NEWSLETTER
The qualifying offer decisions are in, and they are mildly surprising in how normal they seem. That seems good!
Mark Feinsand has the report, and subsequently confirmed that these six are official:
The following players will be extended $18.9M qualifying offers before the 5pm ET deadline, per source:
Trevor Bauer, Reds
Kevin Gausman, Giants
DJ LeMahieu, Yankees
JT Realmuto, Phillies
George Springer, Astros
Marcus Stroman, Mets— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) November 1, 2020
More or less, those are the six players you would have pegged to receive a qualifying offer in this class in a normal year, with only Bauer, Realmuto, and Springer definite locks in this market. Heck, I’m not even sure I would’ve said Kevin Gausman would get one in a normal year. The fact that he received one, together with Stroman and LeMahieu, tells me that, for all the option declines, teams are not necessarily expecting this offseason to be a total freeze out.
The six players will now have a week to decide whether to accept the offer, which will give us another data point. Again, even in a normal year, I could make a pretty good argument for Gausman and Stroman to accept, so if they do not, then clearly their agents feel like there’s a good market out there, pandemic be damned.
Another little note from this? Yes, there’s the hope of draft pick compensation when you make these offers, but you can only do it if you’re OK with the guy saying yes and taking the offer. Doesn’t this further reinforce the idea that, even in a bad revenue situation, teams are more willing to take a chance on a one-year deal, even at a higher price tag? Could be a decent sign for the Cubs’ possible trade pieces.
A reminder on how this stuff works:
Losing a Qualified Free Agent Specifics:
If the team losing a free agent paid the luxury tax last season (i.e. had a big payroll), their compensation pick comes after the fourth round.
If the team losing a free agent received revenue sharing money last season (i.e. has a small market) and watches the free agent sign a contract worth at least $50M, the compensation pick comes after the first round.
Signing a Qualified Free Agent Specifics:
If the team signing a qualified FA paid the luxury tax in the preceding season, it will lose its second AND fifth-highest picks in the draft (regardless of round), as well as $1M of its international bonus pool in the upcoming period. Ouch.
If the team signing a qualified FA did not pay the luxury tax, but does contribute to revenue sharing (i.e. larger market teams with more reasonable payrolls), it would lose its second highest pick in the draft and $500K of it’s upcoming international bonus pool.
If the team signing a qualified FA did not pay the luxury tax and also received revenue sharing money last season, it loses ONLY its third-highest pick in the draft.
