NEWSLETTER
Although the remains the case that the story of the pandemic and COVID-19 has import and consequences that stretch so much further than the sports world – it’s hard to imagine too many of us haven’t yet been impacted personally in some way – that’s our lens. Sports, and the pandemic’s impact on sports.
We’ll circle to the sports in a moment. First, the state of things.
This week, Pfizer was the first vaccine manufacturer to reveal positive results (90% efficacy) from Phase 3 of its trials, and while we are waiting on the full data and peer reviews, people are very optimistic. It was never a lock that a vaccine would be successfully developed, much less at this pace, so these kinds of positive signs are heartening, to put it mildly.
That’s especially true given the state of the state of the pandemic, where deaths are again on the rise, hospitalizations are hitting a new peak, and new cases are exploding:
Our daily update is published. States reported 1.2 million tests and 131k cases, the highest single-day total since the pandemic started. There are 62k people currently hospitalized with COVID-19. The death toll was 1,347. pic.twitter.com/WPoX9Nj7ef
— The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) November 11, 2020
Unfortunately those spikes aren’t just going to stop on a dime, and I don’t know to what extent human behavior is changing right now to create a “top” in the coming weeks. The election, important as it was, really distracted from the public messaging about trying to remain vigilant about the virus. Unfortunately, as more people cluster in the colder weather and with the holidays ahead, it could be a rough few months.
Still, the vaccine news is worth celebrating, in large part because if this version “works,” it’s a really good sign for the others in development:
Although the estimate of the efficacy of the vaccine could change as the study is completed, it is close to a best-case scenario. That also bodes well for other vaccines in the late stages of testing, including those developed by Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Johnson & Johnson.
“If that headline really number really holds up, that is huge. That is much better than I was expecting and it will make a huge difference,” said Ashish Jha, the dean of the School of Public Health at Brown University. He cautioned, however, that it is always difficult to evaluate science via press release and that researchers will need to see the full results. He noted that side effects are something to watch, because even if there are no serious long-term complications, people feeling sick for a day or two could lead some to be hesitant to take a vaccine.
As for the vaccine process, Pfizer is expected to apply for an emergency use authorization later this month, which would mean that front-line workers and the highest-risk individuals could start receiving doses before the end of the year. If other vaccine manufacturers follow soon thereafter, things *could* be looking good for the first half of next year.
To that end, Dr. Anthony Fauci – who has been optimistic about the vaccine process, but who is guided by science and isn’t prone to creating wild expectations – says that his guess is the vaccine(s) could be widely available to low-risk individuals by late April 2021. In other words, while that doesn’t mean the vaccine is IN EVERYONE by late April, it does mean, by his best guess, you’d be able to schedule an appointment and go get it then, regardless of your risk level or front-line status or whatever.
So, in theory, if enough people got the vaccine, the pandemic could be broadly under control by May/June of next year. That presumes, of course, that the full data and medical science support that these are safe and effective vaccines. If that proves to be the case, however, then you better believe I’m going to be an evangelist for everyone, everywhere going to get the vaccine – not just to protect themselves, but because that’s how you stamp out the virus from circulation. Cut off as many hosts as possible as quickly as possible. There’s a long time between now and April, so I hope the time is used wisely to (1) ensure that any vaccines are indeed safe and effective, and (2) convincing people on the fence that it’s worth getting the vaccine.
So, then, the sports angles.
The biggest that comes to mind, given the timeline here and what we know about MLB’s fears in 2021, is that April happens to be when the 2021 MLB season is supposed to really get up and going. Let’s imagine for a moment that, over the next month or two, it becomes all the more clear that effective vaccines are coming, and they can be widely deployed in April. If that happens, might MLB not try to have Opening Day pushed back a bit in the hopes that they can have significant attendance from day 1, rather than day 31? Or do that just eat that first month+ because they have more confidence that things will turn around eventually?
I tend to think the owners will want as much revenue as possible and as little expense, so if they are projecting that April will be a lost month for attendance, they may simply ask the players to push Opening Day to May 1, and have the season be only 140 games. Not that the players have to just say yes, of course.
Even having this conversation, however, is really notable for baseball, since expectations about the vaccine and attendance are what will drive budget projections for MLB teams. That is to say, as confidence in a vaccine and attendance increases (by the week? by the day?), you might see some MLB teams adjusting their 2021 budgets on the fly. The teams that have the most confidence – or the most appetite for risk – could try to move quickly while there is a perception that the market is still depressed. If they’re right, they could wind up with a haul of players on the relative cheap, AND a resumption of near-normal revenues after April. Big risk, yes, but significant upside potential.
Here’s hoping the Cubs have a medical scientist on staff to help them with their projections on the vaccine and human behavior, eh?
Since the NBA elected not to push it’s next season back any further than December, they will be kicking off long before there is a serious chance of vaccine availability, and will not be in a bubble. So, that means questions about how to accommodate fans at the height of the pandemic.
Here’s the reported plan for now:
All fans are required to wear masks (above age of 2), socially distance, undergo symptom surveys. Food and beverage are not allowed for those within 30 feet of court. Teams would have option to install a plexiglass behind benches. https://t.co/Rr0YMpebdb
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) November 11, 2020
The big question I have in that is about the availability of rapid tests. It’s long been the case that if they were available widely enough, so much of “normal life” could return, but we haven’t seen them exploding in availability and usage. No, they aren’t quite as accurate as the full test, but if they’re 85-90% accurate, then that might be good enough for purposes like a socially-distanced basketball game. The rub would be whether you’d see pushback from fans, in advance, not even wanting to bother making the drive (and buying tickets, paying for parking) if they might show up and test positive. Note that the NBA, unlike most MLB and NFL stadiums, has it a little tougher since they are entirely indoors. The level of transmission concern is a little higher.
