The Chicago Cubs had Yu Darvish on an affordable three-year contract, and have now traded him. A question that tees up: what does that mean in terms of what they should do with the rest of the roster? Is it smart now to sell off additional pieces for whatever you can get? Is it fine to leave it at Darvish (and Victor Caratini) and then add cheap free agent additions from here?
In a world where the trade netted the Cubs nearer-term prospects, this would’ve been an easier conversation, I think. Yes, in that situation, you’ve lost some 2022+ impact for your team, but you’ve set yourself up where you might see some of that prospect impact by then. Throw in turned around finances post-pandemic and a monster free agent class after next season, and yeah, the Cubs could easily be vastly improved in 2022 compared to 2021. So maybe, in that case, you consider selling off another short-term piece or two if you can, and aim to compete in 2022.
But that’s not what the Cubs netted in trade. Instead, VERY MUCH TO THE CONTRARY, the Cubs got extreme long-term pieces (no real clear and direct impact on 2021 or 2022+), and got a solid pitcher for 2021 only (Zach Davies). So, uh … now what?
Well, given how crappy the NL Central figures to be, I could see the Cubs just leaving it at Darvish, adding some short-term free agents from a depressed pool, and seeing what they can do in 2021. From there, they maybe extend a guy or two, and spend in free agency after this season. The commitments on the books after this year are now extremely minimal. So maybe, in that way, you compete in 2021, and you also can still compete in 2022+.
That feels like a missed opportunity, though, and it feels like a pretty big risk in that 2022+ range, since the Cubs haven’t really added impactful young talent for that range of time. Even if you could say confidently that some of the Cubs’ four new prospects are going to be future impact big leaguers, you definitely couldn’t say it’ll happen before 2024.
That is to say, if you aren’t making other moves RIGHT NOW to add impactful pieces for 2022+, then I guess I hope the Cubs don’t trade away anyone else, and just try to make a really serious go of it in 2021. Crazy, I know, after losing Yu Darvish, but I’d prefer that to the Cubs trading away more big leaguers for VERY long-term pieces. I don’t really see the Cubs as needing to tank in 2021 and 2022 and 2023, again, especially when you consider what their financial might SHOULD BE after this year in a deep free agent class. Just make a go of it in 2021, and then see where the chips fall after the season.
… unless you decide to sell off a whole lot more right now for 2022+ impact. Because if you don’t, that’s the missed opportunity.
Look, do I think the Darvish return should’ve focused on the nearer-term? Yes. But maybe the Cubs got the best talent they could, and maybe that shouldn’t dictate what the Cubs do from here. Maybe, now that Darvish is gone, the Cubs just have to look at 2021 as all about the “heavy restart,” and sell off pieces for 2022+ (even if the return for Darvish, specifically, didn’t fit into that window). Maybe in the depressed free agent class the Cubs can still find some gems for 2021, and still compete in the crappy NL Central even after selling off more from here. Something something thread the needle something something.
I know that I’m not landing anywhere firm just yet. Hey, this is all still kinda fresh, and if the return on Darvish had looked different, this conversation would be a lot easier for me to get my head around. I suppose I’m just coming to the realization that the Darvish trade, and the return it brought, doesn’t necessarily tell me enough – alone – about what the Cubs should definitely do next, much less what I expect they will do next. You’d think such a major, organization-altering trade would provide you a clearer picture, but I guess this is just another way of laying out how surprising and odd the choice of return was.
Anyway. I’m open to multiple approaches from here, but if the Cubs do wind up going the “trade away more pieces, because we’ve already started” route, I sure hope we see some nearer-term returns than the Darvish/Caratini trade netted.