I think it makes him better, whereas I don’t think I could say that about a lot of people I’ve played with in those environments. He definitely takes it to the next level and is able to harness all the things that go with that and step out there and perform.”
From Hottovy, on 670 The Score: “This is just from me, I don’t know how you go into a postseason and not trust a guy with the storied history and the guy who has been in the postseason and pitched some of the biggest games, if it’s Game 3 and … our season is on the line, I don’t know how you don’t trust Jon Lester with the ball in some of the biggest moments. Regardless of how he’s pitched lately, just because of who he is. You add the fact that Jon is now, I believe, has given up two runs in his last 17 innings, he’s really throwing the ball well. What he has worked on over the last few weeks, just kind of simplifying things, getting back to being who he is and what makes him tick has shown on the field. Being honest with you guys right now, knowing that we have a Jon Lester on the team, I don’t know how you don’t use a guy like that in a Game 3 scenario.”
I really don’t think those are meatbally takes, given the options the Cubs have. It all just sounds right to me.
For that first round series, you’re gonna have a lot of off-days after the third game anyway in preparation for the bubble, so you can afford to be very aggressive in pulling Lester if he looks shaky. Then, in the NLDS, you’re gonna potentially play five games in five days, so you’ll need Lester to make a start anyway.