One of those data points I like to wrap up with a bow after the regular season is where the Cubs will draft the following season.
Despite the unusual and shortened 60-game season in 2020, the league decided to go the usual route for draft order in 2021, and follow the reverse regular season standings.
The Cubs finished the regular season at 34-26, winning the NL Central, with the 9th best record in MLB. Thanks to the Houston Astros’ sign-stealing punishment, the Cubs bump up an additional spot, so they’ll be picking 21st in the first round next year.
For context on picking 21st, the Cubs picked at 16 this year, landing the top prep shortstop prospect in the draft, Ed Howard. In 2019, the Cubs picked 27th, drafting starting pitching prospect Ryan Jensen. In 2018, the Cubs picked 24th, drafting infielder Nico Hoerner. And in 2017, the Cubs had first rounders at 27 and 30, taking college pitchers Brendon Little and Alex Lange.
Typically, the draft features a clear top tier of five-ish prospects, and a clear second tier of the next 10 to 15 or so. Around 21, you’re usually able to land a prospect in the top few of your draft board (after the sure-fire guys that you know won’t make it to you). They’re right at that cusp, depending on the depth of the draft. Given that there were just five rounds in 2020, it’s possible the crop in 2021 could be considered exceptionally deep if a lot of the top guys take steps forward (if, you know, they’re able to play baseball in the spring).
Right now, the draft is tentatively expected to be about 20 rounds going forward, though that’s not full settled, as a bunch of changes are coming to the draft.