NEWSLETTER
We have already spent a good deal of time talking about top KBO shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, and for good reason: he’s among the best players in that league, is only 25, and projects to be a very good MLB-caliber player (who can be had, in his prime, for only cash).
But Kim may not be the only star middle infielder coming over to MLB this offseason from an Asian baseball league: there’s also NPB star second baseman Tetsuto Yamada.
Yamada, 28, is one of the best hitters in Japan, is an excellent defensive second baseman, and could wind up posted this offseason if his NPB team feels like his price tag will be reasonably high. The rubs there are both the pandemic (we have no idea what teams are going to be willing to pay for guys like Kim and Yamada this offseason) and the change to the posting system that made payments to NPB teams much lower. Even if Yamada landed a $40+ million contract – no sure thing in this environment – his team might receive only $10 million, or half what a major posted player would’ve netted them just a couple years ago. His club might simply decide it is worth it to keep a superstar.
But let’s say Yamada’s team decides to post him, or he strenuously asks for it and they oblige. Like Kim, Tetsuto can be an international free agent after next season, so maybe his team decides something now is better than nothing next year.
Is he a guy the Cubs should be in on?
Well, I mean, he’s a 28-year-old second baseman who plays good defense, has great speed, and has been one of the best bats in the competitive NPB for a half-decade now, so … obviously yes? Right?
We can’t translate stats perfectly, and he’s obviously seen a blip here in the shortened 2020 season, but generally, Yamada rakes:
Throw in the good defense and top-tier speed, and you can see the intrigue. He’s been called Japan’s Mike Trout. That seems quite a bit much, but obviously Yamada’s really good.
You can’t assume that players coming from NPB will all translate in performance the same way, but I’d imagine folks will point to the two most recent transitions – Shogo Akiyama and Yoshi Tsutsugo – as guys whose OPS dropped 200 to 300 points this year in the jump from NPB to MLB. Maybe fair. Maybe not. It’s worth noting that this season was bizarre and short and hard to really make much sense of, and also, neither Akiyama nor Tsutsugo have been quite as good at the plate as Yamada.
That said, BA’s late 2019 scouting report on Yamada suggested that, while the speed and glove will play, it’s fair to question whether he’d show nearly as much power in MLB (not only because of the pitching, but because his home park in Japan is apparently quite cozy).
I don’t get the sense that Tetsuto is viewed as quite the same caliber of potential signing as Kim, both because of the positional advantage and the age difference, but the competition quality is much higher in the NPB. It’s possible Tetsuto’s bat is actually much better than Kim’s – I’m not a scout so I couldn’t say. The pro’s would have to earn their salaries figuring out whether either guy is a good bet to transition well.
To that end, my initial question remains: should the Cubs go after Tetsuto if he’s posted? I mean, sure, why not? The cost is the big question, but it’s not as if the Cubs have a clear hold on second base for 2021 at the moment (Nico Hoerner likely will need some time at AAA). Why not see if you can take a low-ish cost swing on a guy who has been a superstar in Japan, and see if he’s one of the guys who actually does translate well to MLB? It’s not like it never happens. And it’s also not like the Cubs are in a spot where they absolutely can’t take any risks … they kinda might as well at this point. If Yamada doesn’t come at a cost that entirely breaks the (extremely tight) budget, and if the Cubs’ scouts like the bat, I say go for it.
We’ll keep tabs to see if Tetsuto winds up getting posted this fall. In the meantime, enjoy some highlights:
Fans: Learn Tetsuto Yamada's name.
Pitchers: Fear it. https://t.co/FG09FGa7Se #WBC2017 pic.twitter.com/ZNNjgcDX7I
— MLB (@MLB) March 14, 2017
