NEWSLETTER
It turns out I *CAN* do something as well as an MVP quarterback.
•  The first safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine has started reaching front-line workers here in the United States, which means we’re finally at the start of a rollout that should, hopefully, result in a mass vaccination that finally ends the pandemic. A grand thing to say, yes, but also scientifically reasonable if people do what they’re supposed to do. As we look ahead to timelines, the current projections are really exciting:
Dr. Fauci says Americans with no underlying health conditions should expect to get a COVID vaccine at the end of March or the beginning of April: pic.twitter.com/Ofqk3cZHLE
— The Recount (@therecount) December 14, 2020
•  That means *IF* there are no significant hiccups in production and distribution, and *IF* other vaccines become available in the coming weeks, and *IF* everyone who should get the vaccine actually gets the vaccine, we could be looking at something approaching mass vaccination and herd immunity by late April or early May. I know that’s still a ways off, but think about what they could mean for next summer … NORMALCY. I’ll let myself dream on that, and be satisfied in knowing it’s actually scientifically possible.
•  As it relates to what we do here at BN, you can bet that MLB teams are taking note of that timeline and adjusting their expectations for fans accordingly. It’s not at all unreasonable to expect that most localities will permit at least limited attendance by April, which is the currently-projected start of the MLB season. It’s also not at all unreasonable to expect full attendance could be possible by June or July in most locations. I used to wonder about how people would feel – in terms of safety – about returning to large gatherings like that, but if the reason such attendance is permitted is because we’ve reached something like herd immunity because of the vaccine, I’m no longer sure it’s as much of a concern. There might still be other reasons people limit their spending on sports in 2021, but I’m not so sure safety, post-vaccine, is going to be the reason. That is all to say, among other things: (1) I can’t wait to go to Wrigley Field next spring or summer, and (2) the Cubs’ uncertain baseball budget should start getting more certain soon.
•  Related to all of this: I wonder at what point we start hearing serious rumors about the league wanting to push the start of the season from April 1 to May 1, maximizing the time that fans can be in the stands. If that’s going to happen, they need to get together on a decision soon, because players will start heading to spring sites after the turn of the calendar.
•  Also, shouts to the guy there in the front of the video in Columbus, Ohio getting that shot and wearing a Cubs shirt (no, not me):
That’s it, the first vaccine doses are in. pic.twitter.com/a90V4PhjFK
— Max Filby (@MaxFilby) December 14, 2020
•  A thing I noticed when perusing various stats this morning tied to the Jackie Bradley, Jr. rumor: the Cubs had just two hitters who went to the opposite field more than league average last year. And those two, David Bote (5% more than league average) and Jason Kipnis (4% more than league average) did it only barely. To be sure, you don’t HAVE TO go oppo to be successful, so it’s not necessarily an indictment of anything (for example, Jason Heyward went oppo less than he ever has in his career and he had his best season with the Cubs by far). But I will note that the Cubs do/did have some guys with such enormous bat speed and natural power that they could certainly afford to let the ball come deeper and go the other way much more than they did. Javy Báez is the obvious example there that we talk about, since he is consistently one of the best hitters in baseball in terms of results when he goes the other way (yet he did it 4% less than league average last year), but the same has been true of Kyle Schwarber, who went oppo 21%(!!!) less often than league average last year.
•  Through three games in PR, Miguel Amaya is hitting .250/.455/.625. Yup, I said three games. Here’s his homer:
Miguel Amaya with the HR. pic.twitter.com/YTQItfmKyG
— Ikhnaton and Itsacon (@thats_so_cub) December 13, 2020
•  Amaya ranked third in the latest BA Cubs prospect list, by the way, but also rated as having the best strike zone discipline in the farm system. So, to recap, you’re talking about a plus-potential defensive catcher with power, who also has excellent strike zone judgment.
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•  Lord I wish Giancarlo Stanton could just stay healthy and play. The guy is a true unicorn:
Breaking down exit velocity into 1 MPH buckets and seeing which player has the most batted balls in each bucket since 2015. pic.twitter.com/VScbPNt0oa
— Daren Willman (@darenw) December 15, 2020
