It’s been a long time since the Chicago Cubs had so many different types of plausible openings on the positional side of the roster, and they’ve never operated in an offseason where they might have a DH spot the next year, so historically, positional postings from Japan and Korea were interesting more for where else they might land, rather than wondering whether the Cubs could be involved. Shogo Akiyama last year, for example, was kind of an exception rather than the rule.
But this year, I feel like there are several positional postings that make me wonder if the Cubs could try to find some value. Obviously we’ve talked at length about Korea shortstop/great runner/high-contact/power righty Ha-Seong Kim, and why the 25-year-old sure feels like a great long-term play for the Cubs. We’re also intrigued by Japanese outfielder Hiruki Nishikawa as a reserve utility type.
Today, there’s a very different type of positional posting to discuss: Korea slugger Sung-Bum Na is officially now available.
The 31-year-old outfielder has long been a superstar in the KBO, raking every year and also collecting a couple Gold Gloves along the way:
That’s just a great all-around hitter. Na takes his walks, doesn’t strike out a ton, hits for average, hits for power, and even stole some bases in his younger days.
Lots of teams are going to want to go after this guy aggressively, right? Sure, it’s a translation from KBO to MLB, but when you’re talking about one of the best hitters in the KBO, the chance to get a relative bargain is worth a swing, yes?
Well, there are a few significant caveats here, which is why you weren’t hearing a ton of buzz about Na before his posting, compared to Kim, for example. For one thing, Na is 31, not 25. That matters a whole lot. For another thing, Na is an outfielder, not a versatile shortstop. That matters a whole lot.
But then there’s the knee injury. Na blew out his knee in May of 2019, which pushed off his posting by a year as he recovered and aimed to show teams he was still good to go in 2020. Generally, that proved to be true, as you can see he still hit very well. But the big concerns are how it impacts him in the outfield, how it’ll impact him overall as he ages, and whether it has already impacted him at the plate – notice the significant upward trend in strikeout rate the last two years. That 25% mark this past year? That’s actually extremely high in the KBO, and there are concerns that his swing will be even more susceptible to whiffs against better velocity and breaking pitches. He already apparently has trouble with mid-90s fastballs and/or anything elevated.
FanGraphs recently wrote up Na’s possible transition to the States, and it’s not at all optimistic. Here’s a section:
“I don’t have real high hopes for him in MLB,” the scout said. “He doesn’t have any specific separating tool outside of maybe his arm. His power is not outstanding for MLB, he’s not the type of defender you could see filling in at center. There’s a real question of how he’d do against velocity and quality breaking balls.” …
It wouldn’t surprise me if Na’s big league career follows a similar pattern to [Dae-Ho] Lee and [Hyun-Soo] Kim: A short-term deal, a roster spot out of spring training, perhaps a hot start to his career as pitchers learn where they should and shouldn’t challenge him.
Ultimately though, while I think he’s rosterable, Na will likely not be an impact player. In an optimistic scenario, he could manage a wRC+ on the right side of average as a bat off the bench, perhaps even in a platoon if he handles velocity better than I anticipate. But against premium gas and better spin than he’s ever seen, I think it’s more likely that he’s an up-and-down player. There are just too many ways to get him out.
The expectation is not for a bidding war, but instead for a team to try to take a shot on him on a very short-term, low-dollar deal (which he may not ultimately accept, and might just stay in the KBO).
Might that team be the Cubs? Well, there are reasons it could track: they have obvious holes in the outfield and/or at DH where they could give him playing time. They are going to be cautious with their spending this offseason, so these kinds of value plays could make sense if they want to try for unexpected upside.
On the other hand, are the Cubs really going to pursue a left-fielder with big power and (probably) an enormous strikeout rate? A guy who very easily could wind up a much worse version of Kyle Schwarber, the guy they just non-tendered? Yes, Na probably comes much cheaper, but you’d really only pursue him if you felt much more optimistic about how he’ll translate in MLB.
To me, this feels like much less obvious of a fit than Kim, and probably not even as sensible as Nishikawa.